It's the season of giving, but we've been giving out NFL best bet recommendations that have put money in readers' pockets all year. Santa's sleigh will need a couple of extra reindeer if we keep making it rain on the sportsbooks! Let's keep that winning spirit going, and highlight our favorite Week 14 spread, moneyline, over/under, and prop wagers.
Every Wednesday, we meticulously review the betting offerings on BetMGM like my daughter inspects her food to ensure no vegetables were snuck in. We find the best bets for the upcoming slate of NFL games, typically selecting eight-to-10 wagers that strike us as both interesting and most likely to win you some cash. We analyze the stats, betting trends, and sharp betting reports to offer you the best advice and give you the greatest odds of achieving weekly betting success.
Last week was another "W" for us. We nailed our top pick against the spread, the Browns -8 over the Texans. Our moneyline picks went undefeated, highlighted by the Vikings -155 over the Jets and the Steelers -110 over the Falcons. We also cruised to the OVER (51) in the Jaguars-Lions game and easily cashed on Jakobi Meyers' UNDER 50.5 receiving yards (-115). All told, our best bets yielded five hits, three misses, and one push. A .626 winning percentage — we'll take it!
We'll continue to expect even more from ourselves and aim to get you bigger returns on your NFL investments. So, let's get right back into it and confidently roll into the weekend like Tom Brady strutting into Levi's Stadium to face Brock Purdy. Here are our best bets for Week 14 of the NFL season.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
Best NFL Bets Week 14: Against the spread
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM.
Buccaneers (+3.5) at 49ers
We don't know how he does it, but 45-year-old Tom Brady continues to step up late in games to pull off victories. It helps, of course, that he has a fantastic defense with studs at every level. It also helps that rookie running back Rachaad White seems to be coming into his own with increased usage over the past few weeks. With Jimmy Garoppolo out indefinitely due to a broken foot, we love the GOAT's chances to bag Tampa's fourth win in five games. San Francisco still has plenty of weapons for replacement QB Brock Purdy — and the Niners defense is as solid as it gets — but we can't pass up Brady and the points against his hometown team, especially against a backup QB who has thrown 46 career NFL passes.
NFL WEEK 14 PICKS: Against the spread | Moneyline
Bengals (-5.5) vs. Browns
The Bengals have quietly been one of the hottest teams in the NFL over the past month, winning four straight games, including massive victories over the Chiefs and Titans. Even Cincy's losses have left reasons for optimism — three of the Bengals' four Ls were by three or fewer points. Deshaun Watson looked like garbage last week, clearly rusty from not playing competitive NFL football for two years. It will take him some time to get back into the swing of things, and we don't expect him to figure it out soon enough to outduel Joe Burrow with all his weapons firing on all cylinders. Cincinnati should have Joe Mixon (concussion) and Ja'Marr Chase back on the field together for the first time since Week 7, too. This one won't get super ugly, but we feel safe betting on Burrow to win by a TD. Cleveland has surrendered the sixth-most points in the league and allowed Cincy to put up 32 points and 440 total yards when these squads met on Halloween.
Bills (-10) vs. Jets
Can we stop talking about Josh Allen's elbow yet? The Pro Bowl QB seems just fine, and while he has thrown an abnormal number of red-zone interceptions, we can't help but think Buffalo should take care of business at home against a young Jets squad. The last two poor passing offenses the Bills faced, New England and Cleveland, have lost to Buffalo by an average of 11 points. The Mike White hype was fun while it lasted, but the second-year QB came crashing back down to Earth in Minneapolis last weekend. If a bad Vikings pass defense can make White throw multiple interceptions and log a 59.8 QB rating, just imagine what a Bills D ranked fourth in scoring and 10th in yardage can do to him.
MORE NFL WEEK 14: Power Rankings
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 14
Vikings (+105) at Lions
We rolled with the Vikings last week over the Jets, and we're doubling down by picking the Purple in Motown this weekend. Dan Campbell's squad has won four of its past five games, with the only loss in that stretch coming to Buffalo by a field goal, but the fun stops here. Kirk Cousins is 8-2 lifetime against the Lions, and both Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook are bad, bad men. Oh, and don't forget Minnesota acquired stud tight end T.J. Hockenson from Detroit via trade earlier in the season. The Lions can move the ball with their vast array of ever-growing playmakers, but the 10-2 Vikes have way too many offensive weapons to suddenly lose to a five-win Lions squad.
Ravens (+105) at Steelers
This was the easiest moneyline pick of the week. Ravens QB Tyler Huntley looked great last week in relief of injured star Lamar Jackson (knee), connecting on 27-of-32 passes for 187 yards and adding 41 rushing yards and a TD in a gritty 10-9 win over Denver. Head coach John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman clearly have Huntley prepared at all times — he's the backup to the best mobile QB in the history of the game, after all — so there's no doubt in my mind the third-year signal-caller can exploit a beatable Steelers secondary this weekend. Against rookie Kenny Pickett, who has failed to reach 200 yards in six of nine career starts and is still yet to throw two TDs in a game, we think Roquan Smith and this improved Ravens D will feast.
Seahawks (-190) vs. Panthers
The most underrated offensive player in the NFL this season is Geno Smith, who very quietly ranks fourth in passing TDs (22) and eighth in passing yards per game (264.1). Letting go of Russell Wilson might have been the best thing to ever happen to these Seahawks, who continue to thrive thanks to a strong nucleus of skill players. Even if Kenneth Walker III sits out this weekend because of his 'jammed' ankle, we still like Seattle better than Carolina on both sides of the ball. The Seahawks are looking ahead at the playoff race, while the Panthers are looking ahead to the 2023 NFL Draft.
Best NFL over/under bets Week 14
Dolphins at Chargers: OVER 53.5 (-110)
This game has been sent from the heavens to please all fans of offensive football. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (ankle) should be all systems go, and Bolts QB Justin Herbert might have stud receiver tandem Keenan Allen and Mike Williams (ankle) both in action together. The Chargers will need all the aerial support they can get, as Miami receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have been two of the most electric playmakers in the NFL this season. Miami has surrendered 27 or more points in three of its past five games and has given up the eighth-most points in the NFL across the season. Los Angeles has allowed 27 points per game over its past three and ranks 30th in overall scoring defense. Go OVER and get the popcorn ready.
Patriots at Cardinals: UNDER 43.5 (-110)
No popcorn needed for this affair. In fact, you may need a cup of espresso instead. New England's here-and-there success this season has been mostly attributed to defense and the run game. Arizona, meanwhile, has been banged-up and inconsistent all season. Belichick's defense will prioritize the containment of elite Cardinals' receiver DeAndre Hopkins and put a spy on Kyler Murray, forcing James Conner and Marquise Brown to beat the Pats. While I expect Arizona to indeed pull off the home victory on Monday Night Football, I also expect it to be yet another prime-time UNDER to add to the season-long tally.
Best NFL player prop bet Week 14
Raiders at Rams: Davante Adams OVER 89.5 receiving yards (-115)
One thing Raiders coach Josh McDaniels and QB Derek Carr have figured out this season is that targeting Adams early and often tends to produce favorable results. And, boy, have the targets been there over the past five weeks. With tight end Darren Waller (hamstring) and slot receiver Hunter Renfrow (oblique) both injured, Carr has looked Adams' way a whopping 67 times over the Raiders' past five games. That has produced a per-game average of 8.2 catches, 132.8 yards, and 1.4 TDs. L.A. has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to wideouts this season and the third-most total air yards over the past three weeks. Jalen Ramsey and this secondary are either no longer elite or no longer motivated. Fire up Adams and enjoy the show.
