The Athletic's Austin Mock used the recent schedule release to break out his NFL Projection Model to simulate "each game of the regular season and playoffs until a Super Bowl champion emerges." He repeated this process 100,000 times for a "realistic measure" of each team's postseason chances. The simulations mostly came out as expected: The AFC dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens, while the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys ruled the NFC. However, fourth on that list in the NFC, with a 73.4% chance to make the playoffs: the Atlanta Falcons. Mock called Atlanta "surprise contenders" along with the Los Angeles Chargers, whose 57.7% chance ranks sixth in the AFC.
The Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers are a bit of a surprise with how high they sit as potential playoff teams, but each has a top-five easiest schedule, according to my model. Both teams should also see a significant upgrade at the quarterback position compared with last year. The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins, who is a borderline top-10 quarterback in the NFL, and the Chargers are welcoming back Justin Herbert after an injury-riddled season and now have Jim Harbaugh taking over as coach.
General Manager Terry Fontenot and head coach Raheem Morris have done a considerable amount to construct a viable world where Atlanta is competitive in 2024 and beyond. Whether that's the overhaul of the receiver room to become a more modern, faster offense or spending over $100 million on Kirk Cousins, there has been a demonstrative effort to make sure that the Falcons are making a push for the playoffs.
So, should it be a surprise that Atlanta is seen as playoff contenders? I'd take it a step further and say the Falcons should be expected to make the playoffs.
2024 is Terry's fourth season as General Manager and there has to be some heat from upstairs to start winning now. Last year marked the sixth straight season without a playoff berth, the longest streak since the Falcons spent most of the 80s at the bottom of the division (1983-1990). Atlanta can't have another year without a playoff berth, Fontenot certainly can't survive it.
The offense is without question ready to compete for a playoff spot and could win a playoff game or two, there is that much talent on that side of the ball. The question becomes whether the defense can match the offense's effectiveness, and projecting success on that side of the ball isn't too far-fetched.
Morris and Lake were given a roster in Los Angeles that was dead last in defensive spending in 2023. The least amount of resources allocated of any franchise in the NFL. That defense ended up being 20th in EPA/play and 11th in defensive success rate. They took lemons that weren't even ripe yet and made passable lemonade. Enough to where the Rams, who were projected to not even win seven games, made the playoffs.
So, one more time, should anyone be surprised that Falcons are playoff contenders? Absolutely not. If anything, that should be the expectation for this year.