As we turkey-trot toward Thanksgiving, the NFL storylines have been piling up like extended warranty offers on my Toyota. Injuries have been mounting on a seemingly-historic level, and we've seen upsets and surprise breakouts on an almost-weekly basis. Traditional betting has become more volatile than ever, leading many bettors to opt instead for the player prop market. Today our SN Bets expert panel will highlight our favorite SuperDraft over/under prop picks for what should be another eventful week.
The name of the game with prop betting — just like traditional betting, fantasy, and DFS — is value. Every Friday, my colleagues Vinnie Iyer, Nick Musial, Nick Brinkerhoff, and I scour SuperDraft to pinpoint the over/under props that yield the most value. We then provide a detailed explanation as to why those props give you the greatest chance of winning.
My colleagues and I unveil a dozen of our favorite SuperDraft player props for each Sunday slate. The concept for this column is simple: all four of us pick our three favorite over/under bets. We research the matchups, dive into the betting trends, handpick the best props, and then deliver them to you.
Along the way, we keep a weekly record of each of our successes and failures, and of course, reveal our updated season standings. Our motivations are two-fold: (1) beat our colleagues, and (2) help you beat the book. The more we win, the more money our readers make!
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Our betting team had two up and two down last week. Take a look at the updated standings after Week 10 of our SN Bets SuperDraft Prop Contest:
| Expert | Week 10 | Overall |
| Vinnie Iyer | 2-1 | 17-13 |
| Sloan Piva | 0-3 | 16-15 |
| Nick Musial | 2-1 | 13-15 |
| Nick Brinkerhoff | 0-3 | 10-20 |
Vinnie has now gone 9-3 over the past three weeks — the man is straight-up sizzling, and he has passed me in the season-long standings for the first time all year. Money Muse also went 2-1 last week, and his only loss was on Brian Robinson's OVER 44.5 rushing yards prop. BRob finished Washington's Week 10 loss to Seattle with 38 yards on the ground and a whopping 119 yards through the air — so frustrating!
Yours truly has embarked upon a cataclysmic rut, going 1-5 over the past two weeks (almost as bad as my Patriots going 1-6 over their past seven games). You know things have gone south when you miss a Rachaad White OVER by 0.5 yards. As for Brinks — the Jets fan of the group — the poor guy can't catch a break this season. If you get to church this weekend, please light a candle for both of us.
One thing's for certain: our panel of experts is much better than our overall record suggests. So, let's lock in some winners and move back in the right direction as a team. If you're not familiar with SuperDraft, check it out! SD's Fantasy Props feature allows users to win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. The more legs added to the player prop parlay, the larger the potential payout becomes. But as you could probably guess, the longer the odds, the more difficult it gets to nail down a clean sweep. Research is imperative.
That's where we come in. Our panel of experts does the leg work, finds the best value, pitches our favorite props, and lets you handle the rest. You can window-shop our recommendations as you please and bet as few or as many of our prop picks as you see fit. Our lucky number with player prop parlays seems to be two (3X payout), but sometimes we'll put a lower stake on a three-prop parlay (6X) or a lotto-ticket wager on an eight-legger (100X).
Let's get to it. Below we will detail our 12 favorite SuperDraft player props for this weekend's NFL games, with our highest-confidence picks listed first. Good luck, enjoy Week 11, and have a safe and happy weekend!
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NFL Prop Picks Week 11: Our experts' favorite SuperDraft bets
Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers at Packers — OVER 34.5 receiving yards (Sloan Piva)
Ekeler has hit this number in two of his past three games and four of his six contests this season. His pass-catching and open-field playmaking remain a massive part of the Chargers’ identity, and he could be called upon to play an even bigger role now that wideouts Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer are on IR and tight ends Gerald Everett (chest) and Donald Parham (hip) are banged up. The Packers have been awful against running backs all year — allowing 140 scrimmage yards per game to the position — and they allowed Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris to combine for 206 all-purpose yards last week. Ek’s OVER is a smash-play.
MORE WEEK 10 BETTING: ATS | Moneyline
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers vs. Buccaneers — OVER 65.5 receiving yards (Vinnie Iyer)
Aiyuk steps into a sweet spot at home after coming through with limited targets in a tough matchup last week. The Buccaneers’ cornerbacks, Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis are having their share of coverage issues outside. Aiyuk has been sublime with his route-running and getting open for Brock Purdy downfield. He should do this often enough against Tampa Bay.
Jerome Ford, RB, Browns vs. Steelers — OVER 49.5 rushing yards (Nick Musial)
Expect a run-heavy offensive game plan from Cleveland with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, playing into Ford’s hands. Ford’s second-highest rushing output of the season came against Pittsburgh in Week 2, and while much of that was derived from a 69-yard scamper where he reversed field, he’ll likely see sufficient volume to reach 50-plus yards against a susceptible Pittsburgh run defense.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets @ Bills — OVER 67.5 receiving yards (Nick Brinkerhoff)
Wilson always seems to be open. No one is questioning his talent, but this Jets’ offense is….woof. Nathaniel Hackett’s “gold zone” strategy is more fool’s gold than anything else, but thankfully we’re after yards and not touchdowns on Sunday in Orchard Park. G-Dub is averaging 13 targets and 90.6 yards per game over his last four, indicating the volume is definitely there. The Bills’ defense has been through the wringer a few times since these teams last clashed in Week 1 and is vulnerable to a big Wilson game. He should have plenty of success in between the 20s before Hackett’s offense goes run-run-pass-field goal inside the 20 — likely with a few penalties sprinkled in.
MORE: Win BIG with SuperDraft! Get a free $10 deposit when you use promo code "TSN"!
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills vs. Jets — OVER 49.5 receiving yards (Piva)
Kincaid has been one of the Bills’ lone bright spots in an otherwise-gloomy 2-4 stretch. In four games over the past month, the rookie has averaged seven catches and 68 yards per contest. With a target share of over 22 percent during that span, he’s basically operating as Buffalo’s second receiver behind Stefon Diggs — much like Kyle Pitts did for Atlanta in his rookie campaign. Kincaid’s the real deal, so expect him to be very busy while Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed battle Diggs and Gabe Davis out wide.
Jayden Reed, WR, Packers vs. Chargers — OVER 35.5 receiving yards (Iyer)
Reed has a terrific matchup in the slot for a second straight week. This time it’s second-year youngster Ja’Sir Taylor trying to stay with the rookie. Reed has emerged as the best all-around inexperienced target for Green Bay, getting the trust of Jordan Love. He also should get the needed target volume, which doesn’t need to be much, to push beyond 40 yards.
Davante Adams, WR, Raiders @ Dolphins — OVER 67.5 receiving yards (Musial)
After five down weeks, Adams got back on track in Week 10, turning 13 targets into six catches for 86 yards against a stout Jets’ coverage unit. With the Raiders priced as double-digit road underdogs, a negative game script should force Aidan O’Connell into throwing at an even higher clip in Week 11, which could translate to Adams seeing double-digit targets. If Adams can haul in at least six receptions for a second straight game, chances are he eclipses his receiving yardage prop.
Tommy DeVito, QB, Giants @ Commanders — UNDER 161.5 passing yards (Brinkerhoff)
Until further notice, we are auto-fading Tommy DeVito. This is like the NFL version of betting Iowa unders in college football and DeVito is the equivalent to the Iowa-Rutgers under. Perhaps my Scarlet Knights alumni card is being taken away as we speak, but regardless, DeVito just can’t throw. He posted a -1 in the box score for his first NFL game. A negative one, meaning we had more yards sitting on the couch watching that atrocity. He had an outlier performance in Vegas with 175 passing yards, something that will hit home for a lot of people that visit Sin City and considering his most recent effort, it’s safe to say that solid showing will remain in Vegas too. He then tossed the ball for 86 yards in Dallas, with 50 of them coming on the final drive. And despite facing a generous Commanders’ pass defense, you’d have to be out of your mind to even think about playing the over here. We will ride the under trend until the wheels fall off and dial 1-800-GAMBLER for those talking themselves into going the other way.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks at Rams — UNDER 64.5 rushing yards (Piva)
Maybe it’s the two years full of injuries piling up on Walker, but the dude just doesn’t look right over the past couple weeks. He has averaged just 2.8 yards per carry and an abysmal 0.3 yards after contact during that span, while also recording just one run longer than 10 yards. KW3 did break off a 64-yard catch-and-run for a TD last week, but we simply can’t trust him to bring the same burst out of the backfield as he demonstrated earlier in the season. And with rookie running mate Zach Charbonnet seeing a season-high 42 snaps and tying a season-high 11 opportunities last week, Pete Carroll can’t fully trust Walker, either.
Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars vs. Titans — OVER 58.5 receiving yards (Iyer)
Another week, another chance for Kirk to dust another slot corner and prove he’s still clearly the No. 1 wideout for Trevor Lawrence. His targets continue to come in bunches as with Zay Jones still not available, he always has the natural way to get open vs. Calvin Ridley, who struggles with physical coverage on the outside. Kirk will primary work on Elijah Molden and should again do quick work of his number well below a century.
Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals @ Texans — OVER 53.5 receiving yards (Musial)
In his eight-catch, 131-yard effort last week, McBride became the first Cardinals TE to eclipse 100-plus receiving yards in a game since 1989. While we don’t expect McBride to hit the century mark this week, another strong receiving game is in the cards against an exploitable Texans’ pass defense, which ranks 23rd in dropback success rate since Week 5 (47.8%).
Christian Watson, WR, Packers vs. Chargers — OVER 36.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)
Our DeVito pick had us calling the helpline for assistance, and now we might have to dial it on ourselves for this one. “Speak it into existence,” they say and that’s exactly what we’re doing here. Watson owns the highest average depth of target (ADOT) for players with at least 30 targets in the NFL this year at 16.7 yards. He’s coming off a game in which he had seven targets last week, a sign that the Packers are trying to get Watson involved. Plus, he’s typically good for one or two deep shots a game in an anemic offense. For the supposed WR1, this is still a low total against the worst pass defense in the league. Watson can easily go over this number with one catch, meaning there will be plenty of chances to find 37 yards in a game that Green Bay will likely be playing from behind in. And if there was ever a time for the second-year receiver to breakout this season, it would on Sunday at Lambeau Field against the Chargers.
