NFL Stat Leaders 2023 Odds, Best Bets: League leader props include Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill yardage

The summer may appear young, but it's already flying by, and before we know it, we'll be discussing preseason NFL action. We've already started making our 2023 NFL futures bets, including MVP, Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year, and Comeback Player of the Year. Now, it's time for us to talk about another fun group of futures odds for bettors to wager on: stat leaders. 

Stats tend to drive the award races — especially QBs and the MVP discussion — but there are some obvious exceptions. The player who leads all QBs in rushing yards might not even sniff MVP consideration if his team has a sub-.500 record or his passing numbers stink. The running back who leads the NFL in ground yards but fails to get his team to the playoffs or break rushing records probably won't even pull down Offensive Player of the Year.

We've seen insane stat performances from five different players over the past four years: Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, and Michael Thomas. It's wildly fun watching these dynamic skill-position players go HAM on the entire league, and it's even more fun when we bet on them to lead a particular stat category and they wind up making it happen. That's almost as good as nailing a first-round pick in your fantasy football draft or drafting a sleeper who turns into a diamond in the rough.

MORE 2023 NFL BETTING ODDS, BEST BETS, MARKET INSIGHTS: 
MVP | DPOY | OPOY | DROY | OROY | Comeback Player

Let's get right into it and check out the various stat leader categories and odds boards, briefly discuss the market report and BetMGM bettor insights, and ultimately make our betting advice for each category. Good luck and happy futures betting!

All odds and insights courtesy of BetMGM. Click here for more odds and sign up for BetMGM today!

Who will lead the NFL in passing TDs in 2023? Betting odds, best bets

Best bet for most passing TDs: Joe Burrow (+400)

Last season, Patrick Mahomes ran away with the most passing yards (5,250) and passing TDs (41), leaving Justin Herbert in his dust 500-plus yards behind him and beating out Burrow by a half-dozen TD tosses. This season, we have Burrow finally taking a step forward to become the king of the passing TDs.

It only makes sense, right? Burrow has steadily improved each year, from a 2-7-1 QB record in his rookie season to 10-6 and Super Bowl-bound in his sophomore season. Last year, the Bengals finished 12-4 and came up just short of their second-straight Super Bowl appearance. If not for Mahomes triumphantly leading the Chiefs over Burrow's boys in the AFC Championship, Joey B would probably be the odds-on favorite to lead this stat category. 

BetMGM has Burrow and Mahomes listed as co-favorites to win MVP at +650, pretty remarkable considering Mahomes just put up 5,250 yards and Burrow has never topped 4,611. Oddsmakers must be expecting a jump in TDs, and so are we.

The only man standing in the way of Burrow being the air TD leader last year was Mahomes, who just lost JuJu Smith-Schuster to the Patriots and Mecole Hardman to the Jets. Asking Mahomes to lead the league again is a tall order given he will be relying on an almost-34 and heavily covered Travis Kelce, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and a host of mid-tier receivers. Meanwhile, Burrow has Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Irv Smith Jr., among others. Joey B to the moon!

Other great bets for most passing TDs

Bills QB Josh Allen (+450), who tied Burrow for the second-most air TDs in 2022, will always be a threat to lead the league with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis on either side of him. We also love the odds we're getting with the Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa (+1600), who had an NFL-best 6.4 TD percentage last season and finished with 25 TDs in just 13 games. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle out wide, the only challenge to Tua Time will be health. Last but not least, don't sleep on the Vikings' Kirk Cousins (+2500), with the best wideout in the world in Justin Jefferson, a great end-zone target in tight end T.J. Hockenson, and a Rookie of the Year sleeper Jordan Addison. 

Most passing TDs: Market report

Not surprisingly, people have been smash-betting Mahomes and Herbert, but the eyebrow-raisers here is that Lamar Jackson has generated 33.3 percent of the money in the passing TDs category while Tagovailoa has commanded 8.1 percent of the handle. With both athletic QBs at big-time plus odds, this kind of action makes them quite the pair of liabilities for BetMGM this season. We know at least one book that will be rooting for L-Jax and Tua to keep running!

Who will lead the NFL in passing yards in 2023? Betting odds, best bets

Best bet for most passing yards: Patrick Mahomes (+400)

It's boring, we get it, but with Tom Brady retired and Aaron Rodgers in a new offense with his 40th birthday looming, Mahomes is almost a stone-cold lock to run away with the most passing yards. His 5,250 beat out Justin Herbert by 511 yards last year, and Brady was the only other QB to crack 4,600. 

What helps bettors with a Mahomes pick here is that Kansas City lost wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman to free agency, so Mahomes will need to do more with less to stay atop the West. The AFC in general is also expected to be much improved this season with the Jets getting Aaron Rodgers, the Broncos hiring Sean Payton, and the Chargers and Ravens getting healthy. Like last year, Mahomes won't be sitting out the Chiefs' 17th game.

No QB in the league has more raw talent and athleticism than Mahomes, and the more Andy Reid ask of him, the more sorcery he seems to unveil. This should be yet another banner year for the two-time Super Bowl MVP and two-time MVP. Bet against him at your own risk. 

Other solid bets for most passing yards

If we were to bet any other QBs besides Mahomes for most passing yards, we would probably spread our futures bankroll around between Justin Herbert (+600), Josh Allen (+900), and Dak Prescott (+1800). Both Geno Smith and Russell Wilson also make for intriguing long-shot bets at +2500. All five of these players have flirted with leading the league in passing yards before, enjoy strong coaching, and have stud receivers. We understand if you like Joe Burrow (+600), too, but those odds are a little short for a player who has never finished better than fifth in this stat category. You're probably better off going with fellow Ohio-based QB Deshaun Watson (+3000), as his payout would be exponentially higher, he's a year into his stint as Browns QB and ready for his first full season at the Dawg Pound, and he led the NFL in passing yards in 2020. 

Most passing yards: Market report

Contrary to "Most Passing TDs," the usual suspects comprise nearly 70 percent of the money wagered on most passing yards. Sharps are also thinking like us with the Deshaun Watson long shot, with over four percent of the handle on the three-time Pro Bowler. Many seem to be expecting Aaron Rodgers to return to MVP form, but we're fading Rodgers in a major way. Breece Hall and Sauce Gardner are the stars in New York, and Rodgers' days of 400-500 yard games are well behind him. We would have more interest in the Lions' Jared Goff at +1400 than Rodgers at +2000.

Who will lead the NFL in rushing yards in 2023? Betting odds, best bets

Best bet for most rushing yards: Derrick Henry (+900)

When he's healthy, there's nobody we would rather put our chips in front of than King Henry. He has led the NFL in carries in three of the past four seasons, a span in which he has averaged 109.9 rushing yards per game. Don't let his relatively underwhelming 2022 average of 96.1 ground yards per game deceive you. The Titans dealt with a lot of injuries and the box was almost always stacked against Henry, but he still finished just behind Josh Jacobs for most rushing yards. Friggin' Josh Dobbs and Malik Willis had to start a combined five games, and Robert Woods and Austin Hooper were Tennessee's top two receivers at season's end! There's nowhere to go but up for this Titans offense, which means Henry will once again move up to rushing king status.

Other decent bets for most rushing yards

I personally love the Texans' Dameon Pierce (+3000), as he's a pure power runner with youth (he's 23) and very little competition around him. He could emerge as a world-beater like Arian Foster once did for Houston years ago to lead the NFL in yardage (back in 2010, when Pierce was 10 years old). We're also somewhat intrigued by Justin Fields (+2000). The Bears QB started just 15 games last season and finished with 1,143 ground yards, good for an NFL-best 7.1 yards per game. It's a long shot, but a fun one. Imagine hitting the jackpot on the first QB to lead the NFL in rushing yards!

Most rushing yards: Market report

It's wild to see over 50 percent of the handle on Harris, with a ton of bettors loving his long odds at +1600. We don't hate it, as new offensive assistant coach Glenn Thomas should put the ball in Harris's hands much more than 2022. However, we fully expect more targets going his way, which makes him a far less solid bet than Henry. Any bet on J.K. Dobbins or Christian McCaffrey seems like an exercise in futility at this point. Both have been marred by injuries throughout their careers and neither probably cares too much about a single-season rushing title. Jonathan Taylor has been there, done that and also has injury concerns. Second-year backs Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III are also coming off major injuries sustained in 2022 and thus should be faded in favor of the real sophomore stud in Pierce.

Who will lead the NFL in QB rushing yards in 2023? Betting odds, best bets

Best bet for most QB rushing yards: Justin Fields

Sometimes the best bet is the most obvious one, and honestly, this one seems like a runaway for Fields. Only the Ravens' Lamar Jackson in his record-breaking 2019 season has finished a campaign with more rushing yards (1,206) than Fields did in '22 (1,143). You read that right — Fields eclipsed Michael Vick's rushing numbers in his Falcons years. Now the 24-year-old gets a full season to do his thing, while L-Jax at 26 will be looking to throw more so he can stay on the field and off the IR. We're not too worried about Anthony Richardson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, or Daniel Jones. The rookie has a brutal offensive line and expected growing pains to get through, and the other three will be trying to win a Super Bowl for their respective franchises. The only volatility with Fields is the fact that running QBs almost always seem to get hurt.

Who will lead the NFL in receiving yards in 2023? Betting odds, best bets

Best bet for most receiving yards: Justin Jefferson (+600)

He's the best receiver in the free world. He's so damn good that he launched Kirk friggin' Cousins into the top four in passing yards last season. We seem to take Jefferson's greatness for granted, in much the same respect as Shohei Ohtani and Nikola Jokic are taken for granted in MLB and the NBA. But we're not shying away from the best bet just because it yields the shortest odds. Like we said with Fields in the QB rushing category, sometimes the best bet is the most logical and obvious one. The reigning Offensive Player of the Year led the NFL with 128 catches, 1,809 yards, 106.4 yards per game, and 13.9 yards per touch last year — do you want to bet against him?

Other decent bets for most receiving yards 

If Jefferson (or Cousins) were to get hurt, we would expect the Dolphins' Tyreek Hill (+800) and Raiders' Davante Adams (+1200) to be right in the mix, but our favorite sleeper is the Jets' Garrett Wilson (+1800), who should be Aaron Rodgers new best friend in New York. Wilson looked special en route to Offensive Rookie of the Year honors last season, eclipsing 1,100 yards despite enduring some truly awful quarterback play from Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White.

Who will lead the NFL in catches in 2023? Betting odds, best bets

Best bet for most receptions: Travis Kelce (+1000)

While it's tempting to also go with Jefferson here, we can't stay away from Kelce's +1000 odds. With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman both departing via free agency this offseason, Kelce will be even more important than ever to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The stud tight end caught 110-of-152 targets last season and could easily see closer to 200 looks during this campaign (you may laugh, but a player seeing 200+ targets in a season has happened three times, all during the era of the 16-game regular season: Marvin Harrison with 205 in 2002, Calvin Johnson with 204 in 2012, and Julio Jones with 203 in 2015. Bar trivia, anyone?). Look, Kelce is turning 34 this year, so this could be his last chance at stat-padding and taking down Offensive Player of the Year, and nobody can argue with the volume these two have produced together. We're all in on this one.

Other favorites for most receptions

Of course, Justin Jefferson (+650) is a best bet, but his low handle percentage should tell you he's nowhere near a sharp favorite. Those are some short odds for a guy who averages 14-15 yards per reception. You might be better off with Garrett Wilson (+4000), with Aaron Rodgers' arm not what it once was but the veteran likely still pumping it to his best receiver consistently. CeeDee Lamb (+2500) is a sneaky good bet in Dallas, as is Amon-Ra St. Brown (+2000) in Detroit. What's with all the love for Jerry Jeudy (+8000)? Russell Wilson just had an atrocious 2022 season and Jeudy and Courtland Sutton were injured most of the year. We'll pass on that smoke. 

Who will lead the NFL in receiving TDs in 2023? Betting odds, best bets

Best bet for most receiving TDs: Davante Adams (+850)

How is Adams not at +650 after leading the NFL with 14 touchdowns in 2022? Does the betting public think he will see fewer red-zone looks with Jimmy Garoppolo under center? I don't. Jimmy G will use every bit of Adams' end-zone brilliance to pad his stats, and while I don't love their chances of setting any passing/receiving yards records or making any significant noise in the postseason, I do expect this tandem to compile somewhere between 12 and 15 scores through the air. Who else will catch TDs? Darren Waller bounced for New York to miss passes from Daniel Jones. Hunter Renfrow is a slot man and a shell of his former self. Former Patriot Jakobi Meyers is great between the 20s but only has eight total TDs in 60 career games. No wideouts besides Justin Jefferson and Cooper Kupp mean more to their offense than Adams, and Jefferson has some help while Kupp is just flat-out playing on an awful Rams team. Adams for the W.

Other strong bets for most receiving TDs

Our next favorite bet is Kelce (+850) for the same reasons we love him to lead the NFL in catches. Ja'Marr Chase (+650) is always a strong bet, but these odds feel way too short for a guy who just maxed out at 11 TDs and has to compete with Tee Higgins (+2000) in the scoring zone. DK Metcalf (+2000) is a sneaky good play in Seattle where Geno Smith just keeps getting better and better. If Chargers wideout Keenan Allen or Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (both +4000) can play 17 games, they will be right there as potential long-shot jackpots.