Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season is upon us, and we have some solid matchups throughout the Sunday slate. One of our favorites is Chargers vs. Dolphins in Los Angeles (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS), with both teams hoping to take over their respective divisions this season now that they're healthy. Let's get ready for this AFC tilt from a betting standpoint and find the best moneyline, spread, over/under, and prop wagers.
The 2022 season was a rocky one for the Fins and the Bolts, with Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa suffering multiple concussions and L.A. once again constantly battling injuries. The Dolphins ultimately finished 9-8 (2nd in the AFC East), while the Chargers ended up 10-7 (2nd in the AFC West).
Both squads got bounced from the wild-card round, with Miami falling to Buffalo in a 34-31 shootout and L.A. suffering a similar fate with a 31-30 loss to the Jaguars. Both franchises are likely hungry for a quick bounce-back after those bitter endings to the 2022 season, with much more health on both sides of the ball almost nine months later.
The Chargers will finally be able to unveil the dynamic pass-rushing duo of Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack at full strength. The Dolphins, meanwhile, start the season with Tua Tagovailoa ready to duel Bolts QB Justin Herbert. Tua Time was paused in the 2022 postseason due to the 25-year-old's multiple concussions (Grade 1 in late Sep., Grade 3 in Dec).
We'll be looking forward to watching both of these teams at close to full strength, and we also can't wait to get some action in on BetMGM. So, let's dive right in — here are the odds, best bets, and top props for Chargers vs. Dolphins on Sunday afternoon.
All odds courtesy of BetMGM. Click HERE to sign up!
Chargers vs. Dolphins odds, spread, over/under
- Spread: Chargers -3 (-110) | Dolphins +3 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 51 (-110) | UNDER 51 (-110)
- Moneyline: Chargers -160 | Dolphins +135
Should you bet the Chargers against the spread?
In short, yes you should. We're happily taking the Chargers here, and not just because they're hosting the Fins on the other side of the country. In away games last season, Miami tied Baltimore for the 10th-most giveaways (1.5) and fourth-lowest completion percentage (58.8%).
Before you mention that Tua was out for a chunk of the season, I'll remind you that he threw three picks across his first two road games last year before getting hurt. He also looked abysmal when these teams met last December when the Chargers prevailed 23-17. In all, Tagovailoa went 10-of-28 for 145 yards and a TD. That's a completion percentage of 35.7 percent.
Tua can't keep up with Justin Herbert in Los Angeles, and his offensive line won't be able to protect him nearly as much as he needs them to succeed. PFF ranks Miami's offensive line 20th of 32 teams, while it has the Chargers' o-line sitting within the top 10. Better passer, better protection, and better defense? Yeah, sign us up.
Our Pick: Bet the Chargers -3 (-110)
Should you bet the Chargers' moneyline?
You could opt for the Bolts' moneyline, but it's a bit too much juice for our liking. A $50 wager would only net you $31.25 with a win, after all. So, the only way we would consider betting L.A.'s ML is in a small parlay with other solid bets like the Commanders over the Cardinals, the Seahawks over the Rams, or the Ravens over the Texans.
You could also apply an odds boost to cut out some of that juice. Many sportsbooks offer boosts around this time of year to entice NFL fans to place some wagers. Even a 25-percent odds boost reduces the vig on the Chargers from -160 to under -130, which gets you much closer to $100 on a $50 bet.
Our advice is to either stick with the Bolts on the -3 spread or buy a half-point and bet them at -2.5. You can get L.A. at -2.5 on BetMGM for just -130, which is a pretty acceptable price to pay for added insurance against an explosive team.
Our pick: Fade the Chargers' -160 unless you can get a promo boost. Instead, bet the Bolts' -2.5 (-130)
Should you bet the Chargers vs. Dolphins over or under?
It may sound predictable, but we're all in on the OVER this weekend. Both of these squads have high-powered offenses with elite pass-catching weapons. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are arguably one of the two best receiving tandems in the NFL. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, when healthy, can take over a game. Austin Ekeler has been the most dependable touchdown scorer in the world over the past two seasons.
And these QBs are lightning in a bottle, especially against strong squads in conference games. Tua started the 2022 campaign against New England and Baltimore — two good defenses — and put up 62 points on 739 passing yards and seven passing TDs. He also had a three-game stretch in the middle of the season in which he passed for three TDs and averaged 323 yards per game.
Herbert, meanwhile, has been solid as a rock for three years straight and has played all 17 games in two consecutive regular seasons. His TDs were down (25), but his completion rate (68.2%) reached a career best. If Allen and Williams stay healthy this season, Ekeler keeps doing his thing, rookie wideout Quentin Johnston pans out, and Gerald Everett seizes opportunities like this weekend against a floppy Fish front seven, the sky's the limit for Herbs.
Our Pick: Bet the OVER (51) at -110.
Best Chargers vs. Dolphins prop bet via SuperDraft
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins — UNDER 268.5 passing yards
That's a very steep over/under for Tua on the road in Week 1, especially with Bosa and Mack chasing him behind a suspect Dolphins o-line. Tagovailoa failed to hit 269 passing yards five times last season, and three of those games were on the road. One of those, of course, was the aforementioned Dolphins-Chargers game in L.A. last December. We know how poorly that game went — Tua completed just 10-of-28 passes for 145 yards and one TD — easily one of his two worst games of the season. It's hard to bet against someone with Tua's upside, we get it, but with a banged-up running back corps and an unreliable o-line, we're happy to take that leap. Bet the UNDER and enjoy a big Sunday evening W.
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