Relatively quietly, the Raiders are having one of the best offseasons of any NFL team. Their smartest signing might be of a player who won’t step onto the field any earlier than mid-November of the coming season.
No, really, that all makes sense. So does this: The biggest gamble the Raiders have made — re-signing suspended linebacker Aldon Smith for two years — is actually the safest of bets.
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It’s a low-risk, high-reward move. It isn't a complete win-win, but it’s close. If Smith is ready to play when his one-year personal conduct suspension ends Nov. 17, he will return as a 27-year-old with a rare skill to rush the passer that any team would envy.
If he isn’t ready, they’ll move on without him, as they did last season. They won't be out a lot of money, especially because he won’t be paid if he isn’t reinstated or, worse, is suspended again.
The Raiders are providing him a support system. They can do that knowing they already have a safety net.
Smith gave them enough reason in nine games (after the 49ers gave up on him and let him go) to push their chips to the middle. The foundation was being laid by then; right now, even without him, it looks even stronger.
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The defense he could return to would include Khalil Mack and ex-Seahawk Bruce Irvin, plus free-agent signees Reggie Nelson at safety and Sean Smith at corner.
On the other side of the ball is free-agent guard Kelechi Osemele, a huge (no pun intended) addition. They also have the 14th pick in the draft.
The Raiders are putting good pieces into place. Smith would be another good one to fit into place down the stretch. It would be a coup for general manager Reggie McKenzie, with his 11-37 record in his first three years in charge, to have Smith to add to what he has built. The AFC West is in play, particularly if the Super Bowl champion Broncos can't solve their quarterback issues. Smith can be the X-factor.
If . . .
This will be the fourth straight year Smith's season has been disrupted by his personal struggles with substance abuse, mainly alcohol. November is still far away; so is September, when he can first apply for reinstatement by the league. It’s not out of the question that this prediction — that he’ll never play again — could come true.
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Everybody is optimistic. Everybody wants him to put these problems behind for good.
We have re-signed linebacker Aldon Smith.
— OAKLAND RAIDERS (@RAIDERS) April 4, 2016
Read: https://t.co/MasZDV4gp2 pic.twitter.com/9UQQeltWLs
The photo the Raiders posted when he re-signed beckoned a sunny future. Indications are Smith is in a good place and on track, but no one will know until he actually returns. Or doesn’t.
If he doesn’t return, it won't be a disaster for the Raiders. They're taking a leap of faith, but they won't experience a hard landing if they miss. They played the final month-plus last season without him. They’ll play a chunk of the coming season without him. They have a team that can contend now. If the roster maxes out, Smith is a luxury, someone who can put them over the top.
If he doesn’t or can’t return — essentially, if the NFL doesn’t reinstate him or if he’s unable to get his life together — the Raiders won't lose much.
Such a scenario would be heartbreaking for Smith, even tragic, considering his history. The Raiders would feel it personally. But they’re in position to move on.
This is another smart move in a smart Raiders offseason, one that isn't as risky as it seems.