Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio reports that if necessary, there is a "very narrow exception" that the Atlanta Falcons can use to move off the Kirk Cousins contract sooner rather than later. With the Falcons selecting Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall in the 2024 NFL draft, the quarterback room situation has a chance to be at least awkward, if not disastrous. So, Florio hatches a plan to give the Falcons options to get out of the Cousins deal just in time to allow Atlanta to enjoy at least a few years of Penix's rookie contract.
With only $27.5 million in salary due to Cousins in 2025, it wouldn’t be hard to find a suitor for Cousins if both sides decide to make a clean break after one season. (Cousins has a no-trade clause.) While the dead-money charge for a pre-June 1 trade would be $37.5 million, the Falcons would avoid $37.5 million in additional guarantees to Cousins. Also, if they believe Penix is ready after only one year, the fact that they have their starting quarterback under a rookie deal makes it easier to absorb the Cousins cap charge.
That said, they still will have paid him $62.5 million for only one season, if he’s traded in 2025.
A trade after 2025 (and before June 1, 2026) would result in a smaller cap charge of $25 million. Under that scenario, the Falcons will have paid Cousins $90 million for two years.
It all comes down to when they decide to flip to Penix. They’ve tried to defuse the situation by suggesting Penix could sit for four or five years, which is ridiculous on its face. The truth is that a pivot to Penix could happen within a year or two without major contractual complications for the Falcons.
There’s also a slim chance that the Falcons could trade Cousins before the start of the 2024 season. If Penix lights it up in OTAs, if another team loses a starting quarterback before the regular season starts, and if that team and Cousins decide to get together, a trade after June 1, 2024 would have the same cap effect as a trade before June 1, 2025. And with $12.5 million of the Cousins signing bonus due in September 2024 and another $12.5 million due in December 2024, the new team could agree to pay the money.
I want to iterate here that the chances that any of these scenarios play out are slim to none. The most likely scenario is that Penix, Cousins and Heinicke go into 2024 with Cousins starting, Heinicke as the backup and Penix there in case of emergency.
Having Penix get the kinks out of his game should do him good, even if he was one of the more pro-ready quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL draft. There's still plenty for him to learn and plenty for Cousins to get out of Atlanta, even with the situation not playing out as he hoped when he signed the contract.
But as Florio said, "If Penix quickly shows he can be the guy, there are ways the Falcons can accelerate the timetable to pivot from Cousins to Penix."
