It's almost time for a December to remember (shoutout to those old Lexus ads), but before we can flip the calendar to the final month of 2023, we still have some things to take care of. Maybe it was a long night; maybe you just slept in a lot later than usual. Don't be alarmed though, your eyes aren't deceiving you -- there really is a football game on Black Friday. Perhaps Amazon, the NFL, and Jets fans would like to black out the game, but the Dolphins are primed to start this new tradition off with a bang as they battle their AFC East rival in the shadows of the shopping capital of the world.
The matchup has lost most of the hype it had when the NFL schedule was originally released, largely thanks to a Jets team that's seen their flight grounded since Week 1. They're onto their third quarterback, Tim Boyle, and boast an offense that is allergic to scoring points. Miami's high-flying offense is ready to heat up a chilly weekend in the Northeast, though, all while you run through your shopping list and overwork retail employees all day long. In a week of giving thanks, don't forget to let those people know you appreciate them, too. Just like making the perfect DraftKings lineup, it isn't easy.
Before we get into our lineup and strategy, here are the key scoring settings for DraftKings Showdown contests: They're full-point PPR and there are three-point bonuses for 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, and 100 receiving yards. The Captain pick costs 1.5 times a player's original price, but he also gets his point total multiplied by 1.5.
MORE BLACK FRIDAY NFL: ATS pick | Best props
Dolphins-Jets DraftKings Picks: DFS lineup for Week 12 Black Friday
$50,000 budget, need at least one player from each team.
Captain (1.5x points, 1.5x salary): WR Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($18,600)
New York's defense rightfully gets a lot of praise, but there's another element at play here -- emotion. This team is somehow sitting at 4-6 despite owning an offense that couldn't score to save their lives. Last week's game in Buffalo showed how the Jets' defense quit, frustrated by having to play perfect games in order to win. That resulted in a change at quarterback, but it's important to note that these issues run much deeper. Aaron Rodgers would've covered them up, but it's impossible to do without him. That's where Hill comes in. Teams have begun to exploit Gang Green by moving their star receivers to the slot, away from the likes of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. The speedster Hill is a matchup nightmare, with the Dolphins using motion to get him free releases off the line. On an offense that can score with ease, the floodgates might open if New York struggles early on offense, leading to another big day from Hill.
FLEX RB Raheem Mostert, Dolphins ($10,200)
The one-two punch of Hill and Mostert is too much for many teams to handle, and that won't be any different on Friday. While we're projecting a bit with the Hill pick, facts back up this Mostert selection. The Jets are allowing the eighth most rushing yards per game (101.3) and fantasy points (18.0) to running backs. That's a recipe for disaster against a Miami team that can run at will. There's always a lot of talk about how the Jets rotate their defensive lineman to keep them fresh, but a long season without much hope for the playoffs will make for some tired legs for a defense that has been on the field a ton in 2023. Whether De'Von Achane (knee) plays or not, the Dolphins can support multiple fantasy-relevant running backs, and we like Mostert to headline that backfield on Friday.
FLEX RB Breece Hall, Jets ($7,600)
Picking a Jets player in this game feels cruel, and it's an indication of how the football gods feel about us. What was once an offense with so much promise is down to offensive linemen who normally would be getting ready for XFL training camp and a quarterback who couldn't even complete 50 percent of passes in college. Dreams of hoisting a Super Bowl trophy are now visions of holding one of the top picks in April's draft. But at least there's Hall, Hall, and more Hall. That's what we should expect from the Jets offense on Friday. They'll try to get the running game going and also involve him in the passing game. It's a different offensive coordinator and a different quarterback, but this has shades of the game when Michael Carter caught nine-of-14 targets after Mike White took over for Zach Wilson in 2021. Hall will have his fingerprints all over this game in what should be another clunker from Nathaniel Hackett's group.
FLEX D/ST Dolphins ($5,200)
A team that can't score touchdowns is matching up against a defense on the rise. If it seems simple, that's because it is. The Dolphins have Jalen Ramsey back in the fold and some pass rushers who will continue to make New York's tackles look like turnstiles at the subway stations. There will be turnovers and sacks for the defense, but don't underestimate the special teams' potential to make something happen for the Dolphins against a Jets unit that has fallen off in recent weeks.
FLEX K Greg Zuerlein, Jets ($5,000)
What's better than no points at all? Three! That seems to be where Hackett's offense peaks -- settling for field goals. Hey, at least they're getting on the board. Boyle is not the savior some Jets fans have made him out to be, and Hackett's "gold zone" won't suddenly become an area of prosperity. Perhaps they can move the ball a little better, but it won't be enough to dance in the end zone. Greg the Leg continues his solid season with multiple field goals on Friday afternoon.
FLEX TE Tyler Conklin, Jets ($3,200)
We highly doubt Boyle is coming in to play like Aaron Rodgers, but he should be able to operate more freely than Zach Wilson. In his first real action this year, we anticipate Conklin being featured plenty as a security blanket for the quarterback. Conklin has been good when given the opportunity this season and should be in position to put together another solid effort. If by some miracle the Jets work their way into a scoring opportunity, the tight end will definitely be on the list of ones to watch.
MORE DK SHOWDOWN: How to win a Showdown contest
Best SuperDraft Dolphins-Jets DFS Picks
This year, we're also listing our favorite single-game DFS plays on SuperDraft.
For those unfamiliar, SuperDraft's DFS scoring involves point multipliers as opposed to traditional salary-capped or tiered contests. A winning lineup will likely feature a strong mix of stud fantasy contributors with 1x-1.6x boosts, as well as matchup-based sleepers with larger multipliers. Each player is assigned a scoring multiplier based on their value as determined by SuperDraft. Users can roster any player in their lineup with no restrictions.
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Here are the most notable scoring rules for SuperDraft NFL contests: Half-point PPR, four-point passing TDs, two-point bonuses for 100 rushing yards, 100 receiving yards, and 300 passing yards.
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS: How to play SuperDraft
- Champion (+50% points): RB Raheem Mostert, Dolphins (Multiplier 1.9x)
- Super FLEX: WR Tyreek Hill, Dolphins (Multiplier 1x)
- Super FLEX: WR Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins (Multiplier 1.3x)
- Super FLEX: RB Breece Hall, Jets (Multiplier 1.5x)
- Super FLEX: WR Garrett Wilson, Jets (Multiplier 1.4x)
Don't let the Jets' defensive hype fool you -- the Dolphins' skill position players are in line for a great day. Mike McDaniel will have his guys ready to go as they continue their quest for an AFC East title. Meanwhile, on the Jets' side of things, they are just trying to keep their young stars happy enough to avoid offseason turmoil before Rodgers returns next year.
