Antonio Brown is the most underpaid veteran in the NFL. Playing on a contract worth millions less than his market value, Brown’s numbers the last three years are staggering.
The Steelers wide receiver has done everything in his power to earn a raise, but with two years remaining on his contract, it is an uphill battle for him to receive that raise.
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How did Brown end up here?
In 2012, the Steelers were embroiled in a contract dispute with Mike Wallace, who was considered their top target at the time, that seemed to have no hope of being resolved. Instead they decided to sign Brown to a five-year contract extension worth just under $8.4 million per season rather than continuing to pursue Wallace.
It actually was a risky contract for the Steelers. Brown had been a non-factor as a rookie before his 1,100-yard season in 2011. There is always the fear of the one-season wonder, and in general, the NFL does not reward low draft picks with big contracts unless they prove themselves over and over again.
So when the Steelers offered a contract that was in line with some of the higher-paid receivers in the NFL, Brown agreed to the deal. The Steelers were betting on Brown with the hope they would reap the reward in the final years of the contract if the receiver market increased.
The Steelers clearly made the right call.
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What is Brown’s market value?
Here is how Brown’s last two seasons stack up with the top compensated receivers in the NFL in the two years prior to signing their most recent contract.
Brown is about 35 to 45 percent more productive than the other top receivers in the NFL despite being paid 40 percent less than the average, which works out to being worth around $19 million a season over the average “elite” wide receiver. NFL contracts rarely work that way — a $4 million jump from the top contract is a rarity — but some arguments can be made on Brown’s behalf.
The strongest argument is to point out Doug Baldwin of the Seahawks, who just signed an $11.5 million contract extension. While Baldwin plays the role of the top target in Seattle, most teams would view him as a high-level No. 2 receiver. Baldwin has just one 1,000-yard season in his career. His salary represents around a $3 million raise from what had been the 1A/2-type receiver top market value.
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Brown more than likely would earn less than $18 million a year. Given that Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald both at one point in their careers earned over $16 million a season, that figure probably would make Brown happy. Being able to say he is the highest-paid player in the history of the position is generally enough to get a contract done. If Brown continues to perform at this level, he may be a bargain even at that price.
Considerations for a contract
If the Steelers are willing to do a new deal, a few things might impact the negotiations. One is the organizational philosophy of not guaranteeing a salary beyond the signing bonus. The top players in the market average $40 million in total guarantees and nearly $30 million guaranteed at signing.
But first-year bonus compensation is just around $20 million. Brown is currently slated to earn $14.96 million in the next two years and clearly is in no danger of being cut. A $20 million signing bonus would represent a new guarantee of just $5 million, so in terms of true guarantees, this is not going to be a big number.
The second consideration deals with a small CBA rule that prevents a player who renegotiated his contract from signing another contract that increases his cap charges over the original terms. Brown agreed to a new contract late in the month of August, so within those rules, any deal signed before then would have an added constraint.
While that would not prevent a contract, it might add another layer to negotiations and will likely tie the Steelers to a bigger-than-desired signing bonus and bigger cap numbers in the first few contract years. It may be worth it for both sides to wait until September to make any contract official.
Will the Steelers consider a new deal?
While Brown is clearly underpaid, there is nothing forcing the Steelers to rework his contract. Much like our look last week at Michael Bennett, this is a contract to which Brown agreed when it benefited him. The risk in that lies when you outplay the contract. Pittsburgh’s policy has been not to open negotiations with players who have multiple years remaining on contracts, and Brown does have two years left. So it’s unlikely the team will make an exception.
That said, there could be benefits to making an exception. Brown will be 30 when his current contract expires, and that could put the Steelers in a difficult position of extending a productive player towards the back end of his career. By signing him this year, they can tack two years worth of bonus proration to his current contract, giving them much more flexibility if the fall beyond 30 is quick.
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This is probably unlikely, though. Expect the Steelers to offer a short-term solution by taking some of Brown’s $8.7 million 2017 salary and paying it to him in 2016 — identical to what the Steelers did last season when Brown was upset about his contract.
Brown would agree again, and we would do this all over again in 2017, when he should take a much harder stance if a deal is not done quickly in the offseason.