The Kansas City Chiefs are hoping to break a 50-year Super Bowl drought on Sunday when they host the Tennessee Titans.
Kansas City took part in Super Bowl I and knocked off the Minnesota Vikings for the franchise’s only Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl 4, but we haven’t seen the Chiefs on football’s grandest stage since Len Dawson was the quarterback. They are favored to make it to Super Bowl 54 in Miami by the NFL betting odds, but the Tennessee Titans have already gone into Arrowhead Stadium and knocked off the Chiefs once this season. Here are some of the player props available to bet on for the AFC championship game.
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Patrick Mahomes over/under 310.5 Passing Yards
Mahomes was sensational in leading the Chiefs back from a 24-0 deficit last week against Houston. He threw four touchdown passes in the last 10 minutes of the first half to put Kansas City on top going into halftime, and he ended the afternoon with 321 yards and five touchdowns through the air.
Although the Chiefs lost to the Titans back in November, Mahomes had a superb game. He completed 36 of 50 passes for 446 yards and three touchdowns in the defeat, connecting often with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Tennessee’s secondary allowed Lamar Jackson to throw for 365 yards last week, so this unit could easily give up 300 yards once again despite having one of the best safeties in the league in Kevin Byard.
The best quarterback in the NFL today is likely to go over his total given that Tennessee has a front seven capable of stopping the run. Mahomes had no trouble moving the ball against the best secondary in the AFC this season (New England), and Andy Reid has no issue putting the game in the hands of the best quarterback he has ever coached.
Ryan Tannehill over/under 225.5 passing yards
Tannehill has been effective in Tennessee’s two playoff victories, but he hasn’t been asked to do much. Quarterbacks throwing for over 4,000 yards in a season is nothing in the modern era, yet the Titans have turned back the clock and are only throwing the ball to keep defenses honest and prevent safeties from rolling into the box.
The former Miami Dolphin has not thrown for more than 100 yards in either playoff game. Tannehill has completed 15 of 29 passes for 160 yards in the postseason, and four of the Titans’ top five receivers are players that don’t play wide receiver. If everything goes according to plan for Tennessee, Tannehill will end up short of this number once again, but if they fall behind, the game plan will eventually go out the window.
Derrick Henry over/under 112.5 rushing yards
This is a monster number, but Henry is having a monster year. The NFL’s leading rusher is in the middle of the greatest eight-game stretch for any running back in league history, averaging 159.1 YPG in his last eight games. Henry has shown over the course of his career that he can handle a big workload, and Mike Vrabel would love to see his workhorse carry the ball 30 times or more.
Kansas City has one of the worst run defenses in the league. The Chiefs are allowing 4.9 YPC, and they might not have defensive tackle Chris Jones available on Sunday. Jones is this defense’s linchpin for stopping the run, so Henry is primed for another huge day if he doesn’t play or is much less than 100 percent.
Damien Williams over/under 57.5 rushing yards
Williams has emerged as Kansas City’s No. 1 running back, but this team doesn’t run the ball much with a superstar like Mahomes under center. He had an 84-yard run to finish with more than 100 yards in the Chiefs’ regular season finale, but Williams has carried the ball 62 times for 234 yards in his last five games if you take out that run. That makes the under a tasty bet, especially since Tennessee has two very good defensive linemen in Jurrell Casey and Jeffery Simmons.
Travis Kelce over/under 79.5 receiving yards
The best receiving tight end in the league has the highest total of any pass catcher playing in the AFC Championship Game. Kelce posted big numbers against Houston last week, and Tennessee has had some trouble stopping tight ends throughout the season.