The Panthers will soon have a tough decision to make with quarterback Cam Newton beyond the rest of the 2019 NFL season. The Bears likely will have an easy decision to make with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky ahead of 2020.
Although Chicago and Carolina could not help each other with their respective QB conundrums before this year's NFL trade deadline, the teams might need to explore an intriguing, mutually beneficial deal ahead of the 2020 league year, which begins in March.
Here is how it goes: The Panthers move on from Newton as their starter by trading him to the Bears. The deal in turn keeps Chicago from getting in too deep with Trubisky.
MORE: How Panthers the will approach their breakup with Cam Newton
How and why could this work, and how and when should it work? Here's breaking down the way a wild rumor can turn into reality.
Why would the Panthers trade Cam Newton?
Newton, 30, is signed through the 2020 season and set to make $18.6 million next year. When it became time to re-up from his rookie contract in 2015, the Panthers got an immediate return on their six-year, $118.47 million ($60 million guaranteed) investment, as Newton delivered an MVP season and carried Carolina to Super Bowl 50.
Since then, between injuries and ineffectiveness, he hasn't been the same kind of passer or runner, more mediocre than spectacular. With recent shoulder and foot ailments affecting his play and availability, it's hard to justify giving him another mega-deal.
As it stands, with backup Kyle Allen playing more than well enough to support Carolina's running game and defense, the team can trust Newton only if he is close to 100 percent.
Allen does not yet look like a long-term solution, but with a few more opportunities to turn in strong performances, he can creep into that conversation for Carolina. For now, the Panthers' plan to move on would be focusing on QB early in either the 2020 or 2021 draft, with the addition of a veteran bridge option if needed.
It comes down to the Panthers having complete faith that Newton can be an elite player again, because if not, a further investment in him would limit a partial rebuilding team in many other areas. Staying with Allen on the cheap or rolling with an upcoming rookie would allow the Panthers spend a lot more freely to build a championship team with other elements.
Why would the Bears trade Mitchell Trubisky?
This question is a lot easier to answer. Trubisky has shown little improvement since he entered the league as the No. 2 overall pick in 2017. Despite the Bears' efforts to attach him to an offensive-minded coach in Matt Nagy, with an emphasis on improving at the offensive skill positions, Trubisky still seems overwhelmed and unsettled as a passer while offering even less as a runner.
Seeing how the two first-round quarterbacks taken after Trubisky — the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes and the Texans' Deshaun Watson — play at near-elite level, there's no way the Bears will want to pay Trubisky in the same, lucrative way.
What is the Bears' salary-cap situation for 2020?
The biggest thing in Trubisky's favor with the Bears is his relatively low cap number ($9.237 million) for the final year of his rookie contract in 2020. With the league-wide cap expected to approach $200 million for every team, the Bears, with Trubisky signed, are expected to have around $13 million available.
Cutting him in the spring would make the team eat his entire cap number as dead money with no savings. Trading him would save the team roughly half of that cap number, with $4.8 million counting against the cap as a dead money hit.
What is the Panthers' salary-cap situation for 2020?
The Panthers would save a lot of cap space in 2020 by trading Newton. He carries a $21 million hit for 2020, and Carolina in dealing him would be responsible for only $2 million in dead money.
The Panthers are looking at being $50 million under the cap, but that's with several decently paid players, mostly on defense, going into unrestricted free agency.
Can the Bears afford Cam Newton in 2020 with a new contract?
They can. This would require the Bears making a few key veteran roster cuts and being creative with the contract structuring, but it is possible.
It's a matter of how comfortable they are still paying for the Trubisky pick, too, either on or off the roster.
What would the Bears need to trade to get Cam Newton from the Panthers?
Should the Bears reach a point of no return with Trubisky and the Panthers accept it is in their best interest to move on from Newton, then it comes down to the compensation. That's the biggest obstacle for the Bears.
They don't have a first-round or third-round pick in 2020 because of last year's Khalil Mack trade. They also don't have a fourth-round pick after another trade with the Patriots. They do, however, still have two second-round picks. Based on the performance of running back Jordan Howard, whom they traded to the Eagles, they could have two fifth-rounders, as well.
There's a precedent to follow here. The 49ers traded quarterback Alex Smith in 2013, eight years after he was drafted No. 1 overall. That happened because a midseason injury to Smith gave rise to Colin Kaepernick as a young fill-in QB who lifted the offense to new heights. The Niners got a second-rounder and a conditional pick from the Chiefs in return for Smith. He then got a nice four-year extension in 2014.
Newton may have a perceived higher value, such as a first-round pick. But in reality, having some sense that Newton is a reclamation project by the nature of the deal of happening in the first place, a second-rounder or two would be a fair trade. Consider that the 49ers gave up only a second-rounder to the Patriots for the high upside of Jimmy Garoppolo two years ago.
MORE: Where will Cam Newton play in 2020?
Why would Cam Newton be better than Mitchell Trubisky for the Bears?
The Panthers would trade Newton only if they feel like they can win with Allen or an alternative. But the burden here should lie more on the Bears, assuming they think Newton would be a major upgrade over Trubisky and put them in position to win a championship with their Mack-led defense.
Remember that Nagy was the QB coach in Kansas City when Smith arrived and later was his offensive coordinator, bringing out the best play of Smith's career. Newton has similar qualities with his athleticism and big arm that would work in the system. Smith was untapped as a deep-ball passer until he got to Nagy and Andy Reid.
Nagy has struggled to mesh his play-calling with Trubisky, as the third-year QB can't handle a high volume of passing. Newton would allow the Bears to be more grounded but still dangerous in the downfield passing game, as he and promising running back David Montgomery would work as well together in the scheme as Smith and Kareem Hunt once did.
The second half of this NFL season has much riding in the balance for the future of Newton and the Panthers, Trubisky and the Bears. Should the teams see things go south or get more frustrating with their quarterbacks, they should be thinking how they can have each other's backs in the offseason.
