Ahead of the 2024 season, 103 NFL players participated in an ESPN poll on various topics related to the league. One of the prompts asked who they thought was the most overrated player.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen "won" this distinction. Unfortunately for the league, they gave him ample bulletin board material that he has used to fuel a strong start to his 2024 campaign.
Let's look at how Allen has done this season and the odds he has of winning MVP in a revenge season against his peers.
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Josh Allen MVP odds
Allen is tied for the best odds to win 2024 MVP at Caesars Sportsbook. He is installed at +225 and has the same odds as Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The latter has had a much slower start to the year, and Allen has slightly better odds than Mahomes at other sportsbooks.
Josh Allen Stats
2023
Allen was heavily scrutinized in 2023. While he has a rocket for an arm and can tear up a defense with his legs, his play style also led to hefty turnover numbers. Allen had the fourth-most passing yards and was tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns. He had the second-most interceptions in the NFL and was tied for the fifth-most fumbles.
| Games | Passing Yards | Passing TDs | INTs | Rushing Yards | Rushing TDs | Fumbles (Lost) | |
| 2023 | 17 | 4,306 | 28 | 18 | 524 | 15 | 5 (3) |
2024
| Games | Passing Yards | Passing TDs | INTs | Rushing Yards | Rushing TDs | Fumbles (Lost) | |
| 2024 | 3 | 634 | 7 | 0 | 85 | 2 | 1 (0) |
Allen may have taken his peers' comments to heart in his version of the iconic Michael Jordan "I took that personally" meme. The quarterback isn't running the ball as much, but he hasn't needed to. From the play of his running back and his defense, Allen has been able to focus on his accuracy and decision-making, and it has paid off through three games.
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Why Josh Allen will win the 2024 NFL MVP Award
Allen doesn't even look like he is in midseason form and is lighting up defenses. This newfound accuracy will be a problem for his opponents, and the scary thing is that he is hardly running. He saw most of his rushing production this season come in Week 1 when he had 39 yards and two scores. Allen had two carries in Week 2 and six in Week 3.
It could be a way of preserving the quarterback, but dual-threat quarterbacks are cheat codes when it comes to winning MVP. He likely won't have the rushing yardage that Lamar Jackson did when he won MVP last season (821 yards), but he could certainly replicate his touchdowns on the ground (5).
Allen will win the 2024 NFL MVP if he continues passing the way he is and adds more rushing scores on the ground. Buffalo's 2024 schedule is streaky between easier opponents and hard ones, but Allen's consistency will be the key to his taking home his first MVP Award this year.
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Why Josh Allen won't win the 2024 NFL MVP Award
Allen has faced the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Jaguars this season. Arizona gave him the toughest test, and the Cardinals took the Bills by surprise. Miami's defense put up a little fight against Allen, and Buffalo blew out Jacksonville.
The Cardinals and the Jaguars are shaping up to be what we thought they were, and Miami has had some early season struggles due to injury. Buffalo will have a tough test in Week 4 against the Ravens and still have games this season against the Jets (twice), 49ers, Lions, and Chiefs.
Allen will get plenty of opportunities to show that he has turned a corner in his career, but he also has just as many opportunities to fall into the same bad habits. His numbers look great through three games, but if he starts turning the ball over and Buffalo starts losing games they shouldn't, keeping his name in the MVP conversation throughout the year will be tough.
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