To borrow the immortal words of Jim Mora, “You think you know, but you don’t know, and you never will.’’ Actually, in the case of free agency, you do eventually know. But contrary to the traditional attempts every offseason to grade signings as soon as they happen, many do think they know, but they don't really know until later.
It’s later now, and some surprises emerged from the free-agent class of 2016. For better and worse, as always. It’s worth repeating that not living all the way up to a monstrous contract doesn’t automatically get you on this list, nor does getting hurt (so don’t look for Robert Griffin III on here).
With that, here are the five worst signings of 2016, and the five best.
Worst free-agent signings
Brock Osweiler, QB, Texans. Can anyone even make a strong case for any other move being the worst? The quarterback Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith added to be the final piece of the contention puzzle (for $37 million guaranteed) got benched in the third-to-last regular-season game. He might have stayed benched for their wild-card game had Tom Savage, his replacement, been healthy. That outshines his awful stats and all the ways he cost a talented, resilient Texans team victories all season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Jets. Rarely has so much attention and so much money been paid with so few results. Fitzpatrick’s free-agent drama with the Jets swallowed up their entire offseason; then, once he got his $12 million for the season, he made the regression to his career-long mediocrity that everybody but the team knew was coming. The lowest-rated starter in the NFL last season — one spot below Osweiler.
Mario Williams, DE, Dolphins. The Bills had released him believing that he was on the downside of his career and had stopped giving effort. They appeared to be right: At 31, in his 11th season, he had 1 1/2 sacks in 13 games for the Dolphins, got benched late in the season and was inactive for the season finale. Not much bang for $16 million over two years (he is expected to be released this week).
Coby Fleener, TE, Saints. After getting $18 million guaranteed from New Orleans, Fleener quickly proved that a) he was not the next Jimmy Graham, and b) whatever chemistry he had with ex-Stanford teammate Andrew Luck in Indianapolis didn’t translate to Drew Brees. It wasn’t so much his pedestrian stats (50 catches, three touchdowns) as his frequent invisibility week after week. Every other receiver there ate, except him.
Chris Ivory, RB, Jaguars. He was a letdown on his own — less than half the yards and touches in an injury-plagued season than in his previous year on the Jets. But he also stands in for the underwhelming performance of the entire Jaguars’ free-agent class, the basis of high expectations that never came close to panning out. Ivory, Malik Jackson, Prince Amukamara, Tashuan Gipson — and three wins.
MORE: Who will the Browns start at QB? Pros, cons for every option
Best free-agent signings
Lorenzo Alexander, LB, Bills. Biggest and best surprise of the ’16 class. From special-teams hero in Washington, Arizona and Oakland — one season as a regular starter on defense — to one of the league leaders in sacks with the Bills with 12 1/2. And he did that for the vet minimum of $885,000, doing what the Dolphins paid 10 times more for ex-Bill Williams to do. Popular, a leader, paid his dues, got rewarded, and he’s back on the market with more value than he’s ever had.
Damon Harrison, DT, Giants. The legendary “Snacks” ended up being the stealth key signing on the Giants’ line and on their defense overall — the guy who made life easier for higher-paid, higher-profile line mates Olivier Vernon and Jason Pierre-Paul. Harrison got $24 million guaranteed, great recognition for someone who does the dirty work few but dedicated film-watchers notice.
Kelechi Osemele, G, Raiders. He got left-tackle money ($24.5 million guaranteed) to leave the Ravens and play a less-heralded position and role, and he played it better than any other guard in the NFL last season. The Raiders, Derek Carr and the running game thrived with him; the Ravens suffered without him. A big reason the Raiders have Super Bowl aspirations.
Alex Mack, C, Falcons. Yes, lots of love here for interior linemen. Mack left the Browns for the Falcons, was brilliant, solidified their line, helped them to the Super Bowl, then played despite breaking the same leg in the playoffs that he had broken two years earlier in Cleveland. At $28.5 million guaranteed, he was the NFL’s highest-paid center, and worth it.
Casey Hayward, CB, Chargers. The Packers and their fans knew it would hurt when he left as a free agent. It hurt a lot. Hayward got just under $7 million guaranteed, stepped in as their main cover corner, led the NFL with seven interceptions, and was one of the few standouts in an injury-decimated season in San Diego. Back in Green Bay, the secondary caved in with injuries; clearly, it could have used him in the NFC title game in Atlanta.