When the 49ers travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers to open Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX), it will be a battle of the two most promising second-year QBs, Brock Purdy and Kenny Pickett.
Purdy, a 2022 seventh-rounder, played so well late last season and into the playoff that he got the starting nod over Trey Lance, who ended up being traded to the Cowboys. Pickett, a 2022 first-rounder, had a perfect passer rating while starring in the preseason, leading to plenty of hype in Year 2.
But Purdy faces his toughest defensive road test yet against T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, Alex Highsmith, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and others. Meanwhile, Pickett draws the NFL's No. 1 overall defense from last year, fronted by Nick Bosa, the highest-paid defender in league history.
The 49ers and Steelers are a marquee matchup given the franchises have combined to win 11 of the 57 previous Super Bowls. Here's breaking down who will fare better in their latest rare meeting:
49ers vs. Steelers odds, spread, over/under
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Spread: 49ers -2.5 (-110) | Steelers +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under: OVER 41 (-110) | UNDER 41 (-110)
Moneyline: 49ers -130 | Steelers +110
The Steelers are getting plenty of respect here as home underdogs with the teams separated by less than a field goal. The 49ers were 13-7 against the spread through the playoffs last season.
Should you bet the 49ers against the spread?
The 49ers are the more established winning team and have fewer holes overall on defense beyond Bosa, including new star defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (a former Steeler) and the Troy Polamalu-inspired Talanoa Hufanga around ace linebacker Fred Warner. The Steelers are breaking in some new players in the back-seven to better flank Watt.
Purdy will lean on the running game for a 49ers' offense that's designed for him to get the ball out of his hands quickly. He also has Trent Williams at left tackle, while Pickett still has Dan Moore Jr. in front of first-round rookie Broderick Jones. Both teams won't have a lot of success throwing downfield, but the 49ers are more versatile and creative. The 49ers can grind out an away victory by at least a field goal, erasing the weather-related Week 1 disaster in Chicago last season.
Our Pick: 49ers -2.5 (-110)
Should you bet the 49ers-Steelers OVER?
Everything about this game screams low scoring despite the offensive skill talent on the field for both teams at running back, wide receiver and tight end. Purdy and Pickett are good young leaders, but they are each facing top defenses out of the gate. That should prompt more running and punting than fireworks over the Three Rivers.
Our Pick: UNDER 41 (-110)
Best 49ers vs. Steelers prop bet on SuperDraft
49ers RB Christian McCaffrey 59.5 rushing yards
This number is low because of the Steelers' run defense reputation, but 12 backs gained at least 60 yards rushing on Pittsburgh in 2022, including JK Dobbins and Nick Chubb twice each. A lot of the totals came from volume, which CMC should get to take pressure off Purdy.
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