Cynthia Frelund is the NFL Network's analytical guru who recently used the NFL Media's simulator to project win totals for all 32 teams for the 2024 NFL season. Despite all the negative talk you may hear, the Atlanta Falcons are one of the top teams in the NFC in this simulation, finishing on the cusp of a ten-win season with a projected 9.9 wins.
I know we've talked a lot about the quarterback room in Atlanta, but I want to remind everyone that running back Bijan Robinson just finished 10th in the NFL with 1,463 scrimmage yards as a rookie. Just isolating rushing yards, my early projections show the second-year pro tops 1,100 in 55 percent of simulations. Take note, fantasy fiends! As for the schedule, the start is hard, with home games against Pittsburgh and Kansas City sandwiched around a trip to Philadelphia. My biggest concern with the Falcons -- not only for those three games but the season as a whole -- is their pass rush. That could be a serious limiting factor for this team.
While most will pay more attention to the passing game this off-season, Frelund brings up an aspect of the Falcons offense that has somehow become under the radar with all the quarterback talk: Atlanta has all the makings to field an elite running game.
Last season, the Falcons ran into loaded boxes (7+ defenders) 74% of the time in 2023, good for eighth in the NFL, according to Sharp Football. Mix with that their lack of competent quarterback play that couldn't take advantage of the bodies dedicated to the run, and the Falcons rushing game fell from 4th in EPA/play in 2022 to a ghastly 28th in 2023, according to rbsdm.com.
Contrast that to the Los Angeles Rams offense, which it is suspected offensive coordinator Zac Robinson will be emulating: The Rams were 30th in loaded boxes faced in the run game with only seeing 7+ defenders 63% of the time. Because of that freedom, running back Kyren Williams was able to break out for over 1100 yards and 12 touchdowns, the first time for the Rams since former Falcons legend Todd Gurley in 2018.
The Falcons offense has vastly improved through the air with the addition of Kirk Cousins and the induction of speed this off-season. However, with the threat of the passing game back in play, the elite tandem of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier may break out as the true stars of this offense when it is all said and done.
