Every year, especially during the home stretch of the regular season, Super Bowl winner becomes one of the most heavily wagered futures on the NFL betting market. What many casual bettors don't realize is that BetMGM and other sportsbooks allow users to bet on the specific matchup — or even the exact outcome — of the Big Game in order to increase their potential payout on February 11. But is there value in such a niche market — or is this far too risk for too little a reward?
We all know the powerhouse 49ers (+210) are the favorite to go all the way. Despite Brock Purdy's Christmas Day hiccup against the Ravens, San Francisco remains the most heavily bet team to win the Super Bowl. Kyle Shanahan's squad comprises a whopping 17.7 percent of the SB 58 handle, more than double the reigning-champion Chiefs (8.5%) and defending NFC-champion Eagles (8.4%). Baltimore has seen its odds shorten as well, from +550 on Dec. 19 to +350 today, after jumping from 4.8 percent of the SB handle to a flat seven percent.
It's tough to argue with the betting public's consensus that these two franchises have the best chance to represent their respective conferences on the biggest stage in sports next month. But it's also difficult to justify betting a Super Bowl favorite on either side over 13 other playoff teams, especially with shortened odds that yield potential payouts of just 3.1 to 4.5 times the amount at stake. That's why some bettors often roll the dice on exact matchups or results in order to make a bigger profit while still playing the favorites.
Let's dive into these niche props on BetMGM's NFL futures market, and determine whether it makes sense to dabble in an exact Super Bowl scenario or run as fast as we can toward the other direction.
Super Bowl 58 "Name the Finalists" odds
All odds courtesy BetMGM. Displaying odds shorter than +10000.
| Matchup | Odds |
| Ravens vs. 49ers | +300 |
| Bills vs. 49ers | +700 |
| Chiefs vs. 49ers | +800 |
| Ravens vs. Cowboys | +1100 |
| Dolphins vs. 49ers | +1200 |
| Ravens vs. Eagles | +1400 |
| Ravens vs. Lions | +2200 |
| Chiefs vs. Cowboys | +2500 |
| Browns vs. 49ers | +3000 |
| Jaguars vs. 49ers | +3000 |
| Chiefs vs. Eagles | +3500 |
| Dolphins vs. Cowboys | +3500 |
| Dolphins vs. Eagles | +4000 |
| Chiefs vs. Lions | +5000 |
| Ravens vs. Rams | +6600 |
| Browns vs. Cowboys | +8000 |
No big surprises when it comes to the odds and rankings here — the 49ers and Ravens both have the most signature wins this season, and both appear the strongest from top to bottom entering the playoffs. After talking to John Ewing of BetMGM, I was also not surprised that those two teams comprise the most heavily bet specific Super Bowl matchup. Here are the three potential matchups that appear on the most tickets amongst BetMGM's SB 58 bettors:
- Ravens-49ers 7.7%
- Bills-49ers 4.2%
- Chiefs-49ers 4.0%
Again, no surprises. Oftentimes the most heavily bet teams are also the most popular and/or the hottest going into the playoffs. Baltimore, San Francisco, and Buffalo have all been clicking on all cylinders recently and/or have the most firepower. Kansas City has simply been there before, so fans and bettors expect Patrick Mahomes and company to save the ship by title time.
Let's discuss how we would approach this market, starting with what we would not do.
Biggest fade: Ravens vs. 49ers (+300)
Let's get right down to brass tacks: there's no value in betting the Ravens and 49ers to both get to the Super Bowl. Parlaying two favorites in a futures market — especially in a day and age when high-profile injuries are more common than favorites covering in primetime — is an exercise in futility. If you really believe in the 49ers' chances to get there, bet them -120 to win the NFC Championship. But as you can see, the books aren't nearly as confident in which team will come out of the AFC.
Baltimore vs. San Francisco is the most popular pick for multiple reasons:
- Recency bias: the Ravens just smacked around the Niners 33-19 on Christmas
- Storyline: Baltimore beat San Fran when thees teams met in the "Harbaugh Bowl" 11 years ago
- Star power: Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy sit 1st and 3rd, respectively, in MVP odds while Christian McCaffrey is a -375 favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year
But the storyline everyone expects to unveil rarely comes to fruition. Sure, the two winningest teams and top two MVP candidates met in last year's Super Bowl, but how often does that happen twice in a row? If this sort of thing was predictable, Vegas would have far fewer tall buildings. Treat Ravens-49ers at +300 like gas-station sushi — stay the heck away.
Best values
In this niche market, you're better off betting a smaller amount on a strong but dark-horse storyline. Bet $10 on the Cowboys and Dolphins (+3500), America's Team vs. the new powerhouse and old-school Jerry vs. new-school Mike McDaniel. Put $20 on the Ravens and Eagles (+1400) and root for the two best mobile QBs to make it to the Big Dance. Bet $5 on the Browns and 49ers (+3000), two of the best defenses in the world with the most unlikely QB matchup in Super Bowl history.
We know Dallas and Miami can go nuclear offensively at the drop of a hat, so there will always be value in backing either of those teams with early-round home-field advantages (how fun does Tyreek vs. CeeDee sound?). We also know that LJax and Jalen Hurts, perennial MVP candidates, are two of the hardest players in football to contain in clutch situations. And no team has been hotter over the past five weeks than Joe Flacco and the Browns, who average a disgusting 323 passing yards per game over that span. There's value on this market — you just have to scroll down a bit to find it.
Super Bowl 58 "Exact Outcome" odds
| Outcome | Odds |
| 49ers to beat Ravens | +650 |
| Ravens to beat 49ers | +650 |
| 49ers to beat Bills | +1400 |
| 49ers to beat Chiefs | +1400 |
| Chiefs to beat 49ers | +1600 |
| Cowboys to beat Ravens | +2000 |
| Ravens to beat Cowboys | +2000 |
| Dolphins to beat 49ers | +2200 |
| 49ers to beat Dolphins | +2200 |
| Eagles to beat Ravens | +2800 |
| Ravens to beat Eagles | +2800 |
| Chiefs to beat Cowboys | +4000 |
| Cowboys to beat Chiefs | +4000 |
| Lions to beat Ravens | +4000 |
| Cowboys to beat Bills | +4000 |
| Bills to beat Cowboys | +4000 |
| Eagles to beat Bills | +5000 |
| Bills to beat Eagles | +5000 |
| Chiefs to beat Eagles | +5000 |
| 49ers to beat Browns | +5000 |
| Eagles to beat Chiefs | +5000 |
| 49ers to beat Jaguars | +5000 |
| Dolphins to beat Cowboys | +5000 |
| Cowboys to beat Dolphins | +5000 |
| Jaguars to beat 49ers | +5000 |
| Browns to beat 49ers | +5000 |
| Dolphins to beat Eagles | +8000 |
| Eagles to beat Dolphins | +8000 |
| Chiefs to beat Lions | +8000 |
| Lions to beat Chiefs | +8000 |
| Lions to beat Bills | +8000 |
| Bills to beat Lions | +8000 |
Exact outcome best bets
We're not going to lie — just making this table made our heads hurt. This market is so niche and difficult to gauge that you almost have to look at it like buying lottery tickets. Picking both teams to make the Super Bowl is hard enough — picking the exact Super Bowl scenario before any of the 14 playoff teams even play a postseason game is like guessing a lock combination.
Certain scenarios seem more appealing than others, of course. A small wager on the 49ers over the Ravens (+650) seems okay, but we can't imagine going heavy on such a specific outcome at such short odds. The 49ers to beat the Dolphins at +2200 seems appealing — you have the storyline of Mike McDaniel and Raheem Mostert vs. Shanny and their former team.
Other fun outcomes would be the Ravens to beat the Eagles (+2800) or the 49ers to beat the Browns (+5000), for the same reasons we explained in the "Name the Finalists" section. Those matchups. Obviously, though, you would want to keep the stakes low and minimize your total involvement in this specific market.
For the most part, we would fade the Eagles, Dolphins, and Chiefs to win any Super Bowl matchup simply because of how suspect they have looked in big-game situations against true studs. We also have a difficult time backing the Lions — the betting public's preseason Super Bowl darling — as their defense in the home stretch has been way too shaky.
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