Joe Burrow and the Bengals have the Chiefs' number. In three career matchups against Kansas City, Burrow has led the Bengals to a perfect 3-0 record, including a 27-20 win in Week 13 this season.
Next on the Bengals' schedule, however, is a team that has Burrow's number. A team that is 4-0 against the 2021 AFC champion quarterback. That would be the Browns.
The first two matchups between Cincinnati and Cleveland under Burrow were decided by a combined eight points. During that 2020 season, the Browns were on their way to the playoffs while the Bengals would occupy the AFC North cellar.
The story was different the next two times. Cincinnati was on its way to a Super Bowl in 2021 but was stomped by the Baker Mayfield-led Browns 41-16 in Week 9. The backups played in the teams' Week 18 matchup, but in the first meeting of 2022, Burrow's Bengals, the reigning conference champs, were again throttled, 32-13 in Week 8.
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The Browns and Chargers are the only two teams Burrow has faced multiple times without picking up a win. What is it about the Browns that have caused the Bengals issues? The Sporting News attempts to answer that question, looking in particular at the blowouts in 2021 and 2022.
Why Joe Burrow has struggled vs. Browns
Ask Burrow what makes the Browns so different from every other team, and he's pretty clear:
"Well they have Myles Garrett. That's different from everybody else," he said.
To be clear, it's not exactly as if Burrow has struggled against Cleveland. His stats in the four losses are by no means awful. He has completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 1,236 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions.
What might be a more telling stat is the 17 sacks he has absorbed, more than four per game. In the 2022 loss, ProFootballFocus charted Burrow's pressure-to-sack rate at 50 percent, his highest rate of the season. Garrett earned his third-best pass-rush grade of the season at 91.9.
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But Garrett and the pass rush aren't the full story. Plenty of teams have standout pass-rushers and have still fallen to the Bengals. A big issue, particularly in the past two games, has been early turnovers.
In the first 2021 matchup, Burrow threw a 99-yard pick-six to Denzel Ward on the first drive of the game. In 2022, the Bengals' first drive ended with Garrett tipping a pass at the line of scrimmage that was intercepted by A.J. Green.
The Bengals scored to tie the game after the Ward interception and blocked a field goal attempt after the Green pick, but in both instances, a chance to score and take an early lead over the Browns was squandered.
And Cleveland's ability to work from ahead and force Cincinnati to play catch-up has played a major role in its success against Burrow. Over the past two seasons, only the Eagles and Bills have more rushing yards when leading a game than the Browns and their 1,843 yards, according to Stathead. In those games, the Browns have run 832 plays while ahead, with 45.7 percent being rushing plays and 33.3 percent being passing plays. Further, 166 of the total plays (19.9 percent) and 85 of the 380 rushing plays while ahead (22.3 percent) have come against the Bengals.
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Even the passing offense has been effective against Cincinnati. In the 2021 Week 9 blowout, Baker Mayfield had his best game of the season with an 89.8 PFF grade. Of his passes, 18.2 percent were considered big-time throws and he had no turnover-worthy plays. In the Week 8 win in 2022, Jacoby Brissett had his second-best game of the season by PFF offensive grade. He completed 17 of 22 passes for 278 yards and a touchdown.
Certainly a major part of the Cincinnati game plan on Sunday will be taking an early lead. With a running game that features Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and Deshaun Watson, the Browns can play keep-away and limit teams' comeback chances. And if Cleveland is able to play from ahead again, it will have more opportunities to rush Burrow as the Bengals try to climb back into the game.
Some aspects of the Browns' success against the Bengals are easy to explain. Early leads have helped play into Cleveland's strengths; the rushing attack could put away the game and the pass-rush could tee off on a team that was forced into passing situations.
The fact that Burrow's two most recent games against Cleveland have been so lopsided is more of a mystery. The Bengals are hoping to solve that as they continue their late-season playoff push and attempt to end their losing skid in the Battle of Ohio.
