Brock Osweiler could not have asked for a better opportunity. The Broncos quarterback caught a huge break at the perfect time when starter Peyton Manning was injured and deactivated for the foreseeable future.
He took over a team with a 7-2 record and the best defense in the NFL — a lock for the playoffs. Osweiler, who happens to be free agent after the season, will look to cash in big. But the Broncos will be left with difficult roster decisions.
IYER: Hold your horses on Osweiler over Manning | MORE: Power Rankings
Many outside of Denver did not know who Osweiler was going into the season. The fourth-year pro had thrown a total of 30 passes as Manning’s backup. Osweiler, Denver’s second-round pick in 2012, seemed destined to follow the path of many backups — a short-term deal for around $3.5 million a season with hopes to score a starting job in the future.
But two games into his starting career, visions of that type of contract are gone. With the Broncos 2-0 in Osweiler's two starts, fans have been quick to support him. Rather than replacing Manning the legend, he replaced an imposter who happened to wear Manning’s name on the back of his jersey.
In the nine games he played, Manning was ineffective; one of the worst (if not the worst) quarterbacks in the NFL. Osweiler’s performance since has seemingly squashed the "what happens if Manning is healthy" question, even though Osweiler hasn’t put up huge numbers or done anything special. The bar was set so low, any decent performance would have been viewed as great.
In the NFL, that leads to big money at quarterback. And timing can't be understated — just ask Matt Cassel.
Cassel was a seventh-round draft pick who rarely saw the field in college, let alone the pros. He replaced an injured Tom Brady in 2008 and was given no chance because of his lack of experience on a Patriots team that had gone undefeated the year prior. He won 11 games, and it didn’t matter that Cassel was never great. He won, and the Chiefs subsequently signed him to a contract that contained over $35 million in guarantees.
The scarcity of quarterback talent dictates large salaries for players who simply show a glimmer of hope. It’s why only $3 million per year separates Ryan Tannehill (the 10th highest-paid quarterback) from Aaron Rodgers (the top-paid quarterback). Compare that to running back, for which $10 million per year separates Adrian Peterson from the 10th highest-paid player.
Quarterbacks don’t need to prove they deserve big money. They just need the opportunity to show they might deserve it. Osweiler is making the most of that opportunity.
But the Broncos, with whom negotiating player-friendly contracts can be difficult, are in a predicament. It was a given that they would use their franchise tag on star pass rusher Von Miller to maintain negotiating leverage, but that would allow Osweiler to hit free agency. Now, they probably see Osweiler as deserving of a contract similar to Nick Foles’ $12.2 million per year extension with the Rams.
MORE: NFL's 25 highest-paid players | 10 highest-paid defensive players
Osweiler turns 26 in 2016, and if he finishes the year with a 6-1 or 5-2 record as a starter, he will have no reason to take that type of offer from Denver … not when a desperate team would pay millions more in free agency. It could cause the Broncos to change plans and lose their leverage with Miller by extending the linebacker to a contract close to Ndamukong Suh’s $19 million per year, then franchising Osweiler at a number between $19 and $20 million.
Manning has a cap figure of over $21 million next season, and it’s doubtful that the Broncos will entertain the thought of him playing quarterback next year. A team like the Broncos, who are built to win now, shouldn't take a chance on a (late first-round) rookie QB. Likely available free agents would include always-injured Sam Bradford, veteran journeyman Matt Schaub or reclamation projects like Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III — none seem enticing.
So for Denver, it may be Osweiler or bust.
The Broncos built a great team to help Manning ride off into the sunset. But instead, it’s Osweiler utilizing that team to maximize his value as he enters the prime of his career. If he keeps winning, somebody — the Broncos or another team — will pay him millions.
— Jason Fitzgerald is an NFL salary expert and contributor for Sporting News. Read more of his writing at OverTheCap.com and follow him on Twitter: @Jason_OTC.