The NFL is officially back in full swing, with a loaded Sunday slate featuring eight early games, five late afternoon games, and Cowboys-Giants for the nightcap. It should be a great weekend for football fans and an even better opportunity for bettors to capitalize on the SuperDraft player prop market.
Every Friday, my fellow SN Bets experts and I will provide you with our 10-12 favorite over/under props on SuperDraft. We will research the matchups, dive into the betting trends, and handpick the wagers that yield the most value. We will then keep a record of each of our successes and failures and reveal our updated standings every week.
If you're not familiar with SuperDraft, there has never been a better time to jump in. SD's Fantasy Props feature allows users to win 3X the amount wagered if their two-legged player prop parlay hits. The more legs users add to their player prop parlay, the larger the potential payout becomes. But as the long odds indicate, completing a clean sweep is challenging.
That's where we come in. Our panel of experts will do the leg work, pitch our favorite props, and let you do the rest. You can window-shop our recommendations as you please and bet as few or as many of our prop picks as you see fit. Our lucky number with player prop parlays seems to be three (6X payout), but sometimes we'll put a higher stake on a two-prop parlay (3X) or a lotto-ticket wager on an eight-legger (100X).
Let's get to it. Below we will detail our twelve favorite SuperDraft player props for Sunday's NFL games. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy Week 1!
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NFL Prop Picks Week 1: Our experts' favorite SuperDraft bets
Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers vs. Dolphins — OVER 33.5 receiving yards (Sloan Piva)
Ekeler has become one of the best playmaking running backs in the NFL, capable of gashing every defense both on the ground and through the air. But it's his pass-catching game in particular that I'm honed in on this Sunday, as he should be able to best 33 receiving yards by halftime.
Ek averaged 42.5 receiving yards per game in 2022, and he exceeded 33 yards a whopping 12 times, including six of the eight games the Bolts played at SoFi Stadium. One of those games was against Miami, who let Ekeler catch all eight of his targets for 59 yards last December.
The Dolphins ranked among the bottom eight in the NFL in both catches (93) and receiving yards (700) surrendered to RBs last season. That translates to 41.2 yards per game, right around Ekeler's per-game average in each of the past three seasons. I'm all-in on this OVER in Los Angeles this Sunday afternoon.
MORE CHARGERS-DOLPHINS: Betting preview and best bets
Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers @ Vikings — OVER 57.5 receiving yards (Nick Brinkerhoff)
New year, new quarterback, but just because Baker Mayfield serves as the new signal-caller in Tampa doesn’t mean we have to fade Chris Godwin. In fact, we're upgrading him now that he established a strong rapport with No. 6 this summer.
Godwin hauled in four receptions for 30 yards and a touchdown in the Buccaneers' final preseason game. Considering Mayfield’s history of success targeting slot receivers — as well as the fact that Minnesota surrendered the third-most slot yards per game in 2022 — Godwin should have a more productive day than Mike Evans and sail past 57 yards.
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS & FANTASY PROPS: How to play SuperDraft
Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles @ Patriots — OVER 40.5 receiving yards (Nick Musial)
Goedert has become as consistent as it gets at tight end, serving as Jalen Hurts’ go-to option underneath. With the Patriots’ defensive backs likely focused on not letting A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith get past them, don't be surprised to see Philly dink and dunk its way down the field. That would play right into Goedert’s hands, boosting his chances of going OVER 40.5 receiving yards.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants vs. Cowboys — OVER 21.5 receiving yards (Vinnie Iyer)
Barkley was very busy as a receiver in the Giants' two meetings with the Cowboys last season, finishing the regular-season series with 10 targets combined. With some key questions remaining about the G-men's wideout corps, he’s still critical to their passing game, and playing off Darren Waller should only help his numbers.
Barkley will endure some tough sledding in the running game against Micah Parsons and the Cowboys' elite front-seven, but he should get enough dump-offs from Daniel Jones to go well above this total.
MORE GIANTS-COWBOYS: Betting preview and best bets
Derek Carr, QB, Saints vs. Titans — OVER 243.5 passing yards (Piva)
We have Carr pegged for a big bounce-back year, which we expect to start this week against a weak Titans secondary at home. Tennessee surrendered an NFL-high 4,931 passing yards last season — over 290 yards per game. Carr should easily hit 250-plus yards at the Superdome this weekend with the help of his shiny new toys Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Juwan Johnson.
Cole Kmet, TE, Bears vs. Packers — OVER 26.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)
The 2023 Bears will be throwing the ball more, and Kmet stands to benefit from that. After acquiring DJ Moore, Chicago boasts an arsenal that should give Justin Fields plenty of options in the passing game. While Moore is the newcomer, Kmet has been “ol’ reliable.” He has maintained a consistent target share and hit this number in 8-of-10 games down the stretch in 2022. The Bears tight end will ride that wave into a successful 2023 opener against a Packers team that might stumble out of the gate.
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Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons vs. Panthers — UNDER 68.5 rushing yards (Musial)
Will Arthur Smith fully unleash his first-round pick in Week 1? We’re not so sure, as we think Tyler Allgeier will play a bigger role than most pundits and analysts expect. We might look like a fool when Robinson runs wild on the Panthers, but until we get a concrete data point on what to expect from Atlanta’s new RB1, we’re tempering our expectations.
Bryce Young, QB, Panthers @ Falcons — OVER 204.5 passing yards (Iyer)
Cam Newton threw for 422 yards in his Panthers' rookie debut after being picked No. 1 overall a dozen seasons ago. We’re just looking for half of that from Young, who steps into a very comfortable matchup against the Falcons’ pass defense. His receivers are banged up, but he can get there with enough volume of around 30 attempts.
Nico Collins, WR, Texans @ Ravens — OVER 3.5 receptions (Piva)
One of our top sleepers for the 2023 fantasy season, Collins could be in for a breakout campaign of epic proportions. The Texans upgraded at QB in a major way when they picked C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick, and the rookie has already developed chemistry with his new No. 1 receiver.
Considering Brandin Cooks headed northbound to Dallas this offseason, Collins' volume should be similar to what he enjoyed between Weeks 10-13 last season — nine targets per game — before missing the Texan's last five games due to a foot injury. Speaking of foot injuries, Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey had foot surgery last month and will more than likely miss Week 1. Smash this OVER.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles @ Patriots — OVER 40.5 receiving yards (Brinkerhoff)
(Editor's note: Our first double-pick, as both Nicks love Goedert. Sounds like a lock!)
Where is the love for the tight end position? The low lines continue, and that’s especially true for Goedert, who has become a huge piece of the Philadelphia offense. Since Jalen Hurts took over the starting job in 2021, Goedert has put up at least 41 receiving yards in 19-of-27 regular season contests, including 9-of-12 last season.
Goedert may not always see a massive target share, but he tends to be the forgotten man when defenses key in on the Eagles' other explosive options. Expect him to log at least one explosive play with New England likely focused on A.J. Brown. Take the OVER with confidence.
Alec Pierce, WR, Colts vs. Jaguars — OVER 32.5 receiving yards (Musial)
As the Colts’ primary deep threat, it may take only one catch for Pierce to hit his OVER in Week 1. Accuracy remains a valid concern for rookie QB Anthony Richardson, but expect him to attempt a high number of passes in a game that Indianapolis will likely be trailing.
PFF ranked the Jaguars' secondary the sixth worst in the NFL this summer, and top cornerback Tyson Campbell will probably spend most of his time on Colts WR1 Michael Pittman, so don't be surprised if Pierce bests this total by the end of the day.
Jakobi Meyers, Raiders at Broncos — OVER 36.5 receiving yards (Iyer)
Meyers will operate off Davante Adams as an outside option and big slot (upgrading from little slot Hunter Renfrow) in a Raiders offense he and new QB Jimmy Garoppolo know well from their time together in New England.
Adams will likely draw some coverage from Patrick Surtain II outside and the Raiders are still sorting out tight end, so Meyers should be in the mix for six-to-eight targets in what should be a negative game script on the road. That easily sets him up to surpass this mark.
