Happy December, everybody! We're quickly approaching the most wonderful time of the year — the home stretch of the NFL regular season leading into the playoffs! Teams and players start really gunning for big wins at this segment of the schedule, with the elite trying to maintain high seeds and the middle-tier teams pushing to get into the dance. This all makes for an easier time for our SN Bets' experts when it comes to picking SuperDraft player props, which we will share with you today.
Every Friday, my colleagues Vinnie Iyer, Nick Musial, Nick Brinkerhoff join me to scour SuperDraft and pinpoint the over/under props that we think yield the most value. We then provide detailed explanations as to why those props give us the greatest chance of winning.
We typically unveil three over/under props per week — at least a dozen total — from the vast main-slate offerings on SuperDraft. The concept for the column is simple: we research the matchups, dive into the betting trends, handpick the best props, and then deliver them to you.
Along the way, we keep a weekly record of each of our weekly successes and failures — and of course, we reveal our updated season standings. Our motivations are two-fold: (1) beat our colleagues, and (2) help you beat the books. The more we win, the more money our readers make to help with Christmas gift shopping!
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Take a look at the updated standings after Week 12 of our SN Bets SuperDraft Prop Contest:
| Expert | Week 12 | Overall |
| Vinnie Iyer | 2-1 | 21-15 |
| Sloan Piva | 3-0 | 20-17 |
| Nick Musial | 3-0 | 17-17 |
| Nick Brinkerhoff | 1-2 | 11-25 |
Vinnie has now gone 13-5 over the past four weeks — the man has truly kicked it into superdrive as the season has progressed. Yours truly had an even stronger Week 12, adding yet another perfect week to my strong season, but I'm still looking to regain first place in our season-long contest.
Muse also went perfect on the week, finally pushing back to .500 on the season. As for Brinks, the man just can't catch a break — he came 2.5 yards shy of Stefon Diggs' receiving yard OVER and then suffered through his Kyler Murray rushing OVER with Murray only running the ball once all game against the Rams. We're going to start calling our boy "Ice Brinks" if this keeps up!
One thing's for certain: our panel of experts is much better than our overall record suggests. So, let's lock in some winners and capitalize on teams cranking up the volume during the home stretch. If you're not familiar with SuperDraft, check it out! SD's Fantasy Props feature allows users to win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. The more legs added to the player prop parlay, the larger the potential payout becomes. But obviously, the longer the odds, the more difficult it gets to nail down a clean sweep. Research is imperative.
That's where we come in. Our panel of experts does the leg work, finds the best value, pitches our favorite props, and lets you handle the rest. You can window-shop our recommendations as you please and bet as few or as many of our prop picks as you see fit. Our lucky number with player prop parlays seems to be two (3X payout), but sometimes we'll put a lower stake on a three-prop parlay (6X) or a lotto-ticket wager on an eight-legger (100X).
Let's get to it. Below we will detail our 12 favorite SuperDraft player props for this weekend's NFL games, with our highest-confidence picks listed first. Good luck, enjoy Week 13, and have a safe first weekend of December!
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NFL Prop Picks Week 13: Our experts' favorite SuperDraft bets
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts @ Titans — OVER 72.5 receiving yards (Vinnie Iyer)
Pittman and Josh Downs draw great matchups this weekend against the Titans’ overwhelmed cornerbacks. Pittman has been pretty good vs. Tennessee in the past. And while he only hauled in five catches for 52 yards in the Colts-Titans' October meeting in Indianapolis, he has hit 80-plus yards in four of Indy's past six games. He has truly gotten into a groove with Gardner Minshew under center, making this number quite manageable in relation to the oft-inconsistently targeted Downs.
MORE WEEK 13 BETTING: ATS | Moneyline
C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans vs. Broncos — OVER 269.5 passing yards (Sloan Piva)
Dating back to Stroud’s breakout one month ago vs. the Buccaneers, the stud rookie has averaged 26.5 completions, 366.5 passing yards, and 2.5 passing TDs per game. The Texans’ record during that four-game stretch: 3-1. The path to success for Houston is through Stroud’s arm, and we think that arm will be quite busy in what should be a close game with Russell Wilson and the red-hot Broncos.
Sure, Denver has fared well against the pass over the past couple months, but it still allows the sixth-most net yards per pass attempt and third-most total yards per game on the season. That's despite facing Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Josh Dobbs, Jordan Love, Josh “Choke Artist” Allen, and Patrick Mahome with a flu.
Stroud should be able to keep up his sizzling-hot streak this weekend at NRG Stadium, where the Texans average the third-most home passing yards per game in the NFL (306.3). We’re loud and proud with our C.J. Stroud pick. Let's go, rook!
Derrick Henry, RB, Jaguars vs. Colts — OVER 63.5 rushing yards (Nick Musial)
Henry came through for us last week, surpassing his rushing yardage prop of 70.5 with an 18-carry, 76-yard performance. We’re going back to the well in another matchup against a below-average rush defense, as Henry once again has the potential for 15 carries in a projected one-score game. Indianapolis ranks near the bottom of the league in rushing success rate (43.9 percent; 30th), which bodes well for Henry’s chances of helping the Titans stay ahead of schedule.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons @ Jets — OVER 59.5 rushing yards (Nick Brinkerhoff)
It’s no secret that Arthur Smith has an issue with the fantasy and betting community. But it was that same community that essentially bullied him into utilizing Robinson more. And unsurprisingly, the No. 8 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft is a good football player. Shocking, right?
Still, Smith’s fickle nature puts oddsmakers in a tough spot projecting the back going forward. Luckily for us, this number is far too low for someone that has finished with at least 90 yards in two consecutive games. The Jets defense rightfully gets plenty of praise, but they’ve been awfully generous to RBs this season, allowing around 107 yards per game on average.
Aaron Rodgers is back on the practice field, but reality will set in quickly in what could be one of the ugliest games of the week. On a cold, rainy day at MetLife Stadium, Robinson should torment a Jets team that looks broken on the field.
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Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers @ Eagles — OVER 31.5 receiving yards (Iyer)
The 49ers won’t be able to run straight up against the Eagles, at least not as well as they usually do from week to week. Kyle Shanahan's squad will need to get the ball to McCaffrey on the perimeter and in the open field so that he can burst for chunk gains. The Eagles allow the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs, but they surrender about as many receiving yards per game to RBs as we need to cash this weekend.
Instead of pounding McCaffrey between the tackles at Jalen Carter and other beefy run stoppers, the 49ers should opt for the ol’ extension through outlet passes. We think “Receive CMC” gets it done — with maybe a score through the air, too — as the Eagles also need to worry about the 49ers’ wideouts deep downfield.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins at Commanders — OVER 5 receptions (Piva)
Most will lean toward Tyreek Hill OVER seven receptions instead, but I happen to think the Offensive Player of the Year candidate has been struggling with his wrist and ankle injuries worse than he’s letting on. Besides, the Cheetah needs just a few plays to get to 100 yards, which would keep him well on track for the first 2,000-yard receiving season in NFL history.
Waddle has been a dutiful WR2, punching the time clock and logging an average of 5.8 catches and 74.3 yards per game over Miami’s past six contests. The Commanders have allowed the third-most passing yards in the league this season, and they have surrendered a whopping 24.7 completions per game over the past three weeks (tied for fifth-most). Jaylen should Waddle his way to six-plus catches for the fifth time since mid-October.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots vs. Chargers — OVER 62.5 rushing yards (Musial)
Given how ineffective the Patriots’ passing game has been, we expect Stevenson to capitalize on another volume opportunity after logging 20-plus carries in each of New England’s past two contests. Stevenson has totaled 88 and 98 rushing yards in those games — and against an inefficient Chargers rush defense that ranks 23rd in rushing success rate (41.5 percent), we’re betting on 'Mondre to exceed his rushing yardage prop for a third straight week.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers @ Eagles — OVER 60.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)
The Eagles' issues in the secondary are well-documented by now, as the defending NFC champs have been routinely torched by opposing receivers. That leaves Aiyuk primed for a big day, since his blend of speed, route-running, and big play ability should give Philly fits. Over the past four games, Aiyuk has either finished with around 50 yards or exploded for 100-plus.
After a fairly quiet Thanksgiving, we like the potential of an air fight in this NFC Championship Game rematch. Plenty of bad blood exists between these two teams, so we can confidently expect a busy day from Aiyuk. The young wideout has certainly done his fair share of fueling the flames, having said that the Eagles were lucky their pass defense wasn’t exposed thanks to San Fran’s quarterback injuries last season. He talked the talk, now he's gotta walk the walk.
Elijah Moore, WR, Browns at Rams — OVER 34.5 receiving yards (Iyer)
Moore will be the most familiar wide receiver target for Joe Flacco as a fellow former Jet. Amari Cooper is battling a rib injury and Flacco should be looking a lot to the middle of the field, where David Njoku has a great matchup at tight end and Moore can do some damage with target volume in the slot. This prop sets a low bar, so enjoy what should be a fruitful rekindling of former teammates.
Zack Moss, RB, Colts at Titans — OVER 77.5 rushing yards (Piva)
Every time Moss has been tasked with starting in place of Jonathan Taylor, he has knocked it out of the proverbial park. From Weeks 2 through 5 this season, he averaged 111.3 rushing yards and scored four total TDs. The last team he ran rough-shod over was these same Titans, who he bruised for 195 all-purpose yards (165 on the ground) and two scores. Tennessee’s run defense ain’t what it used to be — Mike Vrabel’s squad has surrendered a whopping 134.1 rushing yards per game since Oct. 8. Nashville faithful, you’re about to get Mossed.
Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers vs. Panthers — OVER 62.5 rushing yards (Musial)
We’re targeting high-usage backs in favorable matchups this week, as White faces a putrid Panthers rush defense that ranks 32nd in both rush EPA (0.076) and success rate (44.7%). Although White hasn’t been efficient with his workload (3.2 true yards per carry), he’s always a safe bet to see steady volume, logging the 11th-most carries (156). A day with 15 or more carries against a lackluster run defense should give White every opportunity to reach 63-plus yards on the ground.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Commanders vs. Dolphins — OVER 36.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)
Samuel certainly left Dallas with a full stomach on Thanksgiving, having been fed a season-high 12 targets against the Cowboys. The receiver finished with nine catches for a clean 100-yard performance, a feat he has a solid chance of replicating this time around.
These east-coast games will feature a steady diet of rain and chilly air, making it unlikely that we’ll see a ton of explosive plays in the passing game. With Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard holding things down on the outside, Samuel should draw the best matchup against Kader Kohou in the slot.
Samuel figures to be fairly active in the passing game as a result, especially with the Commanders likely facing another negative game script. The veteran wideout's style of play is weather-proof in a way, since Washington often utilizes him in the short passing game, making yards after the catch crucial. Despite the rain, he’ll find at least 37 yards in a pass-happy offense.
