Another week, another set of upsets of popular NFL survivor pool picks. As we head into Week 3, just over a quarter of survivor pool entries nationwide are still alive. And don’t look now, but this week presents more challenges, as no team is currently favored by more than a touchdown. Fortunately, the football pool experts at PoolGenius are here to help you find the best Week 3 NFL survival pool picks.
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Week 3 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Tips, strategy for picks
Always remember that the analysis below is high level and doesn't take into account the specific rules or size of your pool or the teams you've already picked. To get our pick advice for your specific pool, please check out our NFL Survivor Picks product.
Note: "Pick Popularity" numbers below refer to the estimated percentage of survivor pool entries nationwide that have already picked the team in question. Those numbers can shift over the course of the week, so make sure to check our product for the latest data.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Survivor Pick Popularity: 30% (most popular pick)
Point Spread: -7.0
The Chargers are the "largest" favorite of Week 3, as well as the most popular pick. We put "largest" in quotes there for a couple of reasons. First, this is a very tough week where there are no very big favorites. The Chargers are favored by a touchdown, just modestly ahead of six other teams favored by between 4.5 and 6.5 points.
Second, Chargers QB Justin Herbert sustained fractured rib cartilage against the Chiefs last week, and while the current expectation is that he will play through the injury, that's still not a certainty.
As a result, you may want to keep a close eye on the situation before making a decision. The latest Herbert news could still cause shifts in both the Chargers' win odds and pick popularity.
WEEK 3 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts
Survivor Pick Popularity: 25%
Point Spread: -6.5
Kansas City has very high pick popularity for a team favored by less than a touchdown. That’s somewhat understandable considering that there are no big favorites this week. People seem to be falling back on the team they think is the best and playing an opponent who got shut out last week. However, as we noted with the Chargers, there are several other teams favored by a similar amount in the betting markets.
Kansas City does have our third-highest future value rating after two weeks and will have lots of future weeks where it will be a valuable survivor pick, particularly in larger pools that are likely to still be active past Week 8.
The Chiefs’ combination of high popularity, roughly similar win odds to a bunch of other teams, and high future value make them a team we are not likely to widely recommend this week.
WEEK 3 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel | Yahoo
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
Survivor Pick Popularity: 12%
Point Spread: -4.5
The Bengals have pretty low future value after starting 0-2, and from that perspective, they are an option to at least consider.
Ordinarily, their relatively low win odds (67 percent as a -4.5 point favorite in the betting markets) would make them a team to avoid, but this isn't a normal week. With over half of the public's early picks concentrated on two teams who aren't favored by much more, the Bengals at least present a risk vs. reward payoff to think about.
Of course, a segment of survivor players will have to get over the mental block of a Bengals vs. Jets game, as New York's Week 8 upset of the Bengals last year knocked out 40 percent of still-surviving survivor entries, one of the biggest elimination events that season.
MORE POOLGENIUS: Week 3 Pick 'em pool advice
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Survivor Pick Popularity: 8%
Point Spread: -6.0
While some survivor pool players remember getting knocked out by a Bengals-Jets game last year, others may have nightmares about the Vikings losing on the last play of Week 13 to the Lions as the most popular survivor pick that week.
As of this writing, the Vikings were favored by six points against the Lions, giving them similar win odds to Kansas City this week. Meanwhile, at just eight-percent popularity, Minnesota is being picked at a rate three times lower than the Chiefs and Chargers.
That combination gives Minnesota pretty good "Expected Value" this week. The Vikings do have solid future value, though they do not rank in our top five in that metric. They play the Bears at home in Week 5 and then host the Jets and Giants later in the year in weeks we project Minnesota to have greater than 75-percent win odds.
FREE TRIAL: Week 3 survivor pool picks
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Survivor Pick Popularity: 6%
Point Spread: -6.5
After their impressive 2-0 start and a palatable upcoming schedule, the Eagles have moved all the way up to No. 2 in our survivor future value rankings behind only Buffalo. We currently project them to be favored in every remaining matchup and to have win odds of 70 percent or higher in 10 more games.
That includes this week, in which the Eagles are favored by 6.5 points over Washington, matching Kansas City's win odds and similar to the Chargers and Vikings. At just six-percent public pick popularity, they would be little used for a team with a similar risk profile to the Chiefs and Chargers. That makes for a really good "Expected Value," if you are willing to sacrifice the option to use Philadelphia in the future.
We've already seen Philadelphia's pick popularity tick up, though, and it could continue to rise throughout the week following the impressive performance they just turned in on Monday Night Football against the Vikings.
Football Picks From TeamRankings:
Survivor Pool Picks | Pick 'em Pool Picks | NFL Betting Picks
Get our Week 3 survivor pick for your pool!
Every possible NFL Week 3 survivor pick has both an expected value in the current week (based on its win odds and pick popularity) and a future value associated with saving that team to use later. Understanding those value metrics is the key to winning more survivor pools in the long term, and they can vary significantly based on the characteristics of your pool (e.g. its size and rules).
It takes a lot of data and math to figure out which pick (or combination of picks, if you're playing multiple entries) will give you the biggest edge to win your 2022 survivor pool. That's why we spent years building our NFL Survivor Picks product.
It asks you a few questions about your survivor pool, then provides customized pick advice using the latest matchup data, betting market odds, and public picking trends. It tracks the picks you've already made, and even recommends how to split up your picks if you're playing multiple entries.
There's nothing else like it, and our subscribers have reported over $3.7 million in survivor pool winnings since 2017. We invite you to try it out, and good luck in your survivor pools this week!
FREE TRIAL: Survivor, pick 'em, betting picks from PoolGenius
We invite you to try it out, and good luck in your survivor pools this week!
