When the Chiefs (4-1) travel to face the Bills (4-1) in Buffalo on Monday night (5 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network and Amazon Prime Video), both teams will be trying to shake off their first losses of the season from Week 5. The game was supposed to open Week 6 on Thursday night, but now serves as the penultimate game before "real" MNF.
The Chiefs had this situation in Week 4 when hosting the Patriots, while the Bills just experienced an unexpected Tuesday game. COVID-19 has thrown off both teams' schedules, but both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are throwing the ball at a high level.
Mahomes experienced a rare loss in his young career as an elite starter in Kansas City and will be looking to make amends in Buffalo. Allen had two costly interceptions in a blowout loss with a short week to try to forget about it.
Here's everything to know about betting on Chiefs vs. Bills, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for the Week 6 NFL game.
MORE: Why did Le'Veon Bell sign with the Chiefs?
Chiefs vs. Bills odds for Week 6
- Spread: Chiefs by 3
- Over/under: 57.5
- Point spread odds: Chiefs -110, Bills -110
The Chiefs' line has fluctuated from 5 points because of the Bills playing on Tuesday night, two days after the Chiefs lost their first game of the season to the Raiders. The Chiefs are down to field-goal favorites on the road as both teams are expected to rebound well and score at a high level.
Chiefs vs. Bills all-time series
The Bills hold a 26-21-1 advantage. The teams haven't met since 2017, when the Bills beat the Chiefs 16-10. Before that the Chiefs had won three in a row, 23-13 in 2013, 17-13 in 2014 and 30-22 in 2015. This is the first time they have played since Mahomes and Allen became the starting quarterbacks.
Three trends to know
— 63 percent of bettors like the Chiefs to cover the spread as road favorites after the Bills played and lost on the road last Tuesday and the Chiefs played and lost at home last Sunday.
— 55 percent of bettors like the game to go over the point total despite the high number because of the explosiveness of both offenses.
— The Chiefs have covered the spread in 12 of their past 14 games, and one of those two losses was against the Raiders in Week 5.
Three things to watch
The running games
The Chiefs wanted to rev up their backfield with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire struggling a little and made the trade for Le'Veon Bell, who can't be active for this game, as a result. The Bills also were attached to Bell, looking for more out of their backfield, where rookie Zack Moss will return to help Devin Singletary. Both teams are vulnerable against the run and the Bills need to find some balance to help keep Mahomes off the field. The Chiefs can also flip the script to make sure Allen has limited touches.
Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and then who?
The Chiefs will be without former Bill Sammy Watkins, ruled out for Week 6 with his hamstring injury. But there are plenty of wide receivers who can step up to be the third key target after the speedy Hill and tough-to-cover Kelce. Mecole Hardman has been more involved of late and will see a good share of targets. But look for Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson to also contribute more. Mahomes should have success working the middle of the field and the outside away from cornerback Tre'Davious White.
Stefon Diggs and then who?
Diggs has deliver as advertised as Allen's go-to guy all over the field. But here the Bills also need big plays from other sources. Cole Beasley can work the slot well, but this is more about veteran speedster John Brown and rookie Gabriel Davis taking advantage of Diggs' attention to stretch the field outside.
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Stat that matters
129. That's how many rushing yards Mahomes has in five games. Allen, surprisingly, has only 101 rushing yards. Mahomes has been using his legs better in great spots for the Chiefs, while Allen hasn't used a big part of his production from his first two seasons. Whichever QB can get the extra yards on the ground with maybe a key play in the red zone will likely lead the winning offense.
Chiefs vs. Bills prediction
Allen has the bigger arm than Mahomes, but that's the only edge he has a passer. The Bills' running game is too inconsistent and there will be too much on Allen to win a shootout while Mahomes exploits all the big holes in the Bills' pass defense. Even without Watkins, Mahomes has the right kind of weapons in Hill and Kelce to roll to a big rebound, while Allen has another letdown.
Chiefs 31, Bills 27
