The AFC playoff picture already has two expected division winners in the Patriots and Steelers. The upstart Jaguars are about to join them in taking the AFC South, while the stalwart Chiefs are on the brink of repeating in the AFC West.
So it's pretty much down to the two wild-card berths, with six teams still in the hunt. The Titans and Bills currently hold those last two seeds. The Ravens are right there with the Chargers, only a game behind. That leaves the odds stacked against last season's two wild-card teams, the Raiders and Dolphins, who have zero margin for error and at best can only finish .500.
WEEK 16: Playoff picture | Clinching scenarios
The AFC is again the weaker conference, and there's little separating that slew of inconsistent contenders. Based on the current scenarios and looking ahead, here's assessing the playoff chances of each team still in the mix.
No. 5 Titans (8-6)
What's left: vs. LAR, vs. JAX
The Titans' final two games are at home, but that's the only positive after back-to-bac road losses to the Cardinals and the 49ers. Now they face the best team in the NFC West in a horrible matchup before a rematch with the Jaguars, who are much better than the team that lost 37-16 at home to the Titans in Week 2.
The Rams will be looking to win a division title in Week 16, while there's a good chance the Jaguars will still have a shot at the No. 2 seed and second AFC playoff bye going into Week 17. There's not much inspiring about Tennessee's recent play, offensively or defensively, to feel good about the team winning either remaining game.
It would be stunning for a team to fall from 8-3 and first place in its division to completely out of the playoffs, but that's the scenario staring Tennessee in the face. Considering the 8-8 division tiebreaker heartbreak of last season, the Titans need to dig deep to avoid a similar fate.
Another .500 season probably won't be enough. But mustering one more win to get to 9-7 might do the trick, especially if it's a conference victory in Week 17 that would give Titans the tiebreaker over both the Bills and the Chargers with the same record.
The Titans can still win the division title if they win out and the Jaguars get upset in San Francisco in Week 16. Should Jacksonville win in Week 16 before losing to Tennessee, the Titans can also stay ahead of the Ravens for No. 5 should both teams finish 10-6 thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker.
No. 6 Bills (8-6)
What's left: at NE, at MIA
The Bills don't need a Nickel City Miracle to finally get their first playoff berth since 1999, but even in good position now, nothing will be easy to finish the job. Winning out isn't impossible, but it's highly improbable with two division road games remaining, especially with the Patriots still having plenty to play for in Week 16.
So Buffalo's hopes are realistically tied to finishing a sweep of Miami in Week 17 to get to 9-7. The Bills' best bet is having the Ravens go 10-6 and the Titans go 8-8, settling right in between as the second wild card.
Should the Titans, however, also finish 9-7 with one more conference win, they would maintain a conference-record tiebreaker over the Bills. There's also a fair chance of the Titans losing out and the Chargers winning out to get to 9-7. Buffalo loses the head-to-head tiebreaker there thanks to the debacle of starting Nathan Peterman in a 54-24 loss at Los Angeles in Week 11.
MORE: NFC playoff picture
No. 7 Ravens (8-6)
What's left: vs. IND, vs. CIN
The Ravens would be in as either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed if they win out with a favorable home schedule against two bad teams. The Titans hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over them, but the Ravens would have the common games tiebreaker over the Bills after going 5-0 against the Colts, Bengals, Raiders and Dolphins.
Also, given the degree of difficulty of the Titans' and Bills' remaining slates in relation to that of the Ravens, it's difficult to see all three teams finishing with the same 10-6 record. Baltimore's playoff chances are the equivalent of a chip-shot field-goal attempt by Justin Tucker.
No. 8 Chargers (7-7)
What's left: at NYJ, vs. OAK
The Chargers can still win the AFC West despite being swept by the Chiefs, but it would require them winning out and the Chiefs losing two favorable games (vs. MIA, at DEN).
While that's a slim possibility, a wild card is more within reach. The Chargers will be favorites in both of their remaining games to take care of business and get to 9-7. With that, because they can improve their conference record to only 6-6 while the Titans can do no worse than 7-5, the Chargers need the Titans to lose out.
A Tennessee free-fall is definitely in play, and so is a Buffalo split. The Chargers only want to match the Bills, however, because they would lose the tiebreakers should they also tie with the Ravens and/or Titans.
No. 9 Raiders (6-8)
What's left: at PHI, at LAC
The Raiders need to win out, and they need help from other teams winning out and losing out. Oakland wins head-to-head tiebreakers over Tennessee and Miami, but it loses them against Buffalo and Baltimore.
In addition to upsetting the Eagles and Chargers on the road, to get in, the Raiders need to finish 8-8 along with Titans, Dolphins and Bills while wanting the Ravens to pull away and jump to the top wild card.
IYER: Raiders fumble away playoff chances
No. 10 Dolphins (6-8)
What's left: at KC, vs. BUF
The Dolphins need to win out, and they need help from other teams winning out and losing out. Miami wins head-to-head tiebreakers over Tennessee and Los Angeles, but it loses them against Oakland and Baltimore.
In addition to upsetting the Chiefs and splitting with the Bills, to get in, the Dolphins need to finish 8-8 along with the Titans, Chargers and Bills while wanting the Ravens to pull away and jump to the top wild card.
So who gets in?
The Ravens have found their groove against bad teams. There's no reason to think either the injury-riddled Colts or the Bengals are capable of beating them. Baltimore will get in with a good chance to win a playoff game, especially if it faces Kansas City in the wild-card round. The Ravens are the unquestioned best of this bunch.
The best from the rest of the alive teams are the Chargers, and they have a much easier schedule in relation to that of the Titans and Bills. The Chargers were the first team to make the playoffs after starting 0-4, in 1992. It would be appropriate if they became the second team 25 years later.
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