It has been quite the rollercoaster couple of weeks in the NFL, with blowouts, upsets, injuries, and surprise developments. Spread betting early in the season remains volatile, but prop betting continues to provide bettors with a less volatile market. So today, as we do every Friday, my SN Bets colleagues and I will unveil our 12 favorite SuperDraft player props from the NFL's Sunday slate.
The concept for this column is simple: Every week, the four of us each pick our three favorite player props from the upcoming weekend's games. We research the matchups, dive into the betting trends, and handpick the wagers that yield the most value. Along the way, we will keep a weekly record of each of our successes and failures, and of course reveal our updated standings. Our motivations are two-fold: beat our colleagues, and help you beat the book. The more we win, the more money our readers make!
Last week, our experts went 8-4 collectively, with yours truly once again leading the pack with a 3-0 record. My three hits — Justin Fields OVER 174.5 passing yards, Jared Goff OVER 267.5 passing yards, and Dalton Kincaid OVER 29.5 receiving yards — all went OVER by an average of 35.2 yards. Does anyone smell that? It's the magnificent stench of victory.
Here are the updated standings after Week 2 of our SN Bets SuperDraft Prop Contest:
| Expert | Week 2 | Overall |
| Sloan Piva | 3-0 | 6-0 |
| Vinnie Iyer | 2-1 | 3-3 |
| Nick Brinkerhoff | 2-1 | 3-3 |
| Nick Musial | 1-2 | 2-4 |
Excuse me while I brush my shoulders off, because yours truly has been puttin' in work! Two weeks in and my record remains immaculate, like Alec Baldwin's character in The Departed. Meanwhile, our veteran expert Vinnie Iyer and fantasy intern Nick Brinkerhoff both bounced back from tough Week 1s with 2-1 weeks. Nick "Moneyline" Musial, however, will be looking to fight his way out of the basement this weekend. Let's get it, Muse!
Time to move forward and make some money in Week 3. If you're not familiar with SuperDraft, there has never been a better time to jump in. SD's Fantasy Props feature allows users to win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. The more legs users add to their player prop parlay, the larger the potential payout becomes. But as the long odds indicate, completing a clean sweep is challenging.
That's where we come in. Our panel of experts will do the leg work, pitch our favorite props, and let you do the rest. You can window-shop our recommendations as you please and bet as few or as many of our prop picks as you see fit. Our lucky number with player prop parlays seems to be three (6X payout), but sometimes we'll put a higher stake on a two-prop parlay (3X) or a lotto-ticket wager on an eight-legger (100X).
Let's get to it. Below we will detail our 12 favorite SuperDraft player props for this weekend's NFL games. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy Week 3!
MORE: Win BIG with SuperDraft! Get a free $10 deposit when you use promo code "TSN"!
NFL Prop Picks Week 3: Our experts' favorite SuperDraft bets
Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars vs. Texans — OVER 68.5 rushing yards (Sloan Piva)
Etienne is my Sloan-cold lock of the week, with the Jaguars looking for a strong bounce-back after an abysmal Week 2 showing against the reigning-champion Chiefs. The Colts' Zack Moss just collected 88 rushing yards on 18 carries against Houston last week, so ETN should be able to get to 69 before the third frame ends.
It was a Week 5 meeting with these Texans last year that marked Etienne's breakout, with the young back rushing 10 times for 71 yards and adding 43 yards through the air. In Jacksonville's 13 games between Weeks 5 and 17, he finished with 69 rushing yards a whopping eight times. He'll do it again this week against a Houston team that's already been outscored 56-29 through two games.
MORE WEEK 3 BETTING: Best Bets | ATS | Moneyline
Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills at Commanders — OVER 69.5 receiving yards (Vinnie Iyer)
Diggs was born in Alexandria, VA, he hails not far from DC in Maryland, and he became a star as a Terps wide receiver. He returns home to play in Washington, where he had 13 catches for 164 yards as a Viking in 2016. The Commanders have one good corner in Kendall Fuller, but look for the Bills to try to get Diggs matched up often on rookie first-rounder Emmanuel Forbes or the very shaky Benjamin St-Juste. Diggs should also be motivated to come through against his injured brother Trevon’s division rivals.
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Breece Hall, RB, Jets vs. Patriots — OVER 43.5 rushing yards (Nick Brinkerhoff)
Hall recently complained about only receiving four carries in the Jets' blowout loss to the Cowboys in Week 2. That was after having 127 yards on 10 carries in Week 1. Gang Green returns home in a game that’s likely going to feature plenty of rain, meaning the offense will rely on the run. Hopefully the coaching staff clues into the fact that running behind Mekhi Becton is a recipe for success. Hall is the Jets’ best running back by far, and should earn some more carries against a Patriots defense that got shredded by Raheem Mostert on the ground last week. Take the OVER with confidence thanks to a modest number he should beat by halftime.
MORE: Sporting News' expert model predicts Jets-Patriots outcome
Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons at Lions — OVER 67.5 rushing yards (Nick Musial)
Arthur Smith unleashed Robinson last week, as the early frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year showed out with 19 carries for 124 yards in Atlanta’s come-from-behind win. While Detroit’s run defense has been more stout than Green Bay’s, we like Bijan’s chances of going OVER 67.5 rushing yards considering he has 15-plus carry potential. Robinson’s 6.2 yards per carry mark is an obvious plus, as his ability to break off chunk runs could result in Robinson going OVER his rushing yardage prop for a second straight week.
MORE FALCONS-LIONS: Betting preview | Top props
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys at Cardinals — OVER 21 completions AND OVER 231.5 passing yards (Piva)
I'm all-in on Prescott this week, as he finally gets a chance to truly show off his arm against a feeble Cardinals defense. He had terrible weather conditions in Week 1 against the Giants, who got whooped so hard by Micah Parsons and the Cowboys' defense that Dallas didn't even need Dak. And then he went against a tough Sauce Gardner-led Jets defense in Week 2.
Still, Prescott's performance against Gang Green gives us plenty of reason for optimism. All said, he completed 31-of-38 passes for 255 yards and two TDs. That's a Pro Bowl line against PFF's No. 1 ranked secondary. Now he draws an Arizona secondary that has surrendered 22.5 completions and 261.5 air yards per game? Yeah, we're buying. We want all that desert smoke, SuperDraft!
MORE COWBOYS-CARDINALS: Betting preview | Top props
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans vs. Browns — UNDER 71.5 rushing yards (Iyer)
The future Hall of Famer had nine 100-yard plus rushing efforts in 2022, including one in each of the Titans' final four games. But he’s still looking for his first in 2023, averaging just 71.5 yards per game (thus the number). What's troubling is that his lack of success isn't due to low volume, but rather poor efficiency. His career-low average of 3.6 yards per carry shows just how bad Tennessee's offensive line has become. Making matters worse, the Titans' best blocker, rookie first-round left guard Peter Skoronski, won’t play against the Browns’ nasty defensive front.
MORE: Win BIG with SuperDraft! Get a free $10 deposit when you use promo code "TSN"!
Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings vs. Chargers — OVER 291.5 passing yards (Brinkerhoff)
We can’t go into the weekend without having some exposure on the looming shootout between the Vikings and Chargers. Los Angeles has been crushed through the air in the first two weeks of the season, most notably allowing Tua Tagovailoa to throw for 466 yards. On a team that has an NFL-worst 69 rushing yards in 2023, Cousins might put up some college-type passing stats in a must-win game. With passing yard totals of 344 and 364 in the first two games, Captain Kirk will be slinging the rock all over the field and cashing another ticket for us.
MORE VIKINGS-CHARGERS: Best bets including ML, O/U | Top props
Zach Wilson, QB, Jets vs. Patriots — UNDER 17.5 passing completions (Musial)
Although the potential for a negative game script could result in Wilson attempting close to 30-plus passes this week, we still don’t think he rack up 18 or more completions. In what projects to be a close contest, expect the Jets' offensive to rely heavily on the ground game with a heavy dosage of Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. Wilson has yet to complete even 15 passes this season, so we’ll gladly bet the UNDER of 17.5 here.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders vs. Steelers — OVER 91.5 rushing + receiving yards (Piva)
Josh Jacobs has endured a tough start to the decision, with just 46 total rushing yards through two games. The reigning rushing champ has been stifled by two difficult defenses on the road, the Broncos in Week 1 and Bills in Week 2. Everything changes for Jacobs this week, though, with the Steelers' abysmal run D heading into Vegas for the Raiders' home-opener.
Through two weeks, Pittsburgh has surrendered the second-most rushing yards in the NFL to RBs (166.5 per game). And that's despite Nick Chubb going down early in the Monday Night Football game against the Browns! The Steelers have also allowed 21 receiving yards per game to RBs, which pushes their total weekly RB yield to 187.5 yards. Those numbers should have Jacobs' fantasy owners and prop-betting investors licking their chops.
Considering Jacobs bested 91.5 combined rushing and receiving yards in 12 of 17 games last year — and he saw the field for 80 percent of the Raiders' offensive snaps in their close Week 1 win over Denver — I love the OVER here. The air yards have been there for him — 74 yards in two weeks. If he puts up those 37 receiving yards this week, all he will need is 55 ground yards.
MORE RAIDERS-STEELERS: Betting preview | Top props | DK lineup | FD lineup
Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens vs. Colts — OVER 48.5 receiving yards (Iyer)
Flowers has produced above this number in his first two NFL games as the Ravens’ rookie wide receiver. The Colts’ secondary is weak, and the first-round pick could see a lot of Dallas Flowers (no relation) and Darrell Baker Jr. outside as Baltimore schemes a little away from typical slot defender Kenny Moore (who hasn’t played well so far). The Ravens should be able to do what they want offensively, and Flowers will be a big part of what should be Lamar Jackson’s biggest all-around game of the season so far.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Browns vs Titans — UNDER 234.5 passing yards (Brinkerhoff)
On the surface, the Titans have allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for over 300 yards in each of their first two games. But Watson won’t be joining that party. The controversial signal-caller is a shell of his former Pro Bowl self, seemingly forgetting how to throw the ball. Since making his Browns’ debut, Watson has played in eight games and topped 234 passing yards just twice. The most recent occasion came in Week 2, when he finished with 235 yards, a total that doesn’t inspire much confidence here. He’s thrown for under 200 yards in five of those games, indicating the struggle Cleveland’s offense has endured.
The Browns were willing to take on a PR nightmare for an elite quarterback. After doling out a huge contract, they’re still waiting for some positive return on that investment. For now, the PR disaster will likely continue — just like the trend of one of the league’s former elite quarterbacks being zapped of the powers that made him a star in the first place. Take the UNDER on a bet that won’t even make you break a sweat. (Editor's note: sick rhymes, MC Brink!).
Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders vs. Steelers — OVER 71.5 rushing yards (Musial)
(Editor's note: Two of our four experts like Jacobs this week — sounds like a smash!)
Jacobs didn’t even come close to sniffing his rushing-yardage prop last week, but we’re going back to the well and betting on the reigning rushing leader to total 72-plus yards against an exploitable Steelers run defense. Pittsburgh has allowing a league-worst 193 rushing yards per game and really misses not having All-Pro Cam Heyward to clog up the middle. With Jacobs likely to see 15-plus carries, he’s in a favorable position to go OVER his rushing yardage prop this week.
