When the Cowboys travel to face the Chargers to close Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season on "Monday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN), they will try to avoid falling to .500. The Chargers are already there at 2-2 following a Week 5 bye, while Dallas has lost out West twice this year in Arizona and San Francisco.
Justin Herbert is headed to a monster season in the new Chargers offense. He recently lost wide receiver Mike Williams (knee), but he should get running back Austin Ekeler (ankle) back to full strength to help Keenan Allen and his bevy of weapons. Defensively, watch for rejuvenated Khalil Mack to keep wreaking havoc.
The Cowboys have their line healthy along with Dak Prescott and Tony Pollard, but the numbers haven't been there offensively, as they've been too reliant on defense and special teams to win games early.
Will Dallas rebound to get back on track against an AFC foe, or will the Chargers stay hot after a slow start? Here's a betting breakdown, a look at the odds, and picks and predictions for the game:
Cowboys vs. Chargers odds, spread, over/under
(All odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Spread: Cowboys -2.5 (-110) | Chargers +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under: OVER 50.5 (-110) | UNDER 50.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Cowboys -135| Chargers +115
The Cowboys have been mild sub-field-goal favorites in this road matchup. Dallas didn't fare well in prime time going to Northern California on Sunday night in Week 5, getting rolled in San Francisco. Now, they will try to fare better in Southern California, where they go to training camp every year and have a strong fan base. The Chargers, however, have the edge of coming off a bye.
Should you bet the Cowboys against the spread?
The Cowboys are 6-7 ATS in their past 13 road games. They did win at Los Angeles last year and covered against the Rams. They have started 1-2 ATS on the road this year but are 0-2 since routing the Giants in Week 1. The Chargers have evened up quickly after starting 0-2, covering and winning over the Vikings and Raiders the past two games. They came through in a mild underdog situation in Minnesota.
The Cowboys started as the much better team on paper, but offensive changes, defensive injuries, and bad coaching have dropped them, while the Chargers have had a little more luck on their side than usual, now with Austin Ekeler (ankle) expected back. Don't forget about the Kellen Moore revenge-game factor. Not only will Moore know how to attack Dan Quinn's defense, but he will also know Dak Prescott's tendencies, giving coach Brandon Staley plenty of ammo to keep Dak frustrated.
Our Pick: Chargers -2.5 (-110)
Should you bet the Chargers on the money line?
The Chargers do have a pretty good kicker in Cameron Dicker and may have turned the corner a bit with their late-game mojo in Minnesota. Herbert is playing so much better than Prescott, helped by Moore vs. being hurt by no Moore. Staley is actually doing better with his staff than McCarthy at this point. QB and coaching? Take L.A.
Our Pick: Chargers +2.5 (+115)
Should you bet the Cowboys-Chargers OVER?
This seems like too high of a number despite some of the offensive firepower on the field. The Cowboys' offense is sputtering, and there's not enough reason to think this will be a "get-well" game with limited wide receiver pop and the running game not going off as expected with Tony Pollard. Fade this number. The Chargers do their part with Herbert despite some red-zone bogdowns, and the Cowboys can't generate enough offense to keep up.
Our Pick: UNDER 50.5 (-110)
Final score prediction: Chargers 27, Cowboys 17
Best Cowboys-Chargers prop bet on SuperDraft
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Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers — OVER 277.5 passing yards
The Cowboys have the No. 2 pass defense in the NFL, allowing on average fewer than 167 passing yards per game, but this might be one of the most misleading stats early in the season. They have faced Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and Josh Dobbs in four of the games. Brock Purdy hit 252 yards and four TDs as the first "good" QB they faced.
MORE: Full SuperDraft parlay picks for Cowboys-Chargers
Herbert is that "good" and then some. The Chargers will light it up after a bye in a revenge game for offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who will rip into a group with a shaky Trevon Diggs-less secondary and a limited pass rush with Micah Parsons playing hurt. Herbert will find guys streaking everywhere with high volume, and the Chargers won't waste time forcing the run on Dallas' front.
