Dolphins vs. Chargers odds, prediction, betting tips for NFL Week 14 'Sunday Night Football'

Vinnie Iyer

Dolphins vs. Chargers odds, prediction, betting tips for NFL Week 14 'Sunday Night Football' image

When the Dolphins (8-4) travel to face the Chargers (6-6) in the penultimate game of NFL Week 14 on "Sunday Night Football" (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), there will be big AFC playoff implications. Miami is looking to get closer to locking down at least a wild-card berth out of the East, while Los Angles is trying to get back into position.

This will make a big battle between two first-round quarterbacks taken back-to-back in the 2020 draft, Dolphins No. 5 overall pick Tua Tagovailoa and Chargers No. 6 overall pick Justin Herbert. Tagovailoa has enjoyed an efficient breakout season with new wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Herbert will have both top wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams healthy together for the first time since Week 11.

Here's everything to know about betting on Dolphins vs. Chargers in Week 14, including updated odds, trends and our expert's prediction for "Sunday Night Football."

Dolphins vs. Chargers odds for Sunday Night Football

  • Spread: Dolphins by 3.5
  • Over/under: 53.5
  • Moneyline: Dolphins -165, Chargers +135

The Dolphins are mild road favorites after losing in Northern California to the 49ers last week. The Chargers don't have much a home-field edge in Los Angeles.

 

(betting odds per Bet MGM)

Dolphins vs. Chargers all-time series

The teams have met 35 times with Miami holding a 19-16 advantage. The Dolphins have won three of the past four meetings going back to 2016. The Dolphins won 29-21 at home in the 2020 game.

Three trends to know

—60 percent of spread bettors are siding with the favorite Dolphins with their better record to take care of the small number.

—62 percent of total bettors are siding with the over given the offensive firepower of both teams passing and running.

—The Dolphins are 6-6 against the spread this season with half of their games going over. The Chargers are 7-5 ATS with also half of their games going over.

Three things to watch

The Chargers' run defense 

The Chargers are depleted on their defensive line, with starter Sebastian Joesph-Day (knee) being the latest player to miss time. They are giving up on average 151.6 rushing yards per game, down to 29th in the NFL. Miami's running game has been disappointing in averaging only 89;6 yards per game (only the Buccaneers, Chargers and Texans are worse) and 4 yards per carry. The Dolphins need to get it going based on this matchup.

The Dolphins' pass defense

The Dolphins allow an average of 233.5 passing yards per game, No. 22 in the NFL. The Chargers will be more explosive with Herbert, given Williams joins Allen, Josh Palmer, Gerald Everett, DeAndre Carter and their most dangerous pass-catcher everywhere on the field, Austin Ekeler. This is a weakness vs. strength situation for Miami.

Herbert vs. Tagovailloa

The two QBs have heard the outside noise. There is an unwritten rivalry in what's becoming a top draft class that also includes Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts. Herbert will have a bit of a chip on his shoulder that Miami passed on him for Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa will want to right the ship after struggling in San Francisco last week.

Stats that matter

41.8 percent and 43.8 percent. The first number is the rate at which the Dolphins' defense allows offenses to convert on third down, No. 24 in the NFL. The second is how often offenses convert on the Chargers' defense, No. 26 in the league. 

The Chargers, however, convert third downs at 42 percent, No. 11 in the league. The Dolphins; offense is only doing that at 38.7 percent, No. 22 in the league. A few more sustained drives and an extra finish in the red zone would be huge for L.A.

Dolphins vs. Chargers prediction

The Dolphins should run a little more to attack the Chargers and also better open up the downfield passing game to Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But they also will have trouble handling Ekeler and all of Herbert's weapons. Herbert will deliver another game-winning fourth-quarter comeback.

Chargers 30, Dolphins 27

Vinnie Iyer

Vinnie Iyer Photo

Vinnie Iyer, has been with TSN since 1999, not long after graduating from Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. He has produced NFL content for more than 20 years, turning his attention to full-time writing in 2007. A native of St. Louis, Mo. but now a long-time resident of Charlotte, N.C. Vinnie’s top two professional sports teams are Cardinals and Blues, but he also carries purple pride for all things Northwestern Wildcats. He covers every aspect of the NFL for TSN including player evaluations, gambling and fantasy football, where he is a key contributor. Vinnie represents TSN as host of the “Locked On Fantasy Football” podcast on the Locked On network. Over his many years at TSN, he’s also written about MLB, NBA, NASCAR, college football, tennis, horse racing, film and television. His can’t-miss program remains “Jeopardy!”, where he was once a three-day champion and he is still avid about crossword puzzles and trivia games. When not watching sports or his favorite game show, Vinnie is probably watching a DC, Marvel or Star Wars-related TV or movie.