It can't be overstated how disastrous the start to the 2023 season was for the Bengals. Cincinnati came into the year fresh off a stinging defeat in the AFC championship with fresh hopes of that elusive first Super Bowl win.
A preseason calf injury to Joe Burrow hampered the newly minted highest-paid quarterback in the NFL, and it showed, as he and the Bengals got off to a dismal 1-3 start to the year, punctuated by a crushing 27-3 loss to the Titans, all while the Ravens, Steelers and Browns raced ahead in the standings.
The Bengals appeared to right the ship in Week 5. Cincinnati thumped the Cardinals, kicking off a four-game winning streak that featured victories against Super Bowl contenders in the 49ers and the Bills. All of a sudden, the Bengals appeared to be the feared team capable of going on another deep postseason run.
Hope got a little derailed on Sunday. The Bengals stumbled at home against a surging Texans team, falling 30-27 to drop to 5-4. On face value, the loss doesn't seem like the end of the world. Houston is much better than expected — now also at 5-4 — and at some point, Cincinnati was going to lose another game.
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The problem for Cincinnati, however, is that it was one of the few games left on the schedule where the Bengals appeared to be comfortable favorites, and it was yet another loss to an AFC team in playoff contention that could come back to bite the Bengals in a tiebreaking scenario.
That tough schedule starts in Week 11. On "Thursday Night Football," the Bengals will face arguably their toughest test of the season when they hit the road to face the Ravens, who are fresh off their own stinging defeat to the Browns, and are looking to re-assert themselves in the AFC North race. It's a long season, but as outcomes from Sporting News' projection model can indicate, the results of Thursday's game could go a long way toward deciding the season for the Bengals.
Bengals playoff chances 2023
Before getting to the model, let's take a look at where the Bengals sit in the standings entering Week 11. First, in the AFC North:
| Rank | Team | Record | Division | Conference |
| 1 | Ravens | 7-3 | 2-2 | 4-3 |
| 2 | Steelers | 6-3 | 2-0 | 4-2 |
| 3 | Browns | 6-3 | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| 4 | Bengals | 5-4 | 0-2 | 1-4 |
And in the AFC wild-card race:
| Rank | Team | Record | Division | Conference |
| 1 | Steelers | 6-3 | 2-0 (North) | 4-2 |
| 2 | Browns | 6-3 | 2-2 (North) | 4-2 |
| 3 | Texans | 5-4 | 1-1 (South) | 3-2 |
| 4 | Bengals | 5-4 | 0-2 (North) | 1-4 |
| 5 | Colts | 5-5 | 2-2 (South) | 4-3 |
| 6 | Bills | 5-5 | 1-2 (East) | 2-5 |
| 7 | Raiders | 5-5 | 1-1 (West) | 3-3 |
The Bengals' slow start both in the AFC North and in the conference is significant. Divisional records are the first that apply for teams within the same division (e.g., the Bengals and Steelers or Browns) after head-to-head matchups. For non-divisional teams, head-to-head goes first, then record against conference opponents. The Bengals have so far lost to the Browns and Texans, with a win against the Bills. They'll have a chance to face the Steelers twice, the Browns again and the Colts once.
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But at this point, the conference record and the head-to-head losses do the Bengals no favors if they are competing with Cleveland and Houston for playoff spots toward the end of the season.
The model is overall giving the Bengals a bit of a coin toss for making the postseason. They have the worst odds to win the division, and the eighth-best odds to make the playoffs in general, which puts them in the outside-looking-in.
| Team | Current record | Playoff odds |
| Chiefs* | 7-2 | 99.4% |
| Dolphins* | 6-3 | 92.6% |
| Ravens* | 7-3 | 92.1% |
| Jaguars* | 7-3 | 86.1% |
| Texans | 5-4 | 64.9% |
| Browns | 6-3 | 63.3% |
| Steelers | 6-3 | 54.3% |
| Bengals | 5-4 | 46.4% |
| Chargers | 4-5 | 31.8% |
| Bills | 5-5 | 28.9% |
| Colts | 5-5 | 19.8% |
* - Denotes division favorite
The model clearly sees a divide right now between the teams likely to make the playoffs and those unlikely. Even following the change at quarterback in Cleveland, for which the model adjusts, the Browns are still poised as the second-most likely AFC North team to make it into the postseason.
MORE: Who is the Browns' new starting QB?
Looking just at the AFC North playoff picture, which also is key for the wild-card race, the Bengals are seen to be close behind the rest of the field.
| Team | xW-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | No. 1 Seed% | Conf% | SB% |
| Ravens | 12-5 | 59.2% | 33.0% | 92.1% | 9.4% | 17.1% | 8.9% |
| Browns | 10-7 | 16.3% | 47.0% | 63.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Steelers | 10-7 | 14.1% | 40.2% | 54.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Bengals | 10-7 | 10.5% | 35.9% | 46.4% | 0.8% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
But Thursday's game will have a major impact on how the odds shake up. Using the model, we can look at what happens to the odds if the Bengals win and if the Ravens win (though it does not account for margin of victory, which factors into assessing the teams down the stretch of the season.
Here's how each result would impact the Bengals:
| xW-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | No. 1 Seed% | Conf% | SB% | |
| Lose vs. Ravens | 9-8 | 1.8% | 34% | 35.9% | 0.1% | 3% | 1.6% |
| Win vs. Ravens | 10-7 | 25.9% | 38.6% | 64.5% | 2% | 6% | 2.9% |
If the Ravens win, you might as well put a bow on the Bengals' chances of making it three division titles in a row. Their odds of winning the AFC North would dip all the way to 1.8 percent, meaning a near-miracle would need to happen to catch Baltimore. It does take a knock on their overall playoff chances, down from 46.4 percent to 35.9 percent, but that still keeps Cincinnati at eighth in the overall playoff race.
But beat Baltimore, and all of a sudden, the Bengals are not just right back in the thick of the race, but everyone else is, too. The AFC North playoff picture starts to get really interesting, with the Bengals suddenly jumping all the way up to having the second-best AFC North odds behind only Baltimore. The Browns' chances would also jump, as would the Steelers'.
The Bengals would go from being the No. 8 team in the AFC field to the No. 5 team as the most likely wild card, which both shows how important winning the game can be as well as how tight the playoff field is overall.
| If Bengals win | xW-L | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | No. 1 Seed% | Conf% | SB% |
| Ravens | 11-6 | 32.5% | 50.1% | 82.6% | 2% | 13.2% | 6.9% |
| Bengals | 10-7 | 25.9% | 38.6% | 64.5% | 2% | 6% | 2.9% |
| Browns | 10-7 | 22.6% | 39.1% | 61.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Steelers | 10-7 | 19.1% | 33.1% | 52.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
Bengals remaining schedule
The reason the Texans' loss was so important to the Bengals, beyond just the AFC record, is the fact that easy wins just aren't left on the schedule the rest of the season. Cincinnati still has two games left against the Steelers, another left with the Browns and road games against the Jaguars and Chiefs.
Here's a look at the remainder of their season, with the odds of the Bengals winning each game.
| Week | Opponent | Bengals win odds |
| 11 | at Ravens | 33.5% |
| 12 | vs. Steelers | 77.5% |
| 13 | at Jaguars | 51% |
| 14 | vs. Colts | 87.2% |
| 15 | vs. Vikings | 71.8% |
| 16 | at Steelers | 67.6% |
| 17 | at Chiefs | 33.9% |
| 18 | vs. Browns | 74.8% |
If everything goes as predicted, that would be a 6-2 record the rest of the way, which would put Cincinnati at 11-6. In a crowded AFC playoff picture with plenty of teams beating up on each other, that almost certainly would put the Bengals in the playoffs.
But that would assume winning a virtual toss-up against Jacksonville. That would assume sweeping the Steelers. That would assume beating a Browns team against which the Bengals have struggled in recent years. That also means avoiding potential trap games against the surprising Colts and Joshua Dobbs-led Vikings. That's a lot to go right for the Bengals.
MORE: Will the Bills make the playoffs in crowded AFC picture?
Of course, anything can happen. Last year, many wrote off the Bengals after they started the year 4-4, including a crushing blowout loss to the Browns on Halloween. Cincinnati won every remaining game on the schedule, including victories against the Steelers, Chiefs, Browns, Tom Brady-led Buccaneers and Ravens.
So if Cincinnati loses on Thursday, don't count the Bengals out just yet. But don't be surprised if they miss the playoffs for the first time in three years, either.
