The Colts were the hottest AFC team going into the playoffs. They got even hotter Saturday in their 21-7, wild-card playoff win in Houston. Indianapolis will be a mild road underdog again when it goes for its 11th victory in 12 games at top-seeded Kansas City next Saturday in the divisional round.
The bad news for the Colts is they won't get away with scoring only 21 points next week. The good news is they can hang with the Chiefs on the scoreboard.
MORE: SN's NFL playoff predictions
The Colts did a great job defensively, bending but not breaking, to open the playoffs. But Deshaun Watson the Texans also failed to execute pass plays that were available. That won't happen to Patrick Mahomes behind a better line and with better weapons. The Chiefs scored more than 25 points in every game during the regular season and averaged a league-best 35.3 points.
So Andrew Luck and the Colts will need to win with offense. After averaging 27.1 points per game in the regular season, and facing a Kansas City scoring defense that gave up 26.3, Indianapolis will need to find a way to win a shootout.
Here are three reasons why they have a chance to do it.
1. Colts' pass protection vs. Chiefs' pass rush
Something needs to give here. The Colts allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL this season (18), and they allowed zero in the wild-card game. The Chiefs were the league co-leaders in sacks produced (53).
Kansas City's base 3-4 defense is similar to that of Houston; Indianapolis trades the challenge of slowing down J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney for trying to keep Chris Jones and Dee Ford (a combined 28.5 sacks) away from Luck. Colts left tackle Anthony Castonzo and guards Quenton Nelson and Mark Glowinski are coming off dominant performances against the Texans. Luck will continue to get the ball out quickly and pick the right spots for downfield shots against a Kansas City secondary that's shakier overall than the unit he saw in Houston.
Indianapolis' ball-control makeup is more about trying to run as many plays as possible rather than slowing the game down. The Colts will remain aggressive, with coach Frank Reich calling for Luck to push the ball deep and finish quick drives with touchdowns.
The Colts averaged 67 plays, good for third in the NFL this season. That's exactly how many plays they ran against the Texans.
2. Colts' third-down offense vs. Chiefs' third-down defense
This is the Colts' biggest advantage in their quest to keep Mahomes off the field. They were a notch ahead of the Chiefs in the regular season in converting third downs at a league-best 48.6 percent, and they were a perfect 6-for-6 in the first half (ended up at 63 percent) against the Texans.
The Chiefs this season ranked No. 25 in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert at a rate of 41.5 percent. Luck has been unfazed no matter the distance on third downs; only Mahomes and the Buccaneers' Jameis Winston delivered more first downs while throwing on third down in 2018.
There will be multiple matchups for Luck to exploit with his receivers and tight ends. The Colts also should be well positioned to consistently face third-and-medium or less.
3. Colts' running backs vs. Chiefs' overall defense
Colts RB Marlon Mack is coming off a monster game, rushing 24 times for 148 yards in Houston. That followed a 25-carry, 119-yard effort against the Titans in the de facto playoff game in Week 17, which raised his final season average to 4.7 yards per carry. The Chiefs gave up 5.0 yards per carry in 2018, second-worst in the NFL, in front of the Rams.
But Mack is not the only Colts back who can cause the Chiefs problems. Jordan Wilkins got only two touches for nine yards against the Texans, and surprisingly, fellow rookie Nyheim Hines wasn't used at all. The Chiefs have struggled to slow down backs in the passing game, beyond giving up their share of check-downs while playing with big leads in several games.
The Chiefs will need to worry about being beaten deep by T.Y. Hilton, and that should help open things up for Luck in the short passing game. The Colts can make third downs manageable and wear down the Chiefs' pass rush with Mack and their other backs.
MORE: Full 2019 NFL playoff schedule
While the Colts' defense will have its hands full against Mahomes, Luck should build on his playoff success. Both offenses are excellent in the red zone, but the Chiefs' defense has given up much more (72.4 percent) inside the 20 than the Colts' unit has allowed (53.5 percent). That will be the battle to watch, and the most important one for the Colts.
When Luck last faced the Chiefs in the playoffs five years ago, he led an epic comeback to turn a 38-10 deficit to a 45-44 victory in Indianapolis. The Chiefs know it won't be easy to shake that nightmare to keep their dream season rolling into the AFC championship game.
