The Chiefs are back to being those Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Kansas City improved to 7-4 on Sunday after beating NFC East powerhouse Dallas 19-9 in the marquee late afternoon game of NFL Week 11.
After a yo-yo start to the season through their Week 7 loss to the Titans, the Chiefs have won four consecutive games to make it a perfect November before a Week 12 bye on Thanksgiving weekend.
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The two-time reigning AFC champions had been fading as favorites to reach a third consecutive Super Bowl. Now, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Chiefs have the second-best odds (+700) to win it all. They're behind only the team that beat them in Super Bowl 55, the reigning NFC champion Buccaneers (+500).
SN breaks down whether the Chiefs need to worry about more hiccups after their midseason turnaround, as well as where they stand in the AFC West and the race for the conference's No. 1 seed:
What is the Chiefs' current AFC playoff position in the NFL standings?
The Chiefs are first again in the AFC West. They've climbed out of last place past the Chargers (6-4), Raiders (5-5) and Broncos (5-5). As division leaders the past two weeks, the Chiefs are now the No. 4 seed in the AFC playoff picture.
They have the same record as the new AFC East leaders, the Patriots. But the Patriots are No. 3 because they have a superior record in conference games (5-1 to the Chiefs' 2-4).
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The Titans (8-3), who lost in Week 11 to the Texans, are one game ahead of the Patriots (whom they play in Week 12) and Chiefs. The Ravens (7-3), who beat the Bears without Lamar Jackson, remained a half-game ahead of New England and Kansas City.
How tough is the Chiefs' remaining schedule and what key games do they have left?
The Chiefs have played a tough schedule, and that won't change much in December and January before the playoffs. The combined winning percentage of the Chiefs' remaining opponents is .542, a slate that lags in degree of difficulty only behind the AFC North teams and the Raiders.
With their bye coming in Week 12, the Chiefs have just six games left. They return with back-to-back home division games against the Broncos and Raiders. They play at the Chargers on a short week in Week 15, but the tougher test will arguably be a home game against the Steelers in Week 16. Playing at the Bengals in Week 17 could be a bit of trap before finishing at Denver in Week 18.
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Although all of those opponents are .500 or better at the moment, the Raiders and Broncos are headed toward losing records. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are alive and well in the AFC playoff picture, however, and have versatile offenses and inspired defenses. The division-heavy finish is a good break given the Chiefs haven't fared well (1-3) in interdivision games.
What are the Chiefs' chances of winning the AFC West?
The Chiefs have four division games left. They are built to avenge their loss to the Chargers, beat the Raiders a second time and sweep the Broncos. Despite the apparent closeness in the standings, there has been enough regression to the mean by the other division hopefuls to the point it was just a matter of time before the Chiefs took control again.
That momentum will only snowball in the final two months. This is the time of the year the Chiefs play their best complementary football, with the running game and the defense lifting Mahomes and the passing game. Consider the West already won by Kansas City for a sixth consecutive time under Andy Reid.
What are the Chiefs' chances of earning the top seed in the AFC playoffs?
With the division looking to be well in hand, the Chiefs can finish no lower than their current No. 4 position.
No. 1 seemed out of reach not too long ago after they lost to three fellow contenders — the Ravens, Bills and Titans. But the look of the AFC playoff picture has changed. The Bills are no longer in first and the Titans no longer have Derrick Henry. The Ravens are battling through uncharacteristic woes on defense.
The Titans and the Patriots play each other in Week 12; the outcome will help the Chiefs either way. The Ravens have a brutal remaining schedule that includes the Packers, Rams, Bengals, Steelers (twice) and Browns (twice).
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The Chiefs should be favored in all of their remaining games. They have the capacity to win out and end the season on a 10-game winning streak. If they can't do that, it still feels as if they would have a high floor, finishing with five victories in six games. The bottom line is finishing at least a game ahead of the Titans, Ravens and whoever wins the AFC East between the Patriots and Bills.
Mahomes is on track and the team is finding new ways to win. A final record of 12-5 or 13-4 is a safe estimate.
The Titans, Ravens and Patriots are vulnerable from week to week, for different reasons. The Bills have proved to be that kind of team with a big-time letdown after beating the Chiefs.
Home-field advantage has been huge for Kansas City in its past two playoff runs. Like last postseason, finishing No. 1 will come with the added advantage of receiving the lone bye, rest and a free advance to the AFC divisional playoffs. Much to the rest of the AFC's chagrin, the Chiefs appear headed toward regular-season supremacy and a return to the driver's seat for the Super Bowl.
