As a crazy Week 9 is put to bed, we look ahead to the upcoming week and serve up early choice bets against the spread. Find out how we line up for Week 10 NFL picks. Early bird gets the worm ... so the saying goes.
MORE: Get the latest NFL odds & betting advice at Sportsbook Review
Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
- Sunday, Nov. 10, at 1 p.m. ET
- FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland
- TV Broadcast: CBS
Shut the front door! The Cleveland Browns are giving 2.5-points to the Buffalo Bills on the NFL odds board? Well, thank you very much… might just have a nibble of that tasty NFL crumpet.
Cleveland Browns may have been transmitting Super Bowl signals in preseason, but the only signal that is coming out of the Dawg Pound in recent weeks is a distress SOS call. The Browns are sinking faster than the Titanic right now; and that’s after entering the so-called soft part of their NFL schedule.
Brandon Allen (no relation to Kyle Allen (or Josh Allen, for that matter)) completed his first NFL start on Sunday, joining a whole slew of high self-regarding teams to heap more misery on the Browns. In the 24-19 home win, the Broncos exposed the Browns’ lack of confidence, cohesion and a clue in full technicolor horror. (In hindsight, OBJ’s custom-made Joker cleats were a fitting allegory of the day).
Pointing to the Browns’ earlier losses this season as a consequence of a tough schedule no longer holds water, surely. If anything, the loss to the struggling Broncos led by an inexperienced backup quarterback is proof positive the Browns were overhyped from the start. No.1 draft pick Mayfield is clueless, head coach Freddie Kitchens is out of his depth, the lauded offensive weapons are MIA and the defense is ineffective.
The Buffalo Bills are 6-2 SU on the season and coming off a win over the hapless Washington Redskins. The jury is out on the Bills in terms of their viability in the playoffs, but what Sean McDermott’s side can be relied upon is consistency in winnable games. Beating teams that they absolutely should.
This is a winnable matchup for the Bills on the road. The Bills defense is no slouch and Josh Allen has shown some positive strides in recent weeks. If Allen continues to keep it tidy on the offense and doesn’t fail his team, the Bills defense can do the rest and ride roughshod over the Browns, who are 0-3 SU and ATS at home this season, which includes a 13.7 losing margin on average and a -14.5 differential versus the spread on average.
NFL pick: Bills +2.5 (-105)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5)
- Sunday, Nov. 10 at 1 p.m. ET
- Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
- TV Broadcast: FOX
The 2015 No.1 draft pick Jameis Winston welcomes his 2019 counterpart Kyler Murray at Raymond James Stadium in Week 10, setting up a scintillating showdown between top NFL prospects in their draft classes. For the hosts, it likely will deliver some preliminary answers to a fast approaching exam question: Is Winston the long-term solution for Tampa Bay?
Jameis Winston is in the final year of his rookie contract and it’s been an up-and-down season for the Bucs with the fourth-year starter at the helm. To the utter frustration of new head coach Bruce Arians, also fondly known as the quarterback whisperer.
Arians earned that pet name ironically in Arizona a few years back when his coaching nous faced a quarterback carousel. One by one his starters hit the dust with injury but, In spite of those extreme challenges, Arians doggedly marched Arizona into the playoffs.
Arians hasn’t transformed Winston. Yet. Well, that’s what the expectation of every beating NFL heart within the Tampa zip code that is rooting for the Buccaneers is, to transform Winston into a model of consistency. Hope springs eternal.
Rebuilding a team around a rookie quarterback is a project and a half. Tampa fans know only too well as they’ve been mired in such a project over the last four years, choosing to put the weight of responsibility for previous failed campaigns on the coaches rather than said quarterback. If this season doesn’t provide any positives on which Arians can build, will Tampa make the difficult decision and return to the drawing board in the 2020 NFL draft?
Arizona is rebuilding under Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury. So far so good. The rookie tandem has just nine NFL career starts and while the Cardinals are merely 3-5-1 SU this season, they’re still better by the numbers (at the moment) than the 2-6 SU Bucs. Most recently, Murray and the Cards took it to the undefeated Niners and gave them something to think about in a 28-25 loss in Thursday Night Football.
Both Winston and Murray have shown a penchant to absolutely light up their offenses when they’re hot. Mistakes are common though in both camps. Given both are coming off shootouts it’s quite likely they might pick up from where each left off in Week 9 though.
This game therefore could be tighter than the NFL odds would suggest. Tampa may well win at home (may/might are the operative conditional words to pay particular attention to), but Arizona can make a fist of it. And that makes the road underdogs the value NFL play here.
NFL pick: Cardinals +4.5 (-107)
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) vs. Tennessee Titans
- Sunday, Nov. 10 at 1 p.m. ET
- Nissan Stadium, Nashville
- TV Broadcast: CBS
Backup Matt Moore served up the win for Kansas City Chiefs over the highly-fancied Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, sending the Big Red into a tizzy at Arrowhead Stadium. So much for being merely a high-school NFL coach.
The win kept the Chiefs abreast of their AFC West rivals in the table, all of which proved to be winners in week 9. Whether Moore gets another start for the Chiefs next Sunday is up in the air, but it appears that Patrick Mahomes is looking to be the likely starter.
What’s most encouraging for Chiefs’ fans is the manner in which the Chiefs defense stepped up in the last few weeks and the way the offense accounted admirably to give Moore his best shot for a win as the fill-in quarterback.
Titans moved on from Marcus Mariota a few weeks back with some success. Tannehill won both his first two starts. Last week, Tannehill and the Titans came up short in a 30-20 loss to the Carolina Panthers to remain in the AFC South basement behind a 4-5 SU mark. Overall, Tannehill is 1-2 SU for the Titans.
Whether Mahomes is slated to make his belated return to the starting line-up for this clash or not, the Chiefs have an adequate backup in Moore, who is more than capable of keeping the Chiefs relevant in 2019. (Ironically, Moore used to be the backup in Miami for Tannehill. Wouldn’t that make for an interesting showdown should it come about?) In any event, everything points to an auspicious trek for the Chiefs to stack wins with a tilt against the Titans in Nashville.
NFL pick: Chiefs -4 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (-11.5)
- Sunday, November 10 at 1:00 PM EST
- Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
- TV Broadcast: FOX
How Dan Quinn’s key card still works in Atlanta is beyond comprehension. Now, this isn’t a dig at the well-respected head coach, but rather a reference to the comatose Atlanta Falcons who are simply not responding to his efforts to resuscitate them.
The sky has fallen in Atlanta with the Falcons practically irrelevant behind a 1-7 SU record. Nothing short of a reboot, some major shakeup or wholesale change, is likely to bring about a resurrection. Heck, it worked for the Los Angeles Chargers didn’t it.
Wait, unless, the Falcons are intentionally invoking a DNR in order to get into the 2020 NFL draft race among the Bengals, Dolphins and Jets….Hmmm… heady thought.
Matt Ryan, who suffered an ankle injury a few weeks back is expected for Week 10’s date with familiar foes New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees, who also suffered an injury earlier this season, has already made his return to much fanfare in Week 8’s win over the Arizona Cardinals.
Tale told, both quarterbacks may be a bit banged up yet and not fully at 100%. However, this is a familiar rivalry that should charge the electric atmosphere at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. With both teams headed in opposite directions in 2019, it’s no surprise to see the Falcons at the huge disadvantage on the NFL odds board.
The Saints are donating a bucket load of points to the Falcons, anywhere from -11.5 or higher depending on your preferred online sportsbook. Tempting though it may be to take the points with Atlanta, it’s worth taking stock of these two sides’ performance against the spread this season. The Saints are 6-2 ATS with a 4.9 winning margin on average while the Falcons are 2-6 ATS with a -10.6 losing margin on average.
To put it simply, Falcons haven’t rewarded their backers in ATS betting markets, so getting on board with them now for Week 10 NFL picks could be pure recklessness. Taking the Saints at -11.5 now before they get bet up, it’s probably the smart bet.
NFL pick: Saints -11.5 (-115)
Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Sunday, Nov. 10, 2019 1 p.m. ET
- Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati
- TV Broadcast: CBS
The AFC North tilt between the Ravens and Bengals surely doesn’t need a whole lot of explanation. Lamar Jackson is the flavour of the week – heck, the month if not the season following the upset over the New England Patriots.
Meanwhile, Andy Dalton is well and truly out of favor in Cincinnati. Zac Taylor benched Dany Andy, offering the long-time starter the clipboard and headset with a view from the side line for this Week 10 clash. Ryan Finley is set to make his first start for Cincy instead.
How Finley fares remains to be seen. It has been a season to remember for backup quarterbacks as Teddy Bridgewater, Kyle Allen, Gardiner Minshew, Mason Rudolph and Brandon Allen have taken the shine off of their team’s starters with varied success. Might Finley enjoy his successful sojourn too.
Asking the backup to defy the NFL odds in what is a total mismatch is too much. He doesn’t exactly have the manpower with which to pull off the feat nor does Zac Taylor’s have the wherewithal. His coaching know-how pales in comparison to John Harbaugh’s, who is probably still a bit giddy after sticking it to Bill Belichick in Sunday Night Football.
NFL pick: Ravens -9.5 (-105)
Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers (-5.5)
- Sunday, Nov. 10 at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Lambeau Field, Green Bay
- TV Broadcast: FOX
Did the Green Bay Packers send out imposters to Santa Clara because they were notably absent in Sunday’s clash with the Los Angeles Chargers? Well, maybe not. But they must have been suffering from jet-lag as they were wholly off form and color.
Matt LaFleur alluded to something of the sort when he admitted they’d arrived too late in the day to get properly ready for their tilt on the west coast. The uncharacteristically lethargic performance on both sides of the ball had Rodgers calling it a slice of humble pie in his press conference. Bosa’s on-field comments after the game weren’t too charitable either and most likely won’t sit well with Rodgers Green Bay.
Whatever it was, it’s likely an outlier. The Packers can’t take anything for granted though not especially a Carolina Panthers side that bounced back in Week 9 with a 30-20 win over the Titans. With Christian McCaffrey in fine form. And with Kyle Allen finding his mojo again.
The hallowed grounds of Lambeau Field are tough to conquer and the Packers will be keen to bounce back in this game. Whether the Packers win or not, one has to consider the Panthers are primed to give them a run for their money.
NFL pick: Panthers +5.5 (-115)