When the Bills (9-4) travel to face the Steelers (8-5) on 'Sunday Night Football' (8:20 p.m. ET) in the penultimate game of NFL Week 15, it will be a matchup of the AFC's current two wild card-positioned playoff teams for 2019.
Buffalo and Pittsburgh look like they will make the tournament in some form behind New England and Baltimore in their respective divisions. But while the winner can almost guarantee a spot, the loser will be sweating a lot more going into the final two weeks of the regular season.
Here's how we see the critical conference game possibly playing out in prime time:
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds at Sports Insider
Betting odds for 'Thursday Night Football'
- Spread: Pick 'em
- Point total: 37
- Odds: Bills -105, Steelers -115
The Steelers opened as two-point favorites per Sports Insider, and the line has dropped by a half-point four times to make this a toss-up game. The Bills have had momentum as slight road underdogs to close the gap, despite the game being played in Heinz Field.
Bills vs. Steelers all-time series
The Steelers are 16-9 in the rivalry, winning six straight games going back to 2001. They have also taken 10 of the past 11 meetings. When the Bills played the Steelers last in 2016, they lost 27-20 at home. The Bills have never won in Heinz Field.
Three trends to know
— Sixty-one percent of spread bettors like the Bills. Sixty-two percent of moneyline bettors also like the Bills.
— Fifty-four percent of bettors like the game to go over the low point total. Only 3 of 13 Bills games have gone over. Only 3 of 13 Steelers games have gone over.
— The Bills are 8-4-1 against the spread. The Steelers are 7-4-2 against the spread. Something will need to give here.
MORE: NFL playoff picture: Updated AFC, NFC standings for Week 15
Three things to watch
James Conner returns
The Steelers have really missed their second-year running back, who is finally good to go again coming off a shoulder injury. He should split work as they try not to overwork him, but they've been struggling to find consistency with the backfield, both with Benny Snell's power running and Jaylen Samuels' outlet receiving. If he looks strong against a sometimes vulnerable Bills run defense, he could end up pushing 20 touches as Pittsburgh looks to put away the game.
Josh Allen against the Steelers' pass defense
Allen had one of his worst games this season at home against the Ravens last week. The degree of difficulty is raised here against a nastier Steelers pass defense on the road this week. Their pass rush can cause him plenty of problems, and their deep secondary is rolling against limited receivers. Allen needs to dig deep, make some tough throws and pick good spots to run to help the Bills win.
The kicking game
The Bills and Steelers are bound to play a low-scoring game with the offenses struggling against two very good defenses. This game could easily turn on a clutch long field goal, a big field goal miss, a monster return or a turnover in transition. The team that's steadier in the third phase will likely win the game.
MORE: What channel is Bills vs. Steelers?
Stat that matters
Steelers undrafted quarterback Devlin Hodges has gone 3-0 in his first three career starts. "Duck" has avoided turnovers. He has completed 71.3 percent of his passes with four touchdowns to only two interceptions. He has averaged a healthy 8.5 yards per attempt with a 103.2 rating. He has done exactly what coach Mike Tomlin wanted as a third-stringer: big plays when needed without big mistakes.
Bills vs. Steelers prediction
The Bills' and Steelers' defenses will be amped up with the emotions and implications of the game. The quarterbacks will need to be careful with the ball and take advantage of limited scoring opportunities. With Pittsburgh's passing game shorthanded again without JuJu Smith-Schuster and Vance McDonald, it will lean on Conner and run to complement the defense enough to pull this out.
Steelers 20, Bills 17
