The Titans, as the No. 6 seed in the 2020 AFC playoffs, have already knocked off the No. 3 Patriots and No. 1 Ravens on the road to get to Sunday's AFC champonship game (3:05 p.m. ET, CBS). Will they be able to pull off one more big upset at the No. 2 Chiefs?
Tennessee has a lot of confidence as its running game powered by NFL rushing champion Derrick Henry and its defense have dominated to get the team on the brink of Super Bowl 54, 20 seasons after the franchise reached Super Bowl 34. But Kansas City, hosting the AFC title game for a second consecutive year, is also red-hot with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, having dropped 51 points in a 20-point big comeback victory over the Texans at home last week.
Here's everything to know about betting on Chiefs vs. Titans in the NFL playoffs, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for the AFC championship game.
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds & betting trends at Sports Insider
Chiefs vs. Titans odds for AFC championship game
- Spread: Chiefs by 7.5
- Point total: 52.5
- Odds: Titans -120, Chiefs +100
The Chiefs have been hovering around touchdown favorites all week, as they're playing a much lower seed than expected and staying in Arrowhead Stadium. The point total has been higher, but is lowering close to kickoff.
Chiefs vs. Titans all-time series
The Chiefs lead the all time series 29-24, dating back to the time when the Titans were the Houston and Tennessee Oilers. Andy Reid's only Chiefs win over the Titans came in his first year with the team in October 2013. The Titans have won four straight, including 22-21 in Kansas City in the '18 wild-card playoffs and 35-23 in Nashville in the '19 regular season.
Three trends to know
— The Titans are 10-7-1 against the spread this season. The Chiefs are 12-5. 53 percent of spread bettors like the Chiefs while 66 percent of moneyline bettors like the Titans.
— The Titans have seen the total go over in 10 of 18 games. The Chiefs' games have gone over only 9 times. 56 percent of bettors like this game to go under.
— The Titans have won and covered in 7 of their past 9 games. The Chiefs have won and covered in 7 consecutive games, with their last loss and non-cover happening in the loss to the Titans on Nov. 10.
MORE: Is Chiefs coach Andy Reid cursed against the Tennessee Titans?
Three things to watch
Andy Reid vs. Mike Vrabel
Reid hasn't fared well against several previous Titans coaches, including Jeff Fisher, Ken Whisenhunt and Mike Mularkey, going 1-8 in his career against them. Vrabel looks like the best of the bunch, as a protege of another Reid nemesis, Bill Belcihick. Reid also has seen his teams struggle in championship game at 1-5 as he's gotten to only one Super Bowl with the Eagles. Reid can't be coaching tight here as Vrabel and his staff are crushing it.
Henry vs. the Chiefs' run defense
The Chiefs have been shaky in their front seven trying to stop the run all season, ranking No. 26 in the NFL during the regular season. They gave up 188 yards and 2 TDs on 23 carries to Henry in the first meeting. In his past three games after being rested for a hamstring injury in Week 16, Henry has rushed for 211, 182 and 195 yards. Although Kansas City might get a boost from the potential return of its best defensive lineman, Chris Jones (calf-questionable), Henry will remain a handful. The best way to stop him is jump out to a lead and make quarterback Ryan Tannehill throw often.
Travis Kelce vs. the Titans' tight end defense
The Titans were not effective in covering the tight end for most of the season despite having a ballhawk such as Kevin Byard at safety. Kelce, coming off a 10-catch, 134-yard, 3-TD game against the Texans, had 7 catches for 75 yards and a TD in the first meeting. Mahomes should see Kelce open for chunk gains again.
Stat that matters
The Titans couldn't cover Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill in the first game, either. He had 11 catches for 157 yards as part of Mahomes' 446-yard day. The Chiefs will try to get Hill Isolated outside on Adoree' Jackson in three-receiver sets that push Logan Ryan into the slot. Jackson has given up a 70.6 catch rate and a 116.2 passer rating when teams throw in his direction downfield.
Titans vs. Chiefs prediction
The Titans have take advantage of the Patriots' and Ravens' offensive limitations the past two games. The Patriots couldn't get any big plays outside in the passing game; the Ravens saw their short-to-intermediate inside passing game taken away. The Chiefs can hurt the Titans both inside and outside with Mahomes, Kelce, Hill and several others. The Titans also are facing a good secondary who can keep them from jumping out to a lead with big plays there. Look for Kansas City to play from ahead by aggressively attacking coverage weaknesses early to ensure Tennessee can't quite catch up with more needed from Tannehill than Henry.
Chiefs 34, Titans 27
