PFF NFL Draft Analyst Trevor Sikkema ranked all 32 starting NFL quarterbacks/quarterback rooms and tiered them into seven categories as we approach the dead period of the off-season. Kirk Cousins, starting quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons, was ranked 15th in the NFL amid the large nine-player, fourth-tier Sikkema labeled "The Melting Pot of Starters." Cousins was fifth in that tier behind Green Bay's Jordan Love, Jacksonville Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence, San Francisco 49ers' Brock Purdy and Miami Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa.
Honestly, this feels too low for Cousins. He has been one of the most consistently successful NFL quarterbacks over the past few years. In his past six seasons, he has not posted an overall season grade below 80.0 and has just one sub-80.0 passing grade. But 2023 showed hints of a downturn.
Cousins played in only eight games in 2023 and was on pace for his lowest big-time throw rate before going down with a torn Achilles. However, he was also on track for his lowest turnover-worthy play rate. His adjusted completion percentage was at a career high but his average depth of target was at a career low. Now he’s 36 years old and coming off an Achilles tear with a new team in Atlanta. He has been incredibly efficient to this point in his career, and we’ll see if can be more aggressive in 2024.
According to Sikkema, there appears to be room for concern about whether Cousins will be aggressive enough to elevate the Falcons offense, especially after a major injury.
Cousins is not known to be a check-down merchant, but he is known as the ultimate system quarterback. As long as things are good around him, he can get the most out of the offense in structure. The knock on Cousins has always been that he isn't able to elevate the offense with much creativity outside of the structure of the offense.
Atlanta's greatest strength is the offensive infrastructure already in place before the 2024 season with versatile weapons Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson. In 2023, Desmond Ridder could not take advantage of the infrastructure, posting a 51.9 PFF grade, the worst of the 38 qualifying quarterbacks and the 24th-worst rate in Adjusted EPA/play. Before his injury, Cousins posted an 86.1 PFF grade and ranked eighth in Adjusted EPA/play. The hope is that Cousins elevates the Falcons offense to what they were supposed to be last season: A frisky playoff team that had the potential to win a playoff game.
However, if what Sikkema is projecting is correct, we could see a regression in Cousins at the worst possible time for the Falcons. Vertically stretching the field forces defenders to back off the line of scrimmage and open up the horizontal passing game, a key to a Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan offense projected from new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. Without that downfield component, the defense doesn't have to respect the downfield passing game and can muddy up the intermediate and short parts of the field, like they did last year with Ridder at the helm.
If Cousins can play as efficiently as he has in recent years, posting the 12th-best EPA/play since the start of the 2022 season, the Falcons' offense should be much more than a much-improved unit in 2024, they should be a threat to the entire NFC.