The Packers are headed to their first NFC championship game in three years after holding off the Seahawks 28-23 in Sunday's divisional playoff game. Now another familiar playoff foe is left standing in their way of a return to the Super Bowl for the first time in nine years — the 49ers.
San Francisco won its last two playoff games against Green Bay with a very different team. This year's 49ers, the top seed in the NFC playoffs, routed the Packers 37-9 in Week 12. The second meeting also will be in prime time Sunday (6:40 p.m. ET, Fox) in San Francisco.
MORE: Why these 49ers are too tough for Packers
In the first meeting on Nov. 24, a lot of things went wrong for Green Bay. San Francisco led 10-0 after the first quarter and 23-0 at halftime. The 49ers enjoyed total domination, doing whatever they wanted offensively and defensively.
The Packers getting past a formidable NFC West opponent like the Seahawks was a good warmup for the rematch with the 49ers. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers (16-of-27, 243 yards, 9.0 yards per attempt, 113.7 rating) was on point with the stakes raised in the playoffs at Lambeau Field. But he got plenty of necessary help to win his 11th career postseason game.
Based on the final team stats against the Seahawks, the Packers need to carry over four elements of success if they plan to upset the 49ers in the NFC championship game.
1. Protect Rodgers at a high level
The Seahawks have a decent pass rush led by Jadeveon Clowney, but it had little impact on Rodgers in the divisional round, registering only two sacks and six hits overall while the QB operated from a clean pocket for most of the game. When he faced the 49ers in the regular season, Rodgers was under consistent duress, sacked five times and hit 10 more.
That San Francisco pass rush is now stronger with the return of Dee Ford. The 49ers sacked the Vikings' Kirk Cousis six times Saturday.
The Packers did well in pass protection against the Seahawks despite right tackle Bryan Bulaga being hit with the flu and needing Jared Veldheer to play in his place on the other side of David Bakhtiari. Bulaga should return rested and ready next week.
Either way, Green Bay won't advance to the Super Bowl without winning another battle up front.
2. Scheme to get Davante Adams open all over the field
Rodgers' go-to wide receiver was uncoverable against the Seahawks, catching 8 of his 11 targets for 160 yards (a Packers postseason record) and 2 TDs. The 49ers in Week 12 held Adams, who was then less removed from his toe injury, to 7 catches for 43 yards and a TD on 12 targets.
Richard Sherman and the 49ers' cornerbacks — save for Ahkello Witherspoon's lapse on a 41-yard TD to Stefon Diggs — made life rough on the Vikings' talented wideouts. Sherman, however, doesn't travel in shadow coverage. The Packers move Adams around, and against the Seahawks, they used unique formations (including three tight ends with Adams) to get him into the right matchups.
The Packers didn't have much else going in the passing game, as their backs and other wide receivers were non-factors. Tight end Jimmy Graham, playing off Adams' work downfield, had one of his best games of the season, but it still was only 3 catches for 49 yards on 4 targets.
Rodgers has limited trust in his other targets, and the 49ers' secondary is deep enough to contain Adams. That makes it imperative for Green Bay's No. 1 receiver to have another effectively explosive game.
3. Convert consistently on third down
The Packers were 9-of-14 (64.2 percent) on third-down opportunities against the Seahawks. They set the tone by scoring twice in those situations early in the game.
Then consider the Packers were a miserable 1-for-15 against the 49ers in Week 12. Against both Seattle and San Francisco, Green Bay had limited rushing success. It converted in the divisional round because Rodgers kept the offense mostly "on schedule" with passing and had time to get the ball downfield to Adams, Graham and, one time, Geronimo Allison.
Aaron Rodgers on 3rd Down vs SEA
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) January 13, 2020
9/11 121 yards
1 TD, 0 INTs
1 Sack
155.8 QB Rating
Season high 9 3rd down conversions (9/14 overall)
Nice work Sheriff @AaronRodgers12
The 49ers will do everything they can to win the battles on first and second down so Rodgers isn't facilitated with manageable third downs. The Packers can't force the run on early downs, because Aaron Jones getting stuffed won't be good for Rodgers.
Jones had only 38 yards on 13 carries against the 49ers. He didn't fare much better against the Seahawks (21 carries, 62 yards) despite scoring two short TDs. The ball needs to be more in Rodgers' hands to make amends for a shaky, 104-yard passing game in the first meeting.
MORE: Full schedule for NFL championship weekend
4. Stop the 49ers' traditional running game
Seattle ended up with 24 rushes for 110 yards against Green Bay, but that number is misleading. Of those rushing yards, 64 came from Wilson scrambles off broken-down plays. Otherwise, the Packers gave up 46 yards on 17 rushes, holding Marshawn Lynch to 26 yards on 12 carries with his two short TDs.
Run defense was a big issue for the Packers during the regular season, and they got a break in the divisional round with the Seahawks' depleted, makeshift backfield. Although they will face a non-running QB in Jimmy Garoppolo, they won't get another break against the 49ers' three-headed monster of Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert.
That trio rumbled for 180 yards against a good Vikings run defense Saturday. The 49ers ran 22 times for 112 yards in the first meeting against the Packers, averaging 5.1 yards per carry.
Like the Seahawks with Wilson, much of the 49ers' success in the passing game with Garoppolo is predicated on the running game and the play-action, motion and misdirection created from it. The Packers in the regular season could neither stop the run nor prevent Garoppolo from hitting on big plays downfield to George Kittle and Deebo Samuel.
Rogers out-dueled Wilson, but it will be difficult for him to do the same against Garoppolo the second time around unless Matt LaFleur's offensive coaching and his best supporting personnel come through for him.
The Packers have a big challenge in front of them given the 49ers compared to the Seahawks are much better, more complete team. Green Bay can't afford to be even slightly off in these key areas.
