At least four quarterbacks are expected to go in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, but it certainly seems like Anthony Richardson is the most polarizing of the group.
Richardson, who started for Florida during the 2022 college football season, has earned some buzz during the draft season. He showed off his elite, physical skill set at the 2023 NFL Combine by setting quarterback jumping records and blazing a 4.43-second 40-yard dash.
Just how good was Richardson's workout? Well, Kent Lee Platte — the creator of the Relative Athletic Score (RAS) metric — measured that the Florida quarterback posted a RAS of 10.00. That makes him the most athletic quarterback to enter the league since 1987, and likely the most athletic to ever play.
Anthony Richardson is a QB prospect in the 2023 draft class. He scored a 10.00 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 1 out of 890 QB from 1987 to 2023.
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 30, 2023
Just putting this out there early.https://t.co/g6dAq3ALm4 #RAS pic.twitter.com/hjB54xb3o2
That workout and those measurements were enough to send Richardson rocketing up draft boards. He even has been thrown into the mix for the No. 1 pick by certain prognosticators.
So, what's so polarizing about the athletic quarterback? Well, he started just one full season at Florida and his results were a mixed bag. He showcased a great arm, but his accuracy was fleeting. He will need to work to be more consistent at the NFL level to survive as a starter.
Indeed, there are many possible outcomes for Richardson's career. He probably has the highest ceiling and lowest floor among the first-round quarterbacks in 2023.
Here's a look at some of Richardson's higher-end pro player comparisons as well as some players he could resemble if things don't go well.
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Anthony Richardson NFL comparisons
Richardson has a tantalizing combination of size, speed and arm strength that are enough to make any team drool. He may be raw, but many see similarities between him and a few of the NFL's best do-it-all quarterbacks from the last decade.
Below are some of the most common, high-end comparisons for Richardson as NFL fans, analysts and teams alike try to assess his next-level potential.
Cam Newton
Newton's name is the one bandied about most when discussing Richardson, and it makes a lot of sense.
Both Newton and Richardson are physically impressive quarterbacks who have a great combination of size and speed. The two quarterbacks carry a lot of weight on their frames — Newton was 6-5, 248 pounds at the 2011 NFL Combine while Richardson was 6-4, 244 pounds at the 2023 NFL Combine — but even despite that, both are effective scramblers.
Why? Because they are hard to tackle and possess the speed to escape some of the faster defenders on the field.
Beyond that, they have similar playing styles, as WalterFootball.com's Charlie Campbell outlined while comparing the two passers.
Newton was a strong-armed dynamic athlete who could make plays other NFL quarterbacks could only dream of. Richardson makes those running plays and deep ball passes on occasion.
Indeed, both Newton and Richardson possess big arms, but each came with accuracy concerns. Newton's 66.1 completion percentage at Auburn was far better than Richardson's 53.8 percent in 2022 at Florida, but Newton still wasn't consistent with his ball placement or footwork when making throws.
Richardson had similar issues with his footwork but struggled with reading the field, as outlined by NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, who also listed Newton as a comparison for Richardson.
Zierlein believes Richardson's ceiling is high, akin to Newton's.
Richardson’s potential to strike with the deep ball, attack the secondary from sideline to sideline and gash teams with his legs creates greater leeway in his projection as a developmental prospect. Ultimately, he will succeed or fail based on his ability to play with better post-snap recognition and deliver the football with consistency.
It isn't just analysts who are seeing the connection between Newton and Richardson. His coach at Florida, Billy Napier, brought up the comparison before the 2022 college football season began.
"I think he's somewhere between Dak Prescott and Cam Newton," Napier told SEC Network in early September.
That this comparison is so omnipresent shouldn't be a surprise. Remember, Newton spent two years at Florida before going to Blinn College and, eventually, Auburn. So, Newton's shadow still looms large with the Gators.
Too, Richardson has modeled his game after Newton. Thus, it makes sense that there would be similarities between the two.
Lamar Jackson
Newton wasn't the only player that Richardson studied and tried to emulate. He explained at the 2023 NFL Combine that he paid particular attention to Newton in his younger days, but he watched a lot of Lamar Jackson during his time at Louisville and with the Ravens as well.
"When I got to high school, just seeing how dynamic Lamar was, I tried to implement both of those guys in my life," Richardson said of Jackson and Newton. "I started calling myself Cam Jackson in the 11th grade, just trying to make big plays."
Richardson chose wisely in modeling his game after those two quarterbacks. Both utilize their mobility to their advantage, and that is something that Richardson did at Florida, whether it was as a runner or just moving around the pocket.
MORE: Why Anthony Richardson called himself "Cam Jackson" in high school days
Jackson and Richardson aren't quite as similar as Richardson and Newton given that Jackson is smaller than the other two at 6-2, 212 pounds. But athletically, Richardson (4.43-second 40-yard dash) matches up well with Jackson, one of the league's fastest (4.34-second 40-yard dash) and shiftiest running quarterbacks.
That's why at least one scout believes that Richardson can have a Jackson-like impact with whichever team drafts him.
"A freak QB who has tools to make an impact like Lamar because he’s such a special athlete," the anonymous scout said of Richardson to The Athletic's Zak Keefer. "But he’s coming from a very simple offense and (has) limited experience."
Jackson didn't deal with the latter-most issue, as he had plenty of experience at Louisville after starting as a freshman. But like Richardson and Newton, he came into the league with accuracy concerns that stemmed from poor footwork. He was able to improve in that area as a pro, especially during his MVP season, so that could help to make teams more comfortable with selecting Richardson.
Still, it's worth noting that Jackson fell to the end of Round 1 in a loaded quarterback class because of concerns about needing time to develop his raw skill set. The same fate may await Richardson if teams sour on his lacking accuracy.
Josh Allen
Sticking with the 2018 NFL Draft class of quarterbacks, Allen is another player to whom Richardson has drawn plenty of comparisons.
The reason? Both have incredible physical skill sets that, in a vacuum, make them worthy of the No. 1 pick. However, each had major accuracy issues in college that led — or will lead — some teams to shy away from selecting them.
ESPN analyst and former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky isn't one of those people shying away from Richardson. He explained in an appearance on "The Dan Patrick Show" that like Allen, Richardson is a hard worker who will be able to improve his accuracy at the next level.
“I have been since the first game of his that I called in college football,” Orlovsky said of being "all in" on Richardson. “I was like, this kid is so super talented and you heard more about him, how intelligent he is, how hard he works, the character.
For me, his player comparison is Josh Allen, that’s where the path is. What I liked about Josh coming out of school was that he was a very loose thrower. Like it wasn’t tight, that’s why I say he’s a very natural thrower. I think Anthony has the natural throwing motion.
Allen's natural throwing motion helped him improve his accuracy at the NFL level. He completed just 56.2 percent of his passes in two full seasons as a starter at Wyoming but saw his completion percentage rise in each of his first three NFL seasons. It has leveled out to a solid, consistent 63.3 percent over the past two years as he has perfected his ability to throw with anticipation and touch.
So, if Richardson can similarly clean up everything surrounding his good-looking throwing motion, his 54.7 completion percentage should also rise.
Orlovsky isn't the only analyst to think this way. Fox Sports' Joel Klatt also drew parallels between Allen and Richardson, while an anonymous scout told ESPN's Jeremy Fowler that Richardson is "a blend of Cam Newton, Josh Allen and Justin Fields."
"The more I watch, the more it reminds me a lot of Josh Allen"@JoelKlatt and @MoveTheSticks compare Anthony Richardson to the Buffalo Bills QB when he was coming out of college 👀 pic.twitter.com/uTtwB8pJep
— The Joel Klatt Show: A CFB Pod (@JoelKlattShow) March 14, 2023
All three of those players were top-10 picks, and it would seem that Richardson is trending toward being one as well.
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What is Anthony Richardson's low-end comparison?
Of course, just because Richardson has a high ceiling doesn't mean that he's guaranteed to pan out. There are plenty of examples of highly-touted quarterback prospects not quite living up to the hype, especially ones with accuracy issues.
Below is a look at a couple of comparisons that Richardson could draw if he is selected early and doesn't pan out.
JaMarcus Russell
This is a comparison that Richardson could draw, especially if he is selected No. 1 overall. However, it might be a bit unfair to compare him to arguably the biggest bust in NFL history.
You can certainly make a case that Russell and Richardson have similar tools at their disposal. Russell had one of the greatest pre-draft workouts of all time, and that is part of what led Al Davis' Raiders to select him No. 1 overall. He had a sky-high ceiling, just like Richardson.
That said, the major difference between Russell and Richardson is that Russell's work ethic and drive were concerns heading into the 2007 NFL Draft. NFL Network's Mike Mayock — who later became the Raiders' general manager — outlined these issues when discussing Russell's potential.
From a physical skill set perspective, I've never seen a college quarterback with more ability than Russell. You put the tape on and it's frightening. The only thing that's going to keep [Russell] from being great is him. What it comes down to is you've got to figure out whether or not this kid wants to be the best quarterback in football. If he wants to be the best quarterback in football, he can be.
Conversely, Richardson's work ethic and leadership skills have been lauded by his coaches. Before the 2022 college football season, Florida's Billy Napier said that he was impressed with Richardson's maturity despite his inexperience at the college level.
"Everybody likes to talk about the physical traits, but I've been impressed with the humility," Napier said of Richardson. "The guy [has] really grown and matured as a leader. He's intelligent, he processes really well and I think he's only going to continue to get better."
MORE: JaMarcus Russell says Raiders weren't there for him during NFL career
With that said, Russell probably isn't the best comparison for Richardson. Sure, they have similarly strong arms and the abilities needed to become high-end starters. But Richardson doesn't have the work ethic concerns of Russell and he comes into the NFL with less starting experience than the former LSU product.
That will give him more room for growth at the NFL level, something that Russell never quite achieved in three lackluster seasons.
Christian Hackenberg
Many will point toward Russell as the bust comparison for Richardson if he is chosen within the top five picks, but Hackenberg probably serves as the better cautionary tale.
Hackenberg was a second-round pick by the Jets in the 2016 NFL Draft who was selected largely because of his raw, physical tools. The 6-4, 223-pound quarterback had the frame and arm strength needed to become a quality NFL quarterback, but it never happened.
In comparing Hackenberg to Richardson, WalterFootball.com's Charlie Campbell referred to Hackenberg as a passer "who struggled with accuracy, confidence and making routine completions."
Indeed, those perfectly encapsulate the shortcomings of Hackenberg, the top-ranked quarterback in the 2013 recruiting class and was the No. 7 recruit overall, per 247Sports.com. That shouldn't have been a surprise considering the warning signs that appeared when he was with the Nittany Lions, like the fact that his completion percentage regressed in each of his three seasons as a starter.
It's easy to imagine Richardson dealing with the same issues if he can't clean up his footwork and field vision. And this comparison will certainly scare NFL talent evaluators who look at the production of the two during their final collegiate seasons.
| Stat | Hackenberg (2015) | Richardson (2022) |
| Games | 13 | 12 |
| Comp. % | 53.5 | 53.8 |
| Passing yards | 2,525 | 2,549 |
| Pass TDs | 16 | 17 |
| INTs | 6 | 9 |
| Yards/attempt | 7.0 | 7.8 |
| Rating | 123.9 | 131.0 |
Of course, it should be noted that Hackenberg started for three seasons while Richardson only had one. So, Richardson certainly has more room for growth, especially when you consider Richardson's athletic ability compared to that of Hackenberg.
Hackenberg has a big arm, but he wasn't a runner and didn't have great mobility. Richardson has that and speed, so he will naturally have a higher floor than Hackenberg.
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Even still, Richardson will need to work hard to hone his delivery and become confident with it. After all, only three quarterbacks in the last 10 NFL drafts — Hackenberg, Trace McSorley and Trey Lance — have been selected after completing less than 55 percent of their passes in a season, as The Athletic reports.
None of those quarterbacks have had success to date. So, Richardson will need to improve his accuracy markedly to avoid disappointing as a first-round selection.
