The Raiders are a legitimate playoff contender. It’s been some time since that’s been uttered in the NFL, but Oakland has an effective coaching staff, ample defensive talent and an offense that perfectly meshes with the talent they’re working with.
In their last six games, they’re 4-2, with both losses coming by a combined eight points, and one of those losses was to 7-0 Denver.
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While the front office’s building of the defense through the draft has quietly paid dividends, it’s the offense that’s earning the national acclaim. Derek Carr, whose stats this year are remarkably similar to Aaron Rodgers’, has emerged as one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL, orchestrating an offense perfectly designed for him and the talent around him.
A “yards after catch” based offense
Offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave has done a tremendous job this season in utilizing Derek Carr’s strengths as an efficient, timing-based passer whose ball placement is consistently on target when he’s confident in the pocket. Carr is a streaky passer, getting into a groove as drives push on and growing in confidence with more downfield throws.
The offense does well to give Carr quick, easy reads as much as possible, including on the move. This sets up manageable third downs, and gives Carr's receivers opportunity to work after the catch. As in the play below — a quick inside-out route by Michael Crabtree that springs free — Carr hits him on time on the rollout, and Crabtree is able to pick up the first down and more.
But one of the best aspects of this offense’s simplicity is how it can build to deeper and deeper routes thanks to cornerback indecisiveness. As Carr executes quick slants and quick outs, and as defensive backs are focused more on run-after-catch containment, the offense is allowed to push further down. As in the play below, the defenders’ indecisiveness coupled with a well-placed throw from Carr give Amari Cooper an easy catch for a first-down, along with room to take advantage of his awesome after-catch upside that helped make him a top-five pick.
Carr’s touch finishes scoring opportunities
As with their gradual build of route distance, the Raiders' timing of called vertical routes and fade passes were set-up for one-on-one opportunities, capitalizing on Carr’s vertical placement and confidence to drive the ball down the field. Against the Jets, 23 of Carr’s 36 passes were passes of five yards or less, including 11 that were thrown behind the original line of scrimmage.
But it’s those efficient, consistent catch-and-runs that lull the defense into complacency, and gives outside receivers a step in redzone and vertical touch throws. The play below features under-appreciated receiver Andre Holmes faking an inside slant and then fading to the corner. The defensive back, protecting the inside slant with his body and keeping his eyes on the inside-out route, is out of position to protect the fade route. A perfectly timed and perfectly placed pass gives Holmes a shockingly easy touchdown reception.
But even more impressive this year has been Carr’s vertical placement. The offense, as stated earlier, is set-up so that, once rolling, defenders are so concerned with underneath routes and containment that vertical routes open up. Even against the Jets' strong secondary, the Raiders were able to go deep after establishing the short passing game.
Especially on the play below. It’s a well-thrown and well-anticipated throw that gives Andre Holmes his second touchdown of the day. Note as well that this is a designed vertical throw despite being third down. It’s this type of play-calling confidence and trust in Carr to finish the throw that allowed Carr to throw three touchdowns against one of the NFL’s best defenses.
Can Carr lead the Raiders to the playoffs?
The offense found it’s groove against the Jets, but in an offense predicated on efficiency in the short passing game and yards after catch, it’s very easy to go stagnant if things don’t get moving early. It’s still unclear if Carr can lead a vertical passing attack when the team is down in the second half, which is bound to happen at some point this year.
The Raiders schedule is somewhat favorable, however. Nine, maybe even ten wins remain a possibility. They’ll travel to Pittsburgh in in Week 9, but still have the Lions, Titans, and Chiefs (twice) on their schedule — games they should be favored to win.
The Jets represented a test for the Raiders to prove their offense genuinely makes them a contender, and they passed with flying colors. Carr’s progression in year two, thanks to the additions of Cooper, Crabtree and offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, has been phenomenal to watch, and is a testament to the idea of an offense molding itself to its quarterback.
They’re just 4-3, and far from a playoff lock. The Dolphins, Jets and Steelers remain hot on Oakland's tail for the same playoff spots. But Derek Carr’s orchestration of the Raiders offense has been a joy to watch, and he and the Oakland passing attack have emerged as a feared unit in the NFL.
Eric Galko is the owner and director of scouting at Optimum Scouting and OptimumScouting.com, as well as a Sporting News contributor. Follow him on Twitter: @OptimumScouting