When the No. 4 seed Texans travel to play the No. 2 seed Chiefs in Sunday's NFL divisional playoff game in Kansas City (3:05 p.m. ET, CBS), a chance to host next Sunday's AFC championship game against the No. 6 Titans will be on the line.
The Texans beat the Bills in overtime to open wild-card play last week. The Chiefs enjoyed the bye week after jumping the Patriots, who have since been eliminated in Week 17. Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes make it another marquee matchup of dynamic young quarterbacks.
Here's everything to know about betting on Chiefs vs. Texans in the NFL playoffs, including updated odds, trends and our expert's prediction for the AFC divisional game.
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds & betting trends at Sports Insider
Chiefs vs. Texans odds for NFL playoffs
- Spread: Chiefs by 10
- Point total: 51
- Odds: Texans -122, Chiefs +102
The Chiefs have seen this line slowly climb toward double digits after opening as a touchdown-plus favorite. There's confidence in them after a dominant stretch to end the season, while the Texans had a rougher December.
Chiefs vs. Texans all-time series
The Chiefs lead the series 6-5. The Texans won the regular-season meeting, 31-24 at Kansas City on Oct. 14. Before that game, they had lost four of five games to the Chiefs, including in Houston in the playoffs four years ago in 2016, 30-0.
Three trends to know
— The Texans are only 8-9 against the spread this season. The Chiefs are 11-5 against the spread. 52 percent of bettors like the Chiefs to cover the big number.
— The Texans saw only 7 of 17 games go over. The Chiefs saw only 8 of 16 games go over. 55 percent of bettors like the game to have more than 51 points.
— The Texans have covered only 4 times in the past 11 games. The Chiefs have won and covered in six consecutive games.
Three things to watch
Fuller's return
Watson gets a much-needed extra downfield weapon back in wide receiver Will Fuller, who missed the Bills game with a groin injury. Fuller caught 5 passes for 44 yards on 9 targets in the first meeting. His presence gives a deep threat to which Kansas City's strong secondary must pay attention. Fuller should return to be busy behind DeAndre Hopkins and puts Kenny Stills in a more favorable complementary role.
Mathieu's revenge
Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu has been playing like his best Honey Badger self, making big plays all over the field as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. The former Texan has been a big addition who has helped his new team pull off a big defensive turnaround under Steve Spagnuolo. Mathieu will try to burn Watson in coverage at a few opportune times.
Tyreek the freak
Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek HIll had 5 catches for 80 yards and 2 TDs on 10 targets in the first meeting. The Texans could have given up a much bigger game to him. You can bet they will do everything they can to make someone else beat them. Tight end Travis Kelce, who will be playing through a knee injury, was contained to 4 catches for 58 yards on 6 targets when Houston won at Kansas City.
Stat that matters
During their six-game winning streak, the Chiefs have allowed only a total of 69 points, or an average of fewer than 12 points per game. They also scored 167 points in that stretch, or nearly 28 points per game. The defense has jelled, improving against the pass and holding up better against the run. The offense has shot back up with a fully healthy Mahomes with a big boost from Damien Williams looking late his late 2018 self out of the backfield again. They also have dominated with their play on both lines of scrimmage.
Chiefs vs. Texans prediction
The Texans needed to run the ball at a very high level and dominate the time-of-possession battle to upset the Chiefs by a touchdown in Kansas City in October. They had to play a long, tough game against the Bills last week while the Chiefs got a much-needed bye. With the Ravens no longer standing as an obstacle, the Chiefs should be extra fired up for the opportunity for redemption in a second straight AFC title game in Arrowhead Stadium against the team, the Titans, to whom they lost their most recent game. Mahomes will make sure the Chiefs don't look ahead and take care of business, picking apart the Texans' secondary again to outduel Watson, who will face a higher degree of difficulty.
Chiefs 27, Texans 14
