Best NFL prop bets for every Week 14 game: Over/unders for Josh Allen, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Hurts, more

The NFL playoff race has started to heat up, just as the weather outside has started to cool down. It's the most wonderful time of the year when every game seems to have meaning. It's also a great time to bet on player and game props. With postseason berths and looming offseason contracts on the line, talent typically shines at this point of the season. So, let's dive into the prop market and highlight our favorite player and game props for every contest in the Week 14 NFL slate. 

Props are not only fun to follow while watching a game, but they also seem to produce fewer "bad beats" than standard moneyline, spread, and over/under bets. You don't always have to hitch your wagon to an entire team or put your proverbial chips on a certain final score. In the world of props, you can simply bet on one player to produce — or fail to produce — at a certain level. 

Every Thursday, we scour BetMGM to pinpoint one potentially lucrative prop for each NFL game of the upcoming slate. It could be a player or team prop that we find the most interesting, most promising, or both. These prop wagers can involve offense, defense, special teams, or general scoring, but they all offer bettors distinct value based on stats and trends.

We crushed it last week, hitting on a plethora of different props. Take a look at some of the highlights:

That's eight solid hits, three of which had plus odds. We missed a ninth at +375 by one stinking point, as we picked the Browns to beat the Texans by 7-12 points. Cleveland ultimately won by 13. Go figure!

Let’s keep improving upon our weekly list of hits and make some much-needed moolah for the holiday season. Here's our favorite Week 14 props for every game of what should be another exciting week of NFL action.

MORE WEEK 14 NFL BETTING: Best bets | Against the Spread | Moneyline

Best NFL prop bets for every Week 14 game

All prop bets are from BetMGM unless otherwise noted.

Raiders at Rams: Derek Carr OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-115)

In my best bets column on Wednesday, I picked Davante Adams' OVER 89.5 receiving yards. I love that pick, too, but I wanted to select something different for this list. Carr has picked it up in a major way over the past month, and he has Vegas believing it can make the playoffs when that seemed like an impossibility in early November. He has thrown for at least two TDs in five straight games and in nine games overall this season, and now he gets a banged-up Rams squad without Aaron Donald (ankle). Don't expect Josh Jacobs to get 25 carries in a short week, either, as he's banged up, too. Carr might have two passing TDs by halftime. 

Bills vs. Jets: Josh Allen UNDER 253.5 passing yards (-120)

Even though Allen's elbow appears to be fine, I don't think he's been all that great since the start of the second half of the 2022 season. Buffalo has actually started to lean on its running backs a little more to keep defenses honest and protect Allen from making costly mistakes. Robert Saleh has this New York defense playing inspired football, surrendering the sixth-fewest passing yards this season. Allen finished with 205 passing yards and two picks when these teams met earlier this season, so I think Sauce Gardner and company can keep him below 256 this weekend. 

Bengals vs. Browns: Joe Burrow UNDER 278.5 passing yards (-115)

I'm fading Burrow this week even with Ja'Marr Chase back to full health and Joe Mixon (concussion) expected to suit up. Cleveland has surrendered an average of under 200 passing yards per game over its past six contests, and Burrow managed just 232 passing yards when these squads last met in Week 8. The Bengals will likely win this game, but I don't think it will be by the touchdown they are favored by — and I definitely don't think Joey B sniffs 280 passing yards. 

Cowboys vs. Texans: Tony Pollard (-150) and/or Ezekiel Elliott (-125) to score a single TD (BetMGM)

Allow us to introduce our fish-in-a-barrel player props for the week. Pollard and Elliott have arguably both put up Pro Bowl-caliber seasons, with Pollard electrifying with long runs between the 20s and Elliott lighting it up on short-yardage downs and near the goal line. They each have eight rushing TDs, and Pollard has two receiving TDs, as well. How can we not love our odds of at least one of these guys finding pay dirt? The Texans have allowed 15 rushing TDs (fifth most in the NFL), while actually defending the pass remarkably well. Let's get these 'Boys back in that Salvation Army kettle! 

WEEK 14 DFS: Best stacks | Best values

Vikings at Lions: Justin Jefferson longest reception OVER 29.5 yards (-110)

This game is going to be an aerial show, with both teams healthy and oddsmakers projecting the total at 52 points (that's a lot for this season, believe me). The Lions have surrendered the sixth-most receiving yards this year, and they give up the second-most yards per pass attempt. Jefferson had a rare dud against Detroit earlier in the season, so here's betting he'll bounce back against the Lions this week. 

WEEK 14 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel

Titans vs. Jaguars: Derrick Henry to score and Titans to win (-200)

King Henry to score is a juiced-up -275, so we're turning this into a mini-parlay and adding the caveat that Tennessee must also win. Against a banged-up Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne Jr., I like the Titans D to hold court at home while Ryan Tannehill and Henry do just enough on offense. It's still a heavy vig, but who cares when both legs have such good chances of hitting? Jacksonville has allowed an average of 137.8 rushing yards over its past six games and surrendered exactly one rushing TD per game on the season. Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift each found the end zone against the Jags last week, and Henry should absolutely break the plane for his 11th of the season this Sunday. 

Eagles at Giants: Jalen Hurts OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-105) or A.J. Brown OVER 5.5 receptions (+115)

I'll be doubling down on Hurts OVER 1.5 TDs. The man is on an MVP tour and has yet to steer me wrong on a prop this season. I'll also be wagering on Brown's catch count after he looked spectacular against his old team last week. In the home stretch of the season, you usually can't go wrong betting on the cream of the skill-position crop. The Giants have surrendered at least 246 receiving yards in three of their past four games, and they have allowed 24 first downs per game over the past month. With both squads amped up to get the best possible playoff positioning, expect Hurts to look Brown's way early and often. 

Steelers vs. Ravens: Kenny Pickett OVER 0.5 interceptions (+100)

I really want to believe in Pickett. I thought for sure he'd break out against the lowly Falcons secondary last weekend, but he keeps letting me down. We could just as confidently wager on the rookie passing for UNDER 1.5 touchdowns (-210), as he has yet to throw two TDs in a game in his young career, but at least one pick against rival Baltimore seems like great value at +100. He has eight interceptions in eight starts, and while he hasn't thrown one since Week 8, it sure seems like he's due for a mistake. 

Chiefs at Broncos: Patrick Mahomes UNDER 2.5 passing TDs (-225)

Mahomes has tossed just one TD in each of Kansas City's past two games, hitting the UNDER for us both times. He has actually been held to two or fewer TDs in six of the Chiefs' 12 games. Throughout his career, he has averaged just 1.3 TDs against the division-rival Broncos, who currently lead the NFL in fewest passing TDs surrendered (nine in 12 games). The juice is worth the squeeze.

Buccaneers at 49ers: Tampa Bay +3.5 and UNDER 40.5 total points (+200)

I picked the Bucs to beat the Brock Purdy-led Niners, but I don't think it's going to be a tremendously high-scoring game. Tom Brady has relied a lot on his defense to keep the Bucs in games, leaving the door open for him to flip the switch late. San Francisco has plenty of playmakers to compete without Jimmy Garoppolo (foot), but I think Purdy will come crashing back down to Earth against a motivated Tampa squad trying to hold onto the NFC South lead. We're taking this BetMGM parlay opportunity that slightly raises the total from 37.5 to 40.5 but gives us plus odds.

Seahawks vs. Panthers: Seattle wins and OVER 31.5 total points (-135)

Carolina is a dumpster fire, even after dismissing Baker Mayfield. Sam Darnold is not this squad's savior, and the Panthers will not have much luck against a tough, underrated Seahawks defense. Geno Smith has revitalized his career in Seattle and should find plenty of success against a Carolina defense that is basically below-average across the board. We'll gladly take this BetMGM parlay opportunity that feels like a freebie on the total. We just need Seattle to pull off the win. 

Dolphins at Chargers: Miami OVER 27 total points (-148 on Caesars)

The Chargers have the third-worst scoring defense in the NFL (25.8 points per game allowed), and they have surrendered an average of 27 points over their past three games. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have the eighth-best scoring offense in the league (24.8 ppg) and have scored a whopping 28.7 per game over their past three (fifth best). Book it and enjoy the fireworks. 

Cardinals vs. Patriots: Arizona wins and OVER 40.5 total points (+230)

The UNDER always seems to hit in prime-time games, but lately, it hasn't been as automatic as earlier in the season. Although New England has been strong defensively, the OVER has actually gone 4-2 when the Pats are underdogs this season (and 3-1 when they are away underdogs). With Kyler Murray and the Cards getting the extra bye week to prep for this nationally televised game, we expect some highlight-reel plays from him, DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, and James Conner. Hey, Mac Jones hasn't been half-bad on the road, either -- the second-year QB led New England to 33 points in Minneapolis on Turkey Day -- and Arizona has surrendered the second-most points in the NFL this season. The Cardinals should pull off the win, but it won't be all that pretty defensively, which is why we're taking this special BetMGM parlay.