How the Cowboys vs. Rams outcome could change NFC playoff picture, futures odds

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How the Cowboys vs. Rams outcome could change NFC playoff picture, futures odds image

The Rams and Cowboys are both fighting for their playoff lives. The Rams are two games behind Seattle and one game behind Minnesota for the two wild-card spots in the NFC, while the Cowboys are tied with Philadelphia atop the NFC East at 6-7. A loss for either team would severely damage their postseason hopes, but a defeat could be especially deadly for the Rams. Seattle can lock up a playoff berth with a win over lowly Carolina on Sunday, and Minnesota could move two games ahead of LA with a Rams loss and a Vikings win over the Chargers. That would give the Rams no margin for error the rest of the way, and they are well aware of that headed into Week 15.

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Cowboys playoff odds

Jason Garrett has the hottest seat in the NFL right now. The embattled Cowboys head coach was -500 to be fired at the end of the season just a few weeks ago, and those odds have risen as Jerry Jones has continued to publicly express his frustration with the team. Dallas has lost three straight games, and the Cowboys have yet to beat a team with a winning record this season. The combined record of the opponents they have beaten is 19-58-1, so they are a slight underdog, per the NFL betting odds, to the Rams at home.

Unlike the Rams, the Cowboys do have some leeway, though. If Dallas loses to Los Angeles on Sunday, the Cowboys could still win the NFC East and host a playoff game by winning their last two games. The Cowboys have already defeated the Eagles once this season, so a win over Philly next week would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker, and the Cowboys will be a heavy favorite at home against a bad Washington team in their season finale.

Although the Cowboys could conceivably win the division at 7-9, they won’t be too big of a longshot to win the Super Bowl, per the NFL futures odds. The reason for that is twofold. First, Dallas is the most public team in the NFL other than New England. Lines are frequently shaded by a point or two since sportsbooks receive so much Dallas action.

The other reason is that Dallas has one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper are the new triplets, and Michael Gallup has emerged as a big-play receiver, too. Despite being 6-7, the Cowboys have the sixth best point differential in the league at +67, and that has advanced metrics bullish on the ‘Boys.

Rams playoff odds

The Rams will more than likely be unable to catch Seattle for the first wild-card spot, meaning they must catch Minnesota for the second wild-card spot. The good news for Los Angeles in this endeavor is that the Rams will win the tiebreaker with the Vikings if they win out and the Vikes drop a game. Minnesota is likely to drop at least one game with the Chargers, Packers and Bears remaining on the schedule, and the Vikings are only slight favorites on the NFL betting line this week. They will likely be a short underdog at home against Green Bay in Week 16 and a moderate favorite in Minneapolis against Chicago in the season finale, making it hard for the Norsemen to run the table.

It’s going to be difficult for the Rams to win out, too. LA has a virtual coinflip this week against Dallas, and the Rams will certainly be an underdog next week on the road against the 49ers. San Francisco can likely wrap up home field advantage in the postseason with a win over its division rivals, so the Rams won’t have the luxury of playing a disinterested team. They do have the benefit of playing 3-9-1 Arizona in the season finale though, and the Rams will be double digit favorites in that one if they have something on the line.

Los Angeles has a more difficult path to the playoffs, so its Super Bowl betting odds are +5000 compared to +4000 for Dallas. The Rams have more value, though, as winning out means they would be on a five-game winning streak entering the playoffs (assuming Minnesota loses a game), and bettors would be eager to back the defending NFC champions if the line was too high given the hype around this franchise the last two seasons.

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