The Chiefs (4-0) are only one of two undefeated AFC teams left, joining the Patriots. The Colts (2-2) have been hard to figure out this season, with losses to the Chargers and Raiders sandwiching wins over the Titans and Falcons.
Will the Colts go 0-3 against the AFC West to begin the season or get on the board in the division to help their playoff chances in an all-knotted-up AFC South? Patrick Mahomes vs. Andrew Luck was supposed to be the marquee QB matchup, but Mahomes and Jacoby Brissett — the only passer in the NFL with multiple TD passes in every game so far — can be just as compelling.
Here's everything to know about betting on Colts vs. Chiefs, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for "Sunday Night Football" (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) in Week 5.
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds at Sportsbook Review
Betting odds for ‘Sunday Night Football'
- Spread: Chiefs by 11
- Point total: 56
- Moneyline: Colts -107, Chiefs -103
Since the Chiefs rallied to beat the Lions on the road and the Raiders upset the Colts at home, the line has been at double digits. The Colts come in with a lot of injury concerns and the Chiefs get the extra prime-time home bump.
Colts vs. Chiefs all-time series
The Colts lead here 16-10 but the Chiefs have won the last two meetings by scores of 30-14 and 31-13, with the latter coming in last season's divisional playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium. Before then, also with Luck, Indianapolis won three consecutive games, including in the wild-card round after the 2013 season.
Three trends to know
— 53 percent of bettors like the Colts to make the game closer than 11 points. 55 percent like the game to go over the high total.
— The Chiefs covered in their first three games and the total has gone over in three of their four games.
— The Colts are both 2-2 straight up and 2-2 against the spread this season, splitting both their home and away games.
Three things to watch
Mahomes to Kelce
With the Colts gutted by injuries in the back middle of their defense, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is set up for a big night. Linebacker Darius Leonard and starting safeties Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers all will be not playing. Look for Mahomes to find his favorite intermediate target open often.
Brissett to Hilton
Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (quad-questionable) is expected to return to action from an injury that caused him to miss Week 4 against the Raiders. In the playoffs, Hilton was targeted 11 times against the Chiefs, catching 4 passes for 60 yards and TD. In general, Kansas City has held him in check with Luck, save for 13-catch, 224-yard, 2-TD game in the previous playoff meeting. The deep ball from Brissett to Hilton also has been good this year and Indy needs to get that connection rolling to pull the upset.
Reid vs. Reich
Chiefs coach Andy Reid was Doug Pederson's mentor, while Colts coach Frank Reich has channeled his success under Pederson with the Eagles. They are both brilliant offensive minds. Reid will try to speed up the game with Mahomes, while Reich is smart to slow play it with a ball-control approach given the state of his defense.
Stat that matters
Mahomes is 8-1 as a starter at home with a 67.4 completion percentage, 8.65 yards per attempt rate and a 109.2 passer rating. He's only 2-4 in night games, but has a 109.5 rating and 8.37 yards per attempt. There's no expected weakness with Mahomes in this one with good matchups to exploit in the secondary.
Colts vs. Chiefs prediction
The Cheifs are strong favorites, but that number is a little too big given the Colts will be very competitive and have limited issues moving the ball here by spreading it around quickly, running well and taking a few deep shots that work. Mahomes wins comfortably after Brissett keeps a close duel until the fourth quarter.
Chiefs 34, Colts 24
