Dak Prescott will be playing under the franchise tag for the Cowboys in 2020. Although the deadline passed for him to get a lucrative long-term deal a week ago, he still will earn $31.4 million guaranteed this season.
To some, it would seem silly that Prescott didn't agree on a contract that would have paid him up to $35 million in average annual salary with $110 million guaranteed. But of all franchise QBs, after Patrick Mahomes got his unprecedented mega deal with the Chiefs, Prescott was best positioned to wait for a better deal.
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What likely caused both Dallas and Prescott to not agree were the years involved. He wouldn't have gotten Mahomes' 10 years, but Prescott and his representation were wise to want more than five years.
At $35 million a season, Prescott would have been even with the pre-Mahomes top-of-the-market QB, Russell Wilson. But now Mahomes has set a bar $10 million over that number.
The Cowboys, until 2020, have enjoyed absolute bargain QB play from Prescott. In terms of durability, efficiency, consistency and overall production, it can be argued that the 2016 fourth-rounder should well exceed what the class' first-rounders Carson Wentz and Jared Goff got.
Prescott, 26, didn't need to shoot for simply clearing the high-end salary floor, with Mahomes resetting the market with a much higher ceiling. He should also be comfortable "betting on himself" for 2020.
Prescott has started every game for the Cowboys in his career, showing great physical and mental toughness. After a stellar rookie season, he's rebounded well from a sophomore slump. The Cowboys put more on him as a passer, opening up the offense last season, and he responded with highs of 4,903 passing yards and 30 passing TDs at 8.2 yards per attempt. He's remained a steady runner with good red zone sensibility.
The Cowboys saw Prescott's 2019 boom and, because of that, kept offensive coordinator Kellen Moore with new offensive-minded coach Mike McCarthy. Since last October, they've given both running back Ezekiel Elliot and wide receiver Amari Cooper big new deals. They further facilitated Prescott's passing with a draft splurge on first-round wideout CeeDee Lamb.
Dallas made moves with Prescott in mind and not just for one season. The Cowboys don't really want Prescott to go anywhere and Jerry Jones has a history of eventually giving in to his superstar players and giving them exactly what they want.
Prescott should have great confidence that he will stay healthy and continue to play at an elite level with more of Moore with McCarthy's influence. He can also work to add what went missing from his resume in 2019 — leading the Cowboys to a third NFC playoff berth in five years.
Because of their raised offensive explosion, revamped defense and now Super Bowl-experienced coaching, the Cowboys are better positioned to contend for the conference crown. Prescott can seize that opportunity, knowing that leading Dallas to the long-lost Super Bowl can get him a lot closer to Mahomes' deal than Wilson's.
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The Cowboys, should they franchise-tag Prescott again in 2021, will see his guaranteed number increase by 20 percent to $37.7 million. By not taking the lesser annual deal, Prescott has essentially set up a floor higher than what would have been his current ceiling.
With the salary cap potentially lowered from or flattened at $198.2 million, there will be extra pressure on the Cowboys to lock up Prescott, because that one-season hit will be less manageable next season. Should Prescott stay healthy and very productive as expected, he can better command what he wants, either from Dallas or another willing team on the open market.
Once the Cowboys tagged Prescott, there wasn't much reason for him to settle. Once Mahomes got his deal, that became a no-brainer.
Prescott played this right and will end up winning. The Cowboys are the ones that have more likely made a costly mistake.
