The 2018 Colts look an awful lot like the 2017 Chargers. That might — might — mean the 2019 Colts will look a lot like the 2018 Chargers.
You can't shoot much higher than that. Last year's Chargers, under first-time head coach Anthony Lynn in his inaugural season, started 0-4, with losses full of missed opportunities and missed kicks. They went 9-3 the rest of the way, just missed the playoffs and now are 11-3 with the inside track for home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs.
These Colts, under coach Frank Reich, started 1-5 with some crushing losses (Eagles and Texans). But with Sunday’s jarring 23-0 shutout at home against the hot Cowboys, they are 7-1 since. At 8-6, they’re not only in the thick of the wild-card race, but they’re pushing the Texans as far as possible in the AFC South.
Even excluding the mere presence of Andrew Luck, they’re worlds away from where they started, on both sides of the ball.
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Their latest two wins, over the Texans and Cowboys, are as impressive as any this season, and they followed that lone loss, a 6-0 skunking by the Jaguars that shook all of them up.
It's not a point-for-point match with the Chargers, of course. A lot of the pieces were already in place in LA (and San Diego, actually); not so in Indy, where the moves general manager Chris Ballard made have paid off, particularly with rookies Quenton Nelson on the offensive line and Darius Leonard at linebacker and on special teams. Luck, of course, has been brilliant, but they beat the Cowboys with 187 yards rushing and with Luck throwing for all of 192 and, for just the second time this season, no touchdowns.
"Complete game" was the theme of their post-game talk, that and week-to-week improvement.
"We played our best game this week," Luck said, "and that's what should happen as a football team when you focus on improving and focus on the process."
At that pace, the Colts will stay in the race until the end … and, maybe, pick up next year where they left off, the way this year’s Chargers did.
— Oh, ‘Boys —
There was a reason downplaying the 576 yards the Cowboys gained in the win over the Eagles last week was smart. That reason played out in the shutout by the Colts this week. Their 292 yards were a fierce cool-down. They committed two more turnovers to add to last week’s three. They got a field goal blocked on their first possession and stonewalled at the goal line on their second.
Everything that looked so good throughout their five-game winning streak, from Dak Prescott to Ezekiel Elliott to Amari Cooper, looked ineffective or invisible at the wrong times against the Colts.
The biggest loss, even more than their seemingly insurmountable NFC East lead, is the perception that they're The Team Nobody Wants To Face in the playoffs. The Seahawks' claim to that title was weakened later in the day with their overtime loss to the 49ers, but that doesn't transfer that shine back to the Cowboys.
On the other hand, if Jerry Jones is to be believed (and on this topic, why shouldn't he be), that was exactly the icy-cold bucket of water to the face the team needed after that win streak. Jones after the game, according to the Dallas Morning News: "Well, it just shows me that when you meet up to a good team, just because people are writing about you being in the playoffs, it doesn't mean that’s going to get you anything."
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— Eyes on Coach of the Year honors —
A last look at the Colts-Cowboys developments: Reich has launched himself into the Coach of the Year discussion. Maybe not deep into it, but the Colts' last eight weeks, and the last two in particular, are a testament to the job he has done with a team that looked early in the season as if it was in for a long, torturous rebuild.
The vote will be as contentious as last year's, for sure, when the debate (for, do not forget, the regular season and not the postseason) over the Rams' Sean McVay, the eventual winner, and the Eagles' Doug Pederson raged well into the offseason.
The Chargers' Lynn elbowed his way to the front Thursday night with his bold two-point try to win in Kansas City. The Bears' Matt Nagy is likely the co-favorite thanks to the NFC North title clinched Sunday. The Seahawks’ Peter Carroll will have to wave away the stench of that 49ers loss and lock up that seemingly inevitable playoff berth. The Saints' Sean Payton is an obvious candidate. McVay’s odds of repeating, meanwhile, have gotten longer with the Rams' back-to-back losses.
A sleeper to watch: John Harbaugh, if he gets the Ravens into the playoffs, even a division title, with rookie Lamar Jackson starting at quarterback the second half of the season.
— Eddie Jackson, Khalil Mack and more awards —
Khalil Mack is clearly a front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year. He has been since opening weekend, and he reaffirmed his credentials in Sunday's win over the Packers. But, shouldn't he be sharing the Bears’ defensive accolades, and thus the chance of winning the league award, with teammate Eddie Jackson?
The Bears may find out the hard way exactly how valuable Jackson is: On the game-clinching interception of Aaron Rodgers in the end zone, Jackson’s right ankle bent way wrong as he ran it back. The Bears were cautious immediately after the game, saying they’d wait for more tests.
Mack creates havoc up front, and Jackson capitalizes on it in the back … or causes it himself, or both. The pick on Rodgers was his sixth this season, one behind the NFL leaders. Two have been pick-sixes; both were in a five-game span, in the spotlight against division rivals, on Sunday night against the Vikings and on Thanksgiving against the Lions. He also ran a fumble back for a touchdown against the Bills, and the three non-offensive scores are the most in the league.
Jackson has been doing this since entering the league last year; he returned two turnovers for scores the day the Bears beat the Panthers 17-3 without scoring an offensive touchdown.
He won't get those votes ahead of Mack, Aaron Donald or J.J. Watt. But the year he's having should be recognized — and not in his absence, in case his injury is serious.
— Not counting the Patriots out, but, just saying —
After what has happened the last five years, the NFL is understandably gripped by a case of FOCTPO … Fear of Counting the Patriots Out. In a game, in a season, in the playoffs, people are increasingly reluctant to speak out about a fairly obvious departure from their usual dominance. It constantly comes back to bite you, and the chorus of "I told you so!" rings out the entire offseason and right through the next slip-up the following season.
The league is in the danger zone again after the Patriots' 17-10 loss to the Steelers, which again delayed their clinching the AFC East and threatened their customary first-round bye. It all might be proven moot next month. But consider these un-Patriots-like recent developments:
- Tom Brady got the Patriots to the Steelers' 11 with 37 seconds left and ended up throwing three straight incompletions.
- Earlier in the quarter, from the Steelers’ 16 and down by just four, Brady was pressured and heaved up a wild throw downfield that got picked off by Joe Haden inside the five, something a Mark Sanchez or Blake Bortles was more likely to do.
- Last week was the Bill Belichick decision to use Rob Gronkowski to help defend on what turned into the Miami Miracle game-winning touchdown.
- At the end of the first half of that same game, from the Dolphins' two, Brady took a sack with no timeouts left, letting the clock run out without a chance to score.
None of that may mean anything in the end. Nor would their three losses in five games at a time of year they rarely lose. Nor would them possibly having to play on wild-card weekend.
But in the Belichick-Brady era, the Patriots have gone to the playoffs without the bye three times, most recently in 2009. They failed to reach the Super Bowl each of those times.
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— Hopkins, Texans finally get what they needed —
The biggest benefit the Texans have reaped from having Deshaun Watson in place is giving DeAndre Hopkins the franchise quarterback he has always deserved. That performance Saturday against the Jets in the Meadowlands was the latest proof.
Watson threw Hopkins the pass he caught so acrobatically for the game-winning touchdown, then raced to the end zone with running back Alfred Blue to carry him to the sidelines when he landed on his already-aching ankle. It had a semi-Kellen Winslow-in-Miami (from an iconic 1982 playoff game) vibe to it.
While the stakes weren't as high, Hopkins’ level of play was in that range: 10 catches, 170 yards and two scores, all season highs.
Hopkins has a chance in the final two games to top his career highs in all three categories, an amazing feat considering he went for 111/1,521/11 in 2015. At 94/1,321/11 through Saturday’s game, he should surpass his numbers from last season (96/1,378/13), when he was first-team all-NFL, in his final two games, health willing.
Watson has started every game this season, a departure from last season and every season in every way during Hopkins’ tenure. Last season it was Tom Savage and T.J. Yates throwing to him. The year before: Brock Osweiler. The year before that: Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett. Before that: Ryan Fitzpatrick.
What’s happening this year in Houston should never be taken for granted.
— Dear Bills: Your quarterback can run. Act accordingly. —
The way the Bills beat the Lions — with a Josh Allen scramble and a later long touchdown pass, and with the Bills running out of running backs in the second half because of injuries — shined something of a spotlight on what's evolving in Buffalo. And, by comparison, what's evolving in Baltimore.
The Bills have gone 2-2 since Allen returned from his injured elbow, and at 5-9 following a 2-7 start, they have stopped being a punchline. Allen is making it clear he is not only an effective runner, but a fearless one. His numbers (351 yards in that four-game span) and highlights (like the touchdown run Sunday) are representative. Yet the Bills are doing relatively little designed running for him, more willing to see him win with his arm than his legs. Since his return, his pedestrian passing numbers have actually regressed: 50 percent completions, 200.3 yards a game, four touchdowns, four interceptions.
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Lamar Jackson, meanwhile, is now 4-1 as the Ravens' starter and 1-0 after being officially moved ahead of Joe Flacco, winning Sunday over the Buccaneers. He is at 58.9 percent passing, 146.2 yards a game, four scores and three picks. He engineered a final possession of 7 minutes, 8 seconds to run out the clock and clinch the win Sunday, flirted with 100 yards rushing and threw for a modest 131 yards. He has rushed for 427 yards in his five starts.
The perception, though, appears to be that Jackson still isn't an NFL passer and has a long way to go to prove he is, while Allen has a live arm around which the Bills can build. What the Bills could do if they adapt their game plan to fit Allen's skills even half as much as the Ravens do with Jackson is intriguing to ponder.
But so far, they have not. That's just as intriguing.
