The fantasy football season ending for millions of disappointed owners (bah humbug), but fear not, football fans -- we have 16 prop bets lined up for Week 15 that are guaranteed to keep you interested, engaged, and invested in what should be a wild weekend of December pigskin.
Props are not only fun to follow while watching a game, but they also seem to produce fewer "bad beats" than standard moneyline, spread, and over/under bets. You don't always have to hitch your wagon to an entire team or put your proverbial chips on a certain final score. In the world of props, you can simply bet on one player to produce — or fail to produce — at a certain level.
Every Thursday, we scour BetMGM to pinpoint one potentially lucrative prop for each NFL game of the upcoming slate. It could be a player or team prop that we find the most interesting, most promising, or both. These prop wagers can involve offense, defense, special teams, or general scoring, but they all offer bettors distinct value based on stats and trends.
Last week, we started off sizzling hot — hitting six of our first seven props — but then we hit the skids. All told, we wound up a respectable 8-6 on the week. The highlights: Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott scoring TDs, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow both going UNDER on their yardage projections, and Justin Jefferson clearing his "longest reception" prop by over 17 yards.
We've cashed on 16 solid prop bets in the past two weeks, many of which yielded plus-odds. That's great, but we have our sights set on double-digit greens this weekend so we can go on a holiday shopping spree (Papa needs a new pair of snow tires!).
Here are our favorite Week 15 props for every game of what should be another exciting week of NFL action.
MORE WEEK 15 NFL BETTING: Best bets | Against the Spread | Moneyline
Best NFL prop bets for every Week 15 game
All prop bets are from BetMGM and Caesars.
Seahawks vs. 49ers: Tyler Lockett OVER 64.5 receiving yards (-115 on BetMGM)
The Seahawks have stumbled a bit as of late, even losing their past two home games by six points. However, Pete Carroll's squad always gets up against the Niners, and even though Brock Purdy has played well in his first two games, Seattle clearly benefits from Jimmy Garoppolo's foot injury. When these squads met in Week 2, Lockett hauled in nine-of-11 targets for 107 yards. Don't expect another performance in the triple-digits, but 65 receiving yards seems very doable against a 49ers secondary that has quietly allowed the seventh-most yards to wide receivers this season. Lockett in.
Colts at Vikings: Jonathan Taylor OVER 20.5 rushing attempts (+100 on BetMGM)
That's a high number, but JT seems to be all that Matt Ryan and Jeff Saturday have at this point. He's averaged 21.3 rushing attempts over Indy's past four games, as the Colts' pass protection and aerial attack are as lame as my jokes at kids' birthday parties. The thing is, Minnesota's defense might be even lamer. In the Vikings' past six, they have surrendered an average of 127 ground yards, and when Taylor last squared off against the Vikings as a rookie back in 2020, he turned 26 carries into 101 yards and a TD. We have him projected at 22 totes, but we would not be surprised in the least if he finished with 25.
Browns vs. Ravens: Deshaun Watson OVER 218.5 passing yards (-110 on BetMGM)
Although the Browns fell 23-10 to their division rivals in Cincinnati last weekend, Watson at least looked like he had shaken off most of the rust from Week 13, which marked his first NFL game in two years. All said, Watson completed 26-of-42 passes for 276 yards and a TD -- not bad against a Bengals D that had just held MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes to 223 yards the week before. Baltimore has surrendered a hair under 250 passing yards per game this season, seventh-most in the NFL, so we're in on Watson this week.
Dolphins at Bills: Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 229.5 passing yards (-110 on BetMGM)
Tagovailoa looked cold in 50-degree weather last weekend, and now he has to march into Buffalo during a snowstorm with some key members of his offense dinged up? Yeah, we're all over that UNDER. This has the makings of a truly ugly game, at least for the South Beachers. Tagovailoa managed just 186 passing yards when the Bills faced the 'Phins in Miami back in Week 3, and his career average across four tilts with the divisional foes is 191 yards. Josh Allen will show Tua who the real class of the AFC East is this weekend.
WEEK 15 DFS: Best stacks | Best values
Eagles at Bears: Jalen Hurts to score a TD (+100 on Caesars)
I had to venture over to Caesars for this one, as BetMGM didn't have "anytime TD scorer" props posted. We've been raking it in on Hurts' passing TD props all season, as the MVP frontrunner has finished eight different games with at least two TD tosses. However, Chicago has been surprisingly effective at keeping pass-catchers out of the end zone, giving up just 16 passing TDs (ninth fewest). Where the Chi has struggled around the end zone is on the ground, allowing a league-high 21 rushing TDs. Five of those 21 scores came on QB sneaks, the second-most in the NFL. That's music to our ears considering Hurts has 10 rushing TDs of his own, including four in the past five weeks and one in each of Philly's past two games.
WEEK 15 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel
Falcons at Saints: Rashaan Evans OVER 10.5 tackles + assists (+100 on BetMGM)
Evans has been one of the best ball stoppers this season, recording 134 combined tackles for a Falcons' defense that spends more time on the field than all but five teams. With Atlanta enjoying the Week 14 bye to rest up for the home stretch, expect the fifth-year linebacker to come out firing on all cylinders against a run-heavy Saints team. Evans will be flying around the field enough to finish with 11 combined stops for the eighth time this season.
Lions at Jets: Detroit OVER 21.5 points (-110 on Caesars)
No player props listed for this one as of publication, so we'll go with the team we picked in our weekly best bets column to hand the Jets their fourth loss in five games. Ben Johnson's Detroit offense ranks fourth in total yards and fifth in scoring, Jamaal Williams leads the league in rushing TDs, and the Lions' stable of wide receivers is finally healthy. Even if the weather is ugly, expect Detroit to sail over 21 points for the sixth consecutive week.
Panthers vs. Steelers: Sam Darnold UNDER 192.5 passing + rushing yards (-110 on BetMGM)
We get that these aren't our parents' (or grandparents') Steelers, but this also isn't Cam Newton's Panthers. Darnold has operated a vanilla offense since taking over the starting job in Week 12, completing just 25-of-44 passes for 284 yards across two games. He's added 33 yards with his legs, but that's across just seven carries with 26 coming on one blown defensive play. Between Darnold averaging just 158.5 passing and rushing yards per game and Pittsburgh allowing just 271 total passing yards over its past two games, we're banking on the UNDER here.
Cowboys at Jaguars: Dallas to score more TDs (-205 on Caesars)
Sadly, this one has no player props listed just yet. That sucks because we were going to hammer the OVER for Tony Pollard's rushing yards and Dak Prescott's TDs. Alas, we'll have to settle for the Cowboys finding the end zone more times than the Jaguars in what we will consider our Sloan-cold lock of the week. Dallas has averaged 3.3 TDs per game this season (third most) and five TDs per game over its past three contests (second most). Jacksonville averages 2.5 on the year and 2.7 across its past three. The Cowboys also have a vastly superior defense, ranking third in points allowed while the Jags rank 15th. I don't mind betting on a layup — a win is a win, even if the odds are heavily juiced. It's worth it, just like Zeke Elliott jumping in the Salvation Army kettle.
Chiefs at Texans: Kansas City UNDER 30 points (+129 on Caesars)
I have MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs winning this game with ease, but I don't envision Kansas City needing 30 points to cruise to victory. We also know that Houston has been surprisingly stout against passing games this season, allowing the fewest passing TDs in the NFL (11). On average, the Texans lose by a score of 24-16, give or take some decimals. We have this one projected at 27-13. If some player props open up, we'll likely take the OVER on a Jerick McKinnon rushing plus receiving yards because as good as Houston has been against the pass, they've been equally as bad against the run.
Cardinals at Broncos: Arizona OVER 17.5 points (-105 on Caesars)
Look, we get it: Kyler Murray tore his ACL and he's out for the season, but Colt McCoy is a decent backup with plenty of solid playmakers around him. Expect a big game from James Conner, who continues to surprise us as the season goes on. DeAndre Hopkins always makes big plays when he's needed the most, and Marquise Brown should be able to break free against Denver's slot corners (one of the only weaknesses in Ejiro Evero's unit). Three of the Broncos' past four opponents have reached 22 points, so McCoy and the Cards should be able to hit 19.
Patriots at Raiders: New England wins by 1-6 points (+320 on BetMGM)
As you can probably guess, we've reached the dreaded "no player prop" section of the weekly slate. Luckily for us, we like to get creative. BetMGM often features fun "winning margin" wagers that boost potential payouts considerably. The second iteration of McDaniels vs. Belichick — the student against the master — should make for some entertaining television. When these long-time colleagues last squared off in Denver back in 2010, McDaniels' Broncos prevailed and the young first-time head coach fist-pumped his way around the stadium like an amateur wrestler celebrating his first big win. Something tells us Belichick hasn't forgotten that evening, and he'll have his Pats defense ready to rock Derek Carr and the shaky Raiders offense. If anyone can stop Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams, it's New England. Don't bet on a blowout, and definitely don't bet on Bill taking a Vegas victory lap.
Titans at Chargers: Derrick Henry OVER 100.5 rushing yards (-115 on BetMGM)
King Henry returned to his dominant form last week against Jacksonville, netting 121 ground yards on a sizzling 7.1 yards per carry. This bounce-back effort was a sigh of relief for Titans fans, who were understandably concerned about Henry's 68 combined rushing yards over the previous two weeks. Expect an embarrassment of riches against the Chargers, who have allowed more ground yards than all but one squad this season. The King should easily clear 100 yards for the seventh time this year.
Buccaneers at Bengals: Tom Brady UNDER 275.5 passing yards (-120 on BetMGM)
We can finally say, once and for all, that Brady is over the hill. The combination of a banged-up and depleted nucleus of skill players in Tampa, a miserable head coach in Todd Bowles, and a sharp decline in arm strength and accuracy has made Brady look like an old, washed-up duck. I'm not touching a Bucs cover or a Brady OVER with a 10-foot pole, just like I didn't touch FTX after TB12 ran ad campaigns for it. Hang 'em up, Tommy — nobody wants to see a sad GOAT struggling up and down the field.
Giants at Commanders: New York OVER 19 points (+106 on Caesars)
After starting his head coaching career 6-1, Brian Daboll and the Giants have hit the skids. They have one win over their past six games and have gone 0-2-1 against divisional rivals in the past three weekends. However, we like this matchup with Washington and love that we're getting plus-odds on an alternate line of 20 points. The G-men have reached 20 in each of the past three weekends, including against these Commanders in Week 13 and against the stout defenses of the Cowboys and Eagles in Weeks 12 and 14. It might not be pretty, but 20 points against the Commanders in a prime-time game seems very doable.
Packers vs. Rams: Green Bay wins by 1-6 points (+300 on Caesars)
With the Packers favored by seven points, we just know something funky is going to happen on Monday Night Football. Hell, the last time we saw these Rams, they slept-walked through three-plus quarters before Baker Mayfield came out of nowhere and led them on a 98-yard game-winning drive. Fool me once, NFL. We've discussed all season that weird stuff happens on Sunday and Monday Night Football, and while we don't expect the Rams to pull off another improbable upset win, we expect them to keep it close enough to piss off the sheep wagering on Aaron Rodgers -7.
