After most NFL seasons, we're discussing the Steelers' chances of returning to the playoffs and competing for an AFC title. This year, after Pittsburgh failed to make the postseason in 2018, all the focus is on the off-field drama surrounding wide receiver Antonio Brown and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
Here we lay out all the financial ramifications associated with those two players.
How much will the Steelers save by cutting Antonio Brown?
If Brown is cut, the Steelers will need to account for at least $21.12 million on the salary cap.
This $21.12 million is dead money left over from a $19 million signing bonus paid to Brown in 2017, plus a $12.96 million salary conversion paid to Brown in 2018 that was intended to help the Steelers with their salary cap. The $19 million was prorated over five years, and the $12.96 million was prorated over four years. Both have three years of proration remaining, and the Steelers need to account for all of it regardless of whether Brown is on the team next year.
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If Brown is released, the team will save $1.045 million in cap room. At least $495,000 of that would be offset by whomever takes his place on the roster, so the effective cap savings are nil.
In terms of cash, the Steelers would save $15.2 million by releasing Brown in March. From a salary cap perspective, though, this is money that would be saved for the future.
As the above chart illustrates, the Steelers would save $15.125 million by cutting Brown now rather than in 2020, and $26.425 million by cutting him now rather than in 2021.
This type of analysis makes sense for an underperforming/declining player. If a team has an 80 percent chance of cutting a player in 2020, it might as well just do it now even if it looks bad on the cap.
Brown isn’t that type of player, though. The odds of Brown being cut for football reasons in 2020 are not good, so there is no need to accelerate the process; he is worth the contract he is being paid.
If the Steelers cut Brown, it will be because they think there is irreparable damage between the WR and the organization; they would not give it a shot in 2019 only to cut him in 2020. The Steelers are either in or out.
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Is the Steelers’ salary cap a concern?
Yes and no. In general, the salary cap is no longer a barrier for moves like this. Salaries have not kept up with the rising cap, and teams have learned to work the system better to absorb cap hits like this. The only true protections players have anymore are fully guaranteed salaries, and teams pretty much only peg those to years of expected contributions.
With that said, Browns cap hit would be a ridiculous number. The highest one-year cap charge we have seen is $19.3 million for Peyton Manning in 2012, and that was offset in part by the fact that the team declined an option on him.
To put things in perspective, the Steelers have had a total of about $31 million in dead money combined across three seasons. Taking on such a big charge for Brown would be completely against their way of doing business.
Can the Steelers use a post-June 1 cut on Antonio Brown?
A June 1 cut allows a team to manipulate the accounting for dead money on a contract. In this scenario, the Steelers would release Brown on the first day of free agency with the June 1 designation. From the start of free agency to June 1, Brown would still count on the Steelers’ salary cap at $22.165 million — his full cap charge. On June 2, Brown would be removed from the books as an “active” player and only have his prorated charge count against the cap, which is $7.04 million. That would lead to a cap savings of $15.125 million in 2019.
But don’t get too excited. The other $14.08 million would simply move to 2020. So all the June 1 does is delay the inevitable.
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A June 1 cut typically is used when a team can’t deal with the cap charge of releasing a player because of other cap-related issues. It allows the team to pretty much spend right up the cap in March, when free agency is in full swing, knowing it has a big cushion coming in June.
Because the Steelers usually are not big spenders in free agency, and because their cap (while not great) is not problematic, they might not benefit from a June 1 designation … other than from a psychological standpoint in not seeing the $20 million number for one year.
Also worth noting: In 2020, there could be some different rules regarding dead money, and some teams might not want to push too much into the future.
What about an Antonio Brown trade?
A trade and a cut are treated identical on the cap unless the player has guaranteed salaries remaining in his contract. Brown has none.
So cut or trade, the cost for Brown is $21.12 million on the cap.
Can the Steelers designate Antonio Brown a June 1 trade?
No. The June 1 designation can only apply to players who are released. A team can still get the benefit of post-June 1 accounting on a trade, but it would have to make the trade on June 2 or later. That is problematic for a few reasons.
The main issue: Brown has a bonus due if he is on the roster on the fifth day of the league year. That payment then becomes the Steelers’ responsibility and counts on their cap regardless of whether he is traded. So the dead money total moves to $23.62 million, and the number for 2019 up to $9.52 million. That moves the savings down to $12.625 million rather than $15.125 million.
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The two teams in the trade could avoid this by renegotiating Brown’s contract to delay the bonus until later in the year (say training camp), but that would require it to be guaranteed, likely with language that doesn’t void the guarantee if he doesn’t show up to workouts, mandatory OTAs, etc.
There also is no benefit for Brown to delay his release into the summer. He would have the best opportunities to earn a big contract in March, not July. So he should not work with Pittsburgh on anything that prevents him from hitting free agency in those first days of the league year.
Can the Steelers get help with dead money cost in trade?
No. The dead money is a sunken cost. There is nothing Brown can do to make a trade more appealing for the Steelers, and there is nothing a team can do to trade cap space for Brown to make the dead money less difficult for Pittsburgh. It’s against the rules.
The only way to offset some of the salary would be to make a star-for-star kind of trade with a team that had excessive cap room to eat other costs.
Let’s say the Giants created a bunch of cap room by releasing some veterans and were willing to do an Odell Beckham-for Brown swap — and this is pure fantasy, nothing more. In theory, the Giants could pre-pay $10 million of Beckham’s salary as a bonus before the trade. In this case, rather than taking on $17 million in Beckham salary, plus the $20 million-plus in dead money for Brown, the Steelers would only take back $7 million in salary for Beckham. It’s a $10 million swap. A team could do something similar by signing a free agent the Steelers want, and then trading that player to the Steelers after paying him the signing bonus, getting Brown in return.
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Would a team want to trade for Antonio Brown?
A team that traded for Brown would get him at cap costs of $15.125 million in 2019, $11.3 million in 2020 and $12.5 million in 2021. None of that is guaranteed. The team would get one of the top wide receivers in the NFL at a cost of $12.975 million per year with no guarantees.
Of course they would want to trade for him. That’s a steal.
What would the Steelers’ trade compensation be for Antonio Brown?
Probably pretty high. Brown is still good, and the new team would have him under contract for three seasons.
As a point of reference, the Eagles in 2018 gave up a third-rounder for a half-season of Golden Tate, and the Texans parted with a fourth for a potential year and a half of Demaryius Thomas. Brown obviously is far better player than both. Just a guess: The Steelers would agree to a deal for either a second-round pick from a team picking in the top five or a late first from a team picking later in the order. Either would need to be paired with another mid-round pick.
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Why would Antonio Brown want a trade from the Steelers?
Brown should not want to be traded. If he wants out of Pittsburgh, he should do everything in his power to be released from his contract. There is far more money for him in free agency.
While Brown can’t block a trade, he can do enough to make teams wary of trading for him unless they give him a raise.
Should the Steelers move Antonio Brown?
From a financial perspective, it makes no sense.
Though Brown probably won’t be happy when and if he loses more targets to JuJu Smith-Schuster, the team is better off with both receivers on the field. Pittsburgh is built to compete now, and it must maximize that with the most talent it can get.
Brown may be an issue at times, but there is no reason the team can’t work through his issues and get everyone on the same page. It’s just too hard to come up with a scenario in which the Steelers come out better without Brown.
What about Ben Roethlisberger? What if the Steelers trade the QB instead?
Roethlisberger is in the final year of his contract, so there would be far less impact on the salary cap than there would be in a Brown move.
Moving on from Roethlisberger in a trade or cut would leave Pittsburgh with just $6.2 million on their cap as dead money while freeing up $17 million this year.
Roethlisberger would draw more of a premium than Brown in a trade because of the position he plays, even though he only has one year remaining on his contract vs. three for Brown. From a cap perspective, both would be about equal for the trading team ($15.2 million for Brown and $17 million for Roethlisberger).
With that said, from a pure value standpoint, the Steelers are not likely to move the QB over the WR. This is not like the Colts cutting Peyton Manning because they know they can replace him with Andrew Luck.
The Steelers with Roethlisberger, Juju Smith-Schuster and, say, a second-round pick would compete for the AFC North title. The Steelers with Joshua Dobbs, Brown, Smith-Schuster and, say, two first-rounders rounders probably would not compete.
So if the Steelers are forced to move one of them, Brown would be the choice. If the Steelers need salary cap relief, look for them to extend Roethlisberger’s contract and spread out his cap hit.