The days are getting shorter and the nights are getting colder, but this is when the NFL starts to heat up after a midseason lull. Last weekend's wild slate of games featured a plethora of compelling storylines that had our eyes glued to the screen like toddlers watching Cocomelon. We expect an even better product during the main slate of games this weekend, with multiple matchups we simply can't miss. Today our expert panel will highlight our favorite SuperDraft over/under prop picks for what should be an awesome Week 10.
The name of the game with prop betting — just like traditional betting, fantasy, and DFS — is value. Every Friday, my colleagues Vinnie Iyer, Nick Musial, Nick Brinkerhoff, and I scour SuperDraft to find you the over/under props that yield the most value and give you the greatest chance of winning.
My colleagues and I then unveil a dozen or so of our favorite SuperDraft player props from the NFL's Sunday slate. The concept for this column is simple: all four of us pick our three favorite over/under bets. We research the matchups, dive into the betting trends, and handpick the props that we deem to be solid value bets. Then we write out our reasoning behind picking each prop.
Along the way, we keep a weekly record of each of our successes and failures, and of course, reveal our updated season standings. Our motivations are two-fold: (1) beat our colleagues, and (2) help you beat the book. The more we win, the more money our readers make!
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Our betting team had two up and two down last week. Take a look at the updated standings after Week 9 of our SN Bets SuperDraft Prop Contest:
| Expert | Week 9 | Overall |
| Sloan Piva | 1-2 | 16-12 |
| Vinnie Iyer | 2-1 | 15-12 |
| Nick Musial | 0-3 | 11-14 |
| Nick Brinkerhoff | 2-1 | 10-17 |
Vinnie has now gone 7-2 over the past two weeks — the man is straight-up sizzling. He and Brinks both went 2-1 last week, while Sloandog Millionaire and Money Muse headed in the opposite direction. After seemingly running away with first place in October, I'm now holding onto the slimmest of leads in our season-long contest. As Chris Martin once bellowed out in a high-pitched whine, "Nobody said it was easy!"
One thing's for certain: our panel of experts is much better than our overall record suggests. So, let's lock in some winners and move back in the right direction as a team. If you're not familiar with SuperDraft, check it out! SD's Fantasy Props feature allows users to win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. The more legs added to the player prop parlay, the larger the potential payout becomes. But as you could probably guess, the longer the odds, the more difficult it gets to nail down a clean sweep. Research is imperative.
That's where we come in. Our panel of experts does the leg work, finds the best value, pitches our favorite props, and lets you handle the rest. You can window-shop our recommendations as you please and bet as few or as many of our prop picks as you see fit. Our lucky number with player prop parlays seems to be two (3X payout), but sometimes we'll put a lower stake on a three-prop parlay (6X) or a lotto-ticket wager on an eight-legger (100X).
Let's get to it. Below we will detail our 12 favorite SuperDraft player props for this weekend's NFL games, with our highest-confidence picks listed first. Good luck, enjoy Week 10, and have a safe and happy weekend!
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NFL Prop Picks Week 10: Our experts' favorite SuperDraft bets
Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers vs. Titans — OVER 51.5 rushing yards (Sloan Piva)
Who would have thunk a few weeks ago that we'd be featuring Rachaad White in this column!? A preseason sleeper of ours, the second-year back looked like a bust — at least on the ground — through the first month and a half of the season. But oh, what a difference a few weeks can make! White has posted scrimmage-yard totals of 99, 109, and most recently 119 yards over the past three weeks.
He's also enjoying the most volume he has seen all season, with a whopping 20 carries and four receptions in last weeks high-scoring bonanza against the Texans. He turned those 20 totes into 73 yards, a number he hit earlier this season in just 17 attempts against the Bears (his second-highest carry count of the season). Tennessee no longer stifles opposing run games — Mike Vrabel's unit has allowed 148.3 rushing yards per game over the Titans' past three games, the fourth-highest average during that span. The Titans will be seeing (and not stopping) White this weekend in Tampa.
MORE WEEK 10 BETTING: ATS | Moneyline
Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars vs. 49ers — OVER 53.5 receiving yards (Vinnie Iyer)
Do you know what 49ers slot cornerback Isiah Oliver has been giving up in fantasy? Points, glorious, points — big plays and yardage. Consider yourself at home with Kirk going off in Jacksonville. You should do anything to play him this week. Kirk should have a star showing with around 100 yards as Trevor Lawrence beams him up early and often in the middle of the field.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions at Chargers — OVER 50.5 receiving yards (Nick Brinkerhoff)
The Lions are well-rested coming off a bye week, and now take their show on the road to Hollywood. That show also includes a new performer on the stage (er, gridiron), tight end LaPorta. The rookie has established himself as the second option in the Lions’ passing game behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, and he has a picture-perfect matchup against a Chargers defense that desperately needs some more juice.
Despite racking up eight sacks last Monday night at MetLife, Los Angeles still surrendered 66 yards to Tyler Conklin. Brandon Staley’s bunch covers about as well as a twin bedsheet on a king-size mattress. The Bolts are allowing the second-most receiving yards per game to tight ends in 2023 (69.0), and LaPorta has gone over this number in two straight games and five of eight on the season. Considering L.A. was shredded by Travis Kelce, Cole Kmet, and then Conklin, it’s only natural that LaPorta etches his name onto that growing list like the next star villain on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons at Cardinals — OVER 55.5 rushing yards (Nick Musial)
Bijan couldn’t come through for us last week, and although he’s been one of the NFL's bigger fantasy disappointments in his rookie campaign, we’re buying low on the shifty back. Arizona has been one of the least efficient run defenses on a down-to-down basis, ranking 29th in rushing EPA (44.4 percent). Robinson might only need 10-plus carries — a number he’s reached in consecutive weeks — to reach 56 yards on the ground.
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Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots vs. Lions — OVER 29.5 receiving yards (Piva)
With Kendrick Bourne hitting the IR recently, Henry immediately launched back into the discussion of Mac Jones' favorite pass-catcher. The veteran tight end enjoyed a 16-percent target share in New England's narrow loss to the Commanders, and he accounted for the Pats' only TD reception on the day.
Hayden Hurst just put 54 yards on the Colts in Week 9, and Indy has now surrendered the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends on the season. We're confident in Henry's ability to easily surpass 30 receiving yards for the fourth time in six home games.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions at Chargers — OVER 83.5 receiving yards (Iyer)
Here comes the Sun God back to Los Angeles, where he grew up and then starred at USC. To Ja’Sir with love: You’ve got a cool first name — almost as cool as Amon-Ra himself — but this cornerback matchup was Taylor-made for arguably the new best slot wide receiver in the game. Brown will leave the Chargers’ pass defense with electric burns in a likely shootout (Editor's note: get that secondary some Calamine lotion, STAT!).
Rashid Shaheed, WR, Saints at Vikings — OVER 32.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)
Everyone has rightfully gushed about Josh Dobbs’ heroics last Sunday, but lost in the shuffle was the potential for big plays that were available against this Vikings defense. KhaDarel Hodge had a field day and nearly hauled in a long touchdown, highlighting Minnesota's many weakness in the secondary. Shaheed should have plenty of opportunities coming out of the slot, since he’s always a big play waiting to happen. Derek Carr loves to heave it up as much as anyone in the NFL, and Shaheed could cash this over with one catch.
Brian Robinson, RB, Commanders at Seahawks — OVER 44.5 rushing yards (Musial)
I'm rich with Robinsons after going from Bijan to Brian, as Washington’s RB1 continues to see a reliable workload (12.6 carries per game, 14th among RBs). His continued volume should put him in a solid position to reach 45-plus rushing yards this weekend. While there’s always a chance Robinson gets scripted out of the game if Washington falls behind by multiple scores, Seattle has consistently struggled to gain positive margins on its opponents as of late. A closely-contested game gives Robinson a very chance to see 15-plus carries, giving him every opportunity to go OVER this projection.
Jared Goff, QB, Lions at Chargers — UNDER 265.5 passing yards (Piva)
Goff has enjoyed another solid season with the Lions — and I'm fine with Vinnie's Amon-Ra St. Brown over — but I just don't see the signal-caller hitting 266 passing yards on the road against this much-improved Chargers defense. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack have come into form at the right time for the Los Angeles, with a combined 5.5 sacks and five QB hits over the past two weeks, and Detroit has taken 2.8 sacks per away game.
The Bolts have also limited four of their past five opponents (and five of their past seven) to UNDER 246 passing yards, while Detroit has finished with away-game passing-yardage totals of 250, 190, 340, and 253 (the 340 was against the Buccaneers, who just made C.J. Stroud look like Joe Montana). On top of all that, David Montgomery has returned from his rib injury, so the Lions' run game will be heavily featured. Pound the under here.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Titans at Buccaneers — OVER 62.5 receiving yards (Iyer)
The Nuk…the Nuk…the Nuk is on fire! Where there’s a Will Levis starting, there’s been a way for Hopkins to look like his younger self, running and producing downfield in both Arizona and Houston. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers’ secondary got destroyed by every Texans wideout of note last week. Hopkins would have a plus matchup vs. Jamel Dean if the latter clears concussion protocol. If Dean remains sidelined, the veteran wideout can also dance past Carlton Davis in coverage enough times to easily break 70 yards.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers vs. Packers — OVER 61.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)
In the three games since Johnson returned to the lineup, he has averaged around 85 yards per game, 6.7 catches, and 9.7 targets. The Steelers' offense can only support one receiver right now, and Johnson enjoys the most volume out of all of them. With his volume through the roof, it can only mean one of two things — protect your ears and turn it down, or dive in and hammer the over. We’ll opt for the latter and bank on Johnson showing the Cheeseheads just how much of a muenster he can be (editor's note: sorry for the cheesy pun).
DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks vs. Commanders — OVER 63.5 receiving yards (Musial)
Metcalf has been one of the unluckiest wide receivers over the past couple of weeks, seeing 28 targets but hauling in just nine receptions. He ranks 99th among WRs in catchable target rate (56.9 percent), as Geno and DK haven’t been in sync like they were in Smith’s 2022-23 breakout campaign. That said, we expect Metcalf to post WR1-type numbers in Week 10, facing a Commanders’ coverage unit that sits 30th in drop-back EPA (0.160). Metcalf owns the ninth-highest air yards share among WRs (39.1 percent), so it may only take two or three receptions for DK to get back on track.
