AccuScore ’s computer simulates games 10,000 times to predict their outcome. Throughout the football season, we’ll be stacking up these forecasts against Las Vegas money-lines. When AccuScore gives a team a better chance to win than the money-line odds imply, it’s a recommended play.
Here’s a pick for this week’s NFL card:
San Diego Chargers (8-6) at San Francisco 49ers (7-7)
The Chargers have just two weeks remaining to get back into the AFC playoff picture. The already-eliminated 49ers will look to play spoiler in a season that fans are wishing never happened.
San Diego is a +105 underdog on the money-line in Las Vegas, implying a 48.8 percent chance of winning.
AccuScore data picks a different winner than Vegas. As opposed to the 48.8 percent chance Vegas odds give San Diego, AccuScore simulations indicate about a 53 percent chance of winning. AccuScore would have listed the Chargers as slight -110 favorites. A Vegas underdog that’s an AccuScore favorite is always an appealing pick.
There's a 52.8 percent chance of the Chargers covering a +1 spread. It's a 4-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.
San Diego won 64 percent of the simulated games in which they commit fewer turnovers. They commit fewer turnovers in 35 percent of simulated games.
The Chargers’ probability of winning rests largely on the shoulders of QB Philip Rivers. He missed practice earlier this week but will be ready to go this weekend. Rivers averaged 297 passing yards per simulated game. If he has a performance with greater than 297 yards and at least a 2-to-1 TD to INT ratio – which there’s a 36 percent chance of – the Chargers’ winning probability goes from 53 to 71 percent.
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