Broncos vs. Chiefs Week 6 TNF odds, picks, predictions, expert betting tips for Thursday Night Football

Vinnie Iyer

Broncos vs. Chiefs Week 6 TNF odds, picks, predictions, expert betting tips for Thursday Night Football image

When the Chiefs (4-1) host the Broncos(1-4) to open Week 6 on "Thursday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video), they will look to avoid a trap game against a sputtering AFC West opponent. Denver has dropped 15 consecutive games to Kansas City, with Patrick Mahomes going 11-0 in his starts against the division rival.

The Chiefs don't always come through as heavy favorites, but the Broncos are getting killed most weeks minus their lone victory over the Bears. The Chiefs' only loss came in Week 1 to the Lions at home, also on a Thursday night.

The Chiefs have a couple of injury concerns, but tight end Travis Kelce (ankle) is expected to lay through his sprain, and edge rusher George Karlaftis (hamstring) also should go.

The Broncos have some defensive injuries, notably to safety Justin Simmons (hip), who should play. Offensively, running back Javonte Williams (hip) will return after missing Week 5, and tight end Greg Dulcich (hamstring) might be available for the first time since Week 1.

With all that in mind, here's a betting preview, breakdown, and prediction for the latest, potentially lopsided edition of TNF:

Broncos vs. Chiefs odds, spread, over/under

(All odds courtesy of BetMGM)

Spread: Broncos+10.5 (-110) | Chiefs-10.5 (-110)
Over/Under: OVER 47.5 (-110) | UNDER 47.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Broncos +425 | Chiefs -600

The Chiefs have been hovering around 11 points all week after they won at Minnesota and Denver lost again at home to the Jets. The total was a little higher earlier, but perhaps some concern over Kelce's health lowered it a bit.

MORE THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL:
DK lineup | FD lineup | Best props | Start-sit | Kelce update

Should you bet the Chiefs against the spread?

The Chiefs have gotten some interesting covers, including last week when a called-back pass interference penalty bailed them out of seeing a tighter (or even tied) game against the Vikings. After losing to the Lions, they've covered in three of the past four games. The Broncos haven't passed their number all season, with four ATS losses and a push.

Kansas City will make sure it doesn't look past Denver on a short week and the domination in the Mahomes era continues. Nothing has to give here for an offense that can do anything and a defense that can't stop anything.

Our Pick: Chiefs -10.5 (-110)

Should you bet the Broncos-Chiefs OVER?

The Chiefs might take care of this number by themselves, but really, the only thing stopping them is settling for too many field goals over red-zone TDs. The Broncos give up big runs and big passes, and Mahomes hasn't had a monster game yet. The Broncos can get enough garbage from Russell Wilson to put it OVER the total.

Our Pick: OVER 47.5 (-110)

Final score prediction: Chiefs 38, Broncos 14

Best Broncos-Chiefs prop bet on SuperDraft

Win BIG with SuperDraft! Join now and get a free deposit match of $20!

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs — OVER 74.5 rushing yards

The Broncos are by far the worst run defense in the NFL this season, and one of the worst all time. They're giving up more than 187 yards per game on average, appropriate because they've been murdered on the ground. They give it up to power rushers; they give it up to speed backs; and they give up long runs. 

MORE: Full SuperDraft parlay picks for Broncos-Chiefs

Pacheco can do all of that, and Andy Reid will be well aware his team can dominate with balance. Pacheco, who's averaging 65 yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry, might get this on one long run to the house. This is just asking him to get 40 percent of what the Broncos usually give up.

Vinnie Iyer

Vinnie Iyer Photo

Vinnie Iyer, has been with TSN since 1999, not long after graduating from Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. He has produced NFL content for more than 20 years, turning his attention to full-time writing in 2007. A native of St. Louis, Mo. but now a long-time resident of Charlotte, N.C. Vinnie’s top two professional sports teams are Cardinals and Blues, but he also carries purple pride for all things Northwestern Wildcats. He covers every aspect of the NFL for TSN including player evaluations, gambling and fantasy football, where he is a key contributor. Vinnie represents TSN as host of the “Locked On Fantasy Football” podcast on the Locked On network. Over his many years at TSN, he’s also written about MLB, NBA, NASCAR, college football, tennis, horse racing, film and television. His can’t-miss program remains “Jeopardy!”, where he was once a three-day champion and he is still avid about crossword puzzles and trivia games. When not watching sports or his favorite game show, Vinnie is probably watching a DC, Marvel or Star Wars-related TV or movie.