Alright, we'll admit it: Predicting the AFC East for 2018 is an obligation included in our overall NFL picks for the season. We all know the Patriots, barring catastrophic injury, are virtual locks to remain on top for at least one more year.
There are, however, interesting developments behind New England in the division's perpetual effort to close the gap. Per usual, they start with quarterbacks.
Based on SN's picks for the entire 2018 NFL season, here are our predictions for the AFC East.
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AFC East: 2018 predictions
New England Patriots
There's no reason to believe an offseason that produced an uncharacteristic amount of negative headlines will derail the Patriots' dynasty train. But it can't be ignored, either. Because roster turnover has become so routine in New England, the focus will be on Tom Brady, who will be 41 when the season begins. A dramatic drop-off from his superhuman play is the only hope for the rest of the division.
New York Jets
The Jets are in a tricky position in terms of the status of their team in relation to that of their head coach. New York is in transition mode at the game's most important position, but Todd Bowles, a defensive-minded coach, remains at the top. The recent trend in the league is the opposite; pairing a relatively young, offensive-minded head coach with a young QB. Hence the pressure on Bowles to keep the Jets moving in a positive direction.
Buffalo Bills
To say the Bills need stardom from rookie QB Josh Allen as soon as possible is an understatement. Coach Sean McDermott's squad is dealing with some significant changes on defense, while the offense enters the season with the question mark of LeSean McCoy's legal situation.
Miami Dolphins
The depletion of Miami's roster in the offseason was overstated, but we're not going to pretend the Dolphins can compete in the AFC. Naturally, all eyes will be on QB Ryan Tannehill in his return from the knee injury that cost him all of last season. Depending on his play, Miami could be looking at QBs with a position near the top of the draft board in 2019.
AFC East: 2018 picks
1. New England Patriots (13-3)
2. New York Jets (4-12)
3. Buffalo Bills (4-12)
4. Miami Dolphins (2-14)
Brady is a year older. New England's free-agent departures include Danny Amendola, Dion Lewis and exiled Super Bowl hero Malcolm Butler. Receiver Brandin Cooks was traded. Teams keep poaching Bill Belichick’s coaching staff (Matt Patricia to the Lions).
Not a bit of that will affect the Patriots’ nearly two decades of dominance in the AFC East, though. Their 10th straight division title and 16th in 18 years is a lock. You could look beyond their rivals’ constant quarterback churn during the Brady era for a reason, but why bother? This year, the Jets and Bills are easing in new franchise quarterbacks, and the Dolphins are bringing back Tannehill.
Contributing: David Steele