Andrew Luck is the highest-paid quarterback and player in the NFL. But he is not the league's best QB if we're judging by the number of Super Bowl appearances and championships he has won — zero and zero.
Fair or not, that's ultimately how quarterbacks are judged.
Is Luck eventually going to take his place alongside the likes of Tom Brady and Joe Montana as super talented and super successful on the field? Or is he destined to be another Dan Fouts or Warren Moon, a Hall of Fame quarterback who never made it to a Super Bowl?
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Luck turns 28 in September. By Brady’s 28th birthday, he already had won three Super Bowls on his way to five titles, plus two more appearances in the big game. Montana had two Super Bowl victories at that juncture on his way to four overall. Another four-time champ, Terry Bradshaw, won two Super Bowls by age 27.
John Elway, another all-time great who Luck is often compared to because of their Stanford roots and similar skills, won his two Super Bowls in his late 30s, but he had appeared in his first two by age 27.
Peyton Manning, the Colts legend who was jettisoned when Luck was drafted, won his first Super Bowl at 29 and appeared in three more title games in his 30s, including his Super Bowl 50 victory with Denver. Brett Favre in Green Bay had been to two Super Bowls and was victorious in one by age 28.
As was the case for Fouts with the Chargers and Moon with the Oilers, both of whom made the playoffs multiple times, a key question is whether the Colts have surrounded their sixth-year signal caller with enough talent to get to the promised land.
Another key question: Will Luck be healthy enough after January surgery on his throwing shoulder to start the season-opener on the road against the Rams?
Luck's NFL career got off to a rousing start when he stepped into Manning's vacated starting spot and led the Colts to the playoffs in his first three seasons, including two AFC South titles. He had three playoff wins along with three Pro Bowl selections from 2012-14. In his career playoff highlight, he threw for 443 yards and four touchdowns in leading the second biggest comeback in NFL playoff history (28 points) as Indianapolis beat Kansas City, 45-44, in the 2013 AFC wild-card round.
In 2014, Luck and the Colts made it to the AFC title game before they were eliminated for the second straight year by the Patriots in a 45-7 drubbing. Luck's stats that night were equally dismal — 12 of 33 for 126 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions.
His 2015 season was injury-plagued with a shoulder problem early and a lacerated kidney and abdominal tear later, limiting him to seven games. After Luck’s down year with a career-low 74.9 QB rating, the Colts showed they still had faith in him as an elite quarterback with a mammoth $24.6 million-per-year extension ($87 million guaranteed).
Then, last season, he battled through shoulder issues and had a strong season (31 touchdown passes and a 96.4 rating), but the Colts’ offensive line allowed him to be sacked 41 times, and the defense couldn't hold up in an 8-8 season.
Luck's lingering shoulder pain resulted in the January surgery that has him sidelined during OTAs. He is expected back in August, and the good news for Luck is that, for the first time in his career, the Colts will return the same five starting offensive linemen.
It's readily apparent that the Colts did not provide Luck with enough supporting talent on offense while the defense also was lacking the past two seasons. Former general manager Ryan Grigson knew he had to get Luck better protection, and he drafted four offensive linemen in 2016, three of whom are starters, including No. 1 pick Ryan Kelly, No. 3 Le'Raven Clark and No. 5 Joe Haeg. Along with former first-rounder Anthony Castonzo and second-rounder Jack Mewhort, the Colts’ O-line should be solid if the unit can avoid injury.
The Colts' struggles and Luck's injuries cost Grigson his job, and new GM Chris Ballard has hit the defense hard, with linebacker Jabaal Sheard being the key free-agent signing (among several defensive additions) and six of eight draft picks being defenders, including the top three picks led by first-round safety Malik Hooker.
Ballard also added a couple more offensive skill players to the mix. A big possession receiver in Kamar Aiken came from Baltimore in free agency. Aiken, who had had 75 catches in 2015, should combine well with the lightning-quick T.Y. Hilton. Fourth-round running back Marlon Mack will bring a speed element to complement the ageless Frank Gore and Robert Turbin in the backfield.
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This influx of talent over the past two years has Colts fans optimistic that a hopefully healthy Luck can live up to his status as the highest-paid quarterback; that he can lead the Colts to the division title in the winnable AFC South and then on to Super Bowl contender status.
The division is on the rise, but Luck remains its best quarterback. Although he could be challenged by Marcus Mariota in Tennessee and, eventually, Deshaun Watson in Houston. Blake Bortles in Jacksonville … probably not so much.
The pressure is on Luck to ascend to the throne as king of NFL quarterbacks. It will require Super Bowl victories to do that.
So Luck has a lot of work to do to match the achievements of the quarterbacks considered the best of all time. He has the talent and work ethic to get there, but he needs to stay healthy and get the excellent supporting cast needed … and then be at his best to elevate his team in the biggest games.
Jeff Diamond is the former president of the Titans and the former vice president/general manager of the Vikings. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year in 1998. Diamond is currently a business and sports consultant who also does broadcast and online media work. He is the former chairman and CEO of The Ingram Group. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffdiamondNFL.
