Only the Chiefs or Broncos have won the AFC West over the last eight seasons. That run is likely to come to an end in 2018.
The Chiefs got a career year from Alex Smith last season only to trade the quarterback and move to the Patrick Mahomes era. The Broncos are also working in a new QB in Case Keenum.
The Raiders had a playoff breakthrough in 2016, but they recoiled to 6-10 last season, which promoted their bringing back Jon Gruden as head coach. Derek Carr, once entrenched as a can't-miss franchise QB, now faces an immediate future as uncertain as those of Mahomes and Keenum.
Then there's the Chargers, who last won the division in 2009, the last of four consecutive titles. They still have Philip Rivers, still going strong in his 15 season. Now his long wait for a running game and defense to match his efficient gunslinging is finished, as the 9-3 run to finish 2017 indicates.
With that in mind, here are Sporting News' picks for the 2018 final records in the AFC West.
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AFC: East | West | North | South
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AFC West: 2018 picks, predictions
1. Los Angeles Chargers (13-3)
The Chargers will pick up where they left off at the end of last season. There was some frustration early last year as the team started 0-4 and three of its first five losses were by a field goal or less. But with some breaks in the schedule, the Chargers found their groove and a definitive way to finish games.
Rivers, Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon will keep the offense in good hands without Hunter Henry, while Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram and Casey Hayward will do the same on the other side without Jason Verrett. Gus Bradley was not able to stick around long enough in Jacksonville to see the Jaguars' big breakthrough, but LA's defensive coordinator gets to experience it with the Bolts in a bigger way.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
Mahomes needs a big first season as full-time starter for the Chiefs to stay on their lofty division perch. There are some signs that the offense will be more explosive, but it also might give up more in terms of efficiency and consistency.
Defensively, Eric Berry is back healthy, but he now headlines a back seven without top playmaker Marcus Peters and longtime leader Derrick Johnson. This feels like a transition year for Andy Reid's team, between contending and rebuilding at .500.
3. Oakland Raiders (7-9)
Gruden can have a profound impact in getting the Raiders back to their 2002 form ... or at least their 2016 wild-card form. Gruden and his coordinators, Greg Olson and Paul Guenther, will need some time to put the changing personnel pieces together for their schemes. Carr and Khalil Mack are facing different hurdles to rebound and take over as franchise-carrying talents.
The challenge will be bringing together veterans past their prime and youngsters who still have a lot to learn. There will be some good vibes in The Black Hole, but the better bet is that Gruden will have the Raiders in a groove closer to the time of their relocation to Las Vegas.
4. Denver Broncos (7-9)
Keenum has to be better at QB than the mess that was Trevor Sieman vs. Paxton Lynch. He'll be asked to caretake more than "playmake," as Vance Joseph's team will lean heavily on defense and the running game to get back on track after the coach got a reprieve after a disaster of a season. Bradley Chubb and Von Miller will keep Denver competitive, but the offensive limitations will keep it from reaching John Elway's Mile-High standards.
